July 23, 2026

1. Prediction market

73 days from the 1º turno, the presidential market registered its largest shift in weeks, with total accumulated volume reaching approximately USD 115.3M (Polymarket via AFOS proxy, fetched July 23, 18:12 BRT). Lula remains isolated favorite at 60.50% (USD 7.61M), flat for the second consecutive day. Flávio Bolsonaro fell to 22.85% (USD 7.62M), and the gap between the two widened to +37.65pp, the largest since July 11, still below the cycle peak of +39.5pp recorded on July 3. Precision reading is warranted: the gap grew 2.10pp without Lula gaining a single point.

The money that left Flávio went to the third-way candidates, not to the favorite. Renan Santos rose to 11.85% (USD 8.34M), fifth consecutive day of gains, and Ronaldo Caiado to 2.05% (USD 5.10M), the second largest gain in the book. Romeu Zema, at 0.45% (USD 4.49M), and Fernando Haddad, at 0.35% (USD 6.33M), remained outside the rotation, a sign that the market separates the field rather than treating it as a bloc. Michelle Bolsonaro, who is not a declared pre-candidate, marks 0.95% (USD 9.17M), and Tarcísio de Freitas, 0.15% (USD 13.55M), the largest individual volume in the book, a legacy anomaly that measures negotiated history, not current conviction (Polymarket).

The strongest movement of the day occurred in the sub-markets. Flávio fell from 78.00% to 70.50% for 2nd place in the 1º turno, a drop of 7.50pp, with Renan at 17.40%. In 3rd place, Renan rose to 68.00%, with Caiado stable at 16.50%. The impeachment of STF minister before 2027 market remained flat at 2.95% (USD 83 thousand), unmoved on the day a Supreme Court justice authorized an inquiry involving the financial circle of the main opposition candidate. With a volume base orders of magnitude below the presidential market, both the variation and the absence of it there should be treated as noise.

In Senate by seats, PL fell from 75.00% to 72.00% (USD 257 thousand), with MDB rising to 20.90%. In 2026 inflation market, the modal band remains 5.00% to 5.49%, at 38.65%, followed by the 4.50% to 4.99% band, at 26.35%, a distribution center that remains above the target ceiling.

2. What polling institutes recorded

No national voting intention poll was published on July 23. The most recent poll remains Gerp/AESP of July 22, which showed a 38% to 38% tie in the 1º turno and Flávio numerically ahead in the direct 2º turno by 46% to 45%, with TSE registration BR-05026/2026. Method note is warranted: many articles circulated about a new AtlasIntel measuring the tariff effect, but the poll was not released. VEJA itself published a piece informing when it will be released, and TSE registration indicates publication scheduled for July 28. Registration is not publication, and no numbers from it enter this synthesis.

The new opinion data came from PoderData, published on July 22, which does not require TSE registration as it measures approval, not voting intention. With fieldwork from July 18 to 20, 2,500 interviews by automated telephone system across 147 municipalities and 2-point margin, the institute measured Lula's personal disapproval falling from 50% to 47%, against 46% approval, and job evaluation as poor or very poor receding from 47% to 37% (CNN Brasil). It is the most favorable reading for Lula in weeks, with a caveat that the survey itself imposes: government evaluation remains disapproved by 51% against 43%, so the improvement is in personal approval, not management. On the other side of the race, CartaCapital highlighted a reading about lack of conviction among Flávio's voters.

📅 Polling calendar - next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE with publication scheduled between July 24 and July 30. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication - institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public consultation.

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000. Status "registered ≠ published" - confirmation of actual release requires verification from two primary sources before citation of numbers. The next top-tier national poll is Datafolha on July 24.

3. Press coverage

The day's main story was judicial. On July 23, it was reported that Supreme Court Justice André Mendonça authorized the opening of a Federal Police investigation to investigate transfers made by Daniel Vorcaro to the production of the film "Dark Horse", about Jair Bolsonaro. According to Correio Braziliense, approximately R$ 61 million were released between February and May 2025, at the request of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, and the investigation seeks to clarify the actual destination of the funds. Diário do Nordeste confirmed the authorization in independent coverage. Flávio denies irregularities and maintains that contacts were limited to the film. From the campaign side, his coordinator classified the opening of the investigation as "excellent", saying he expects it to close the matter.

On another front, PT filed a case with TSE against Flávio over allegations about electronic voting machines, a development from the Smartmatic statement recorded in the synthesis of July 22. Party coordination also tightened on the eve of PL's convention, scheduled for Saturday, July 25: Valor reported that PP signaled neutrality in the presidential race, and Folha registered the Republicanos president stating that PL has not yielded to alliance requests. Michelle Bolsonaro justified her absence at the convention over the need to care for Jair Bolsonaro. In the opposite direction, Sergio Moro declared to Gazeta do Povo that Flávio is the only one capable of defeating Lula, and columnist Dora Kramer registered in Folha the reading that professional right considers him an amateur.

In the states, two relevant developments: former Federal District governor Ibaneis Rocha announced that he will not run for any position, and Cleitinho, pointed out as Flávio's bet for the Minas Gerais governorship, did not attend the Republicanos convention.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The day had no national poll of voting intention and yet produced the largest price displacement in weeks. When the polls do not speak, the movement is internal market repositioning, and this recommends caution with causal readings.
2. Lula's gap over Flávio reached +37.65pp, the largest since July 11, entirely due to the opponent's decline. Three weeks of narrowing were reversed in six days without the frontrunner gaining a single point.
3. The Datafolha of July 24 and the AtlasIntel of July 28 are the next polling tests, and the Renan case arrives at them with the price above any poll reading already recorded in the cycle.-

Sources consulted

articles with direct link to the news (anchor outlets):

• Correio Braziliense - Why the PF will investigate Vorcaro's transfers to film about Jair Bolsonaro made at Flávio's request
• Diário do Nordeste - STF authorizes PF investigation into transfers to film about Jair Bolsonaro
• Folha de S.Paulo - Flávio's coordinator says opening of investigation into Dark Horse film is 'excellent'
• Folha de S.Paulo - PT files action at TSE against Flávio Bolsonaro for false information about electronic voting machines
• Folha de S.Paulo - Michelle justifies absence from Flávio's convention by having to care for Bolsonaro

secondary news items (Google News redirect URL - click resolves to article):

• Folha de S.Paulo - André Mendonça authorizes PF to investigate transfers to film about Jair Bolsonaro
• CNN Brasil - PolerData: 47% disapprove of President Lula; 46% approve
• VEJA - AtlasIntel: when will the new survey on the Lula x Flávio race be released
• Valor Econômico - PP signals to Flávio that party should adopt neutrality
• Folha de S.Paulo - PL has not yielded to our alliance requests, says head of Republicanos about support for Flávio
• Gazeta do Povo - Moro says Flávio Bolsonaro is the only one capable of defeating Lula
• Folha de S.Paulo (Dora Kramer) - Professional right wing thinks Flávio is an amateur
• CartaCapital - The lack of conviction among Flávio Bolsonaro's electorate, according to survey
• G1 - 'Recalculating route': former DF governor, Ibaneis will not run for any position in the election
• Estadão - Flávio's bet for governor, Cleitinho will not attend Republicanos convention in Minas Gerais

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched July 23 18:12 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).