July 21, 2026

1. Prediction market

In the presidential market, the day was marked by near immobility despite two national polls released. Lula remained stable at 60.50% (USD 7.5M), and Flávio Bolsonaro declined 0.10pp, to 26.15% (USD 7.5M). The gap between the two widened to +34.35pp, a rounding movement stemming from the opponent's decline rather than Lula's advance, and remains well below the cycle's peak of +39.5pp on July 3. Total accumulated volume in the presidential market totals approximately USD 114.2M, the signature of real money that sets AFOS Analytics apart from a polling aggregator.

In the third way, Renan Santos remained virtually flat in the winner, at 8.85% (USD 8.2M), maintaining itself as the third largest price in the book, behind only Lula and Flávio, on the day a poll gave him surprising performance. Caiado rose 0.50pp, to 1.85% (USD 5.0M), and Zema remained at 0.85% (USD 4.4M). The contrast that defines the field persists: the three together measure, in declared voting intention, much more than the market attributes to them in the winner contract.

In the placement sub-markets, Flávio leads the second place in the first round with 78.00%, yielding 1.00pp on the day, and Renan leads the third place in the first round with 63.50%, with Caiado second at 16.50%. These are the two contracts where betting on Renan and Caiado has backing-placement rather than victory-and where their price makes more sense than in the winner market.

In institutional and economic markets, the impeachment of STF minister before 2027 remained stable at 2.95% (USD 0.08M), near the floor, in a book with volume orders of magnitude below the presidential, where no variation sustains narrative. In the Senate by seats, the PL rose to 86.00% (USD 0.25M), the most solid asset in the right field across the entire panel. And the 2026 inflation market maintained the modal range of 5.00 to 5.49% priced at 37.50%, with the center of distribution above the ceiling of the target.

2. What the institutes recorded

The national polling drought ended with two rounds released on the same day, and they agreed on essentials and diverged on the runoff. The Indexa (n=2,000, field July 16–19, registration BR-02904/2026) gave 1º turno Lula 41% × Flávio 30%, with Caiado 6%, Zema and Renan Santos 3%; in the 2º turno, Lula 46% × Flávio 39%, and Lula also winning against Zema, Caiado, and Renan. The Real Time Big Data (n=2,000, field July 18–20, registration BR-09247/2026) gave 1º turno Lula 40% × Flávio 33%, with Renan Santos at 9% and Caiado at 7%; in the 2º turno, Lula 45% × Flávio 42% (technical tie), Lula 43% × Caiado 44% and Lula 44% × Renan 35%. Two numbers from Real Time challenge the consensus: Renan Santos jumped to 9%, its highest value in a national of this sample, and Caiado appears numerically ahead of Lula in a direct second round.

In the approval field, the four readings of the week fell between 42% and 49%. Indexa gave approves 49% × disapproves 48%, the least negative of the sample, with 51% saying Lula does not deserve four more years; Real Time gave approves 46% x disapproves 50%. Candidate rejection remained stable and high: Flávio 50% and Lula 48% in Real Time, with Flávio's being the highest in the field in both houses. VEJA also highlighted a vote transfer data point: two in three Flávio voters could change their vote to defeat Lula, a reading that helps explain why the third way field gains momentum in runoff simulations.

The next nationals arrive in sequence: Gerp on July 22 and Datafolha on July 24, both registered with TSE. They will tell whether Renan's 9% and Caiado's competitive 2º turno were signal or noise from a single house.

📅 Polling calendar - next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE with expected release between Jul 22 and Jul 28. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication - institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public consultation.

Source: public registration TSE via AFOS Analytics API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000. Status "registered ≠ published" - confirmation of actual release requires verification from two primary sources before citation of numbers.

3. What the press covered

In government affairs, the calendar became the stage. In a speech at the PDT convention, Lula adopted campaign tone for reelection, with emphasis on democracy, criticism of privatizations, and a message regarding the tariff dispute with the United States. The party conventions, opened on July 20 and running until August 5, are the first structural test of the cycle, when a pre-candidacy becomes a registered slate.

In the opposition and third-way fields, the day's highlight was the early scheduling of the Missão convention, which officially nominated Renan Santos as a presidential candidate on July 20, with Aroldo Medina as vice. The event, originally scheduled for August 1, was moved up on security recommendations after threats attributed to criminal factions, so the candidate would have Federal Police support at the launch. In the other parties, the calendar opened with uncertainties about the running mates of Flávio Bolsonaro and Romeu Zema and incomplete tickets in Rio, Minas Gerais, and Pernambuco. In the internal friction of Bolsonarism, Eduardo Bolsonaro stated that Michelle could never have made the video against Flávio, calling the episode immaturity.

On the institutional agenda, Jair Bolsonaro's defense, under house arrest since March, asked Alexandre de Moraes to restore Flávio's visits to his father, currently suspended by a ruling in effect until mid-October. The Master case continued as a background development, with no new verified fact that justifies treating it as a turning point on this date.

A methodological note: none of today's price movements had an identifiable event trigger. The formalization of Renan and his jump to 9% in Real Time are facts of the day, but the market did not price them as a turning point; his price rose 0.05pp. We describe the coincidence as context, not as cause.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. Two national polls broke the polling drought and agreed on the 1º turno (Lula 40-41%, Flávio 30-33%), but diverged on the runoff: Indexa gave Lula +7pp, Real Time returned it to Empate técnico.
2. Renan Santos had the densest day of the cycle, officially nominated as a candidate by Missão and hitting 9% in Real Time, but Indexa kept him at 3% and the market barely moved, which keeps the distortion open rather than resolving it.
3. Real money ignored the two polls: Lula at 60.50%, gap at +34.35pp and accumulated volume of the presidential at USD 114.2M, with the only new polling signal, Caiado ahead of Lula in a runoff, still pending confirmation.-

Sources consulted

articles with direct link to news (anchor outlets):

• Folha de S.Paulo - Citing threats, Missão advances convention and formalizes Renan Santos as presidential candidate
• O Globo - Conventions begin with uncertainties about Flávio and Zema's running mates, incomplete slates in RJ, MG and PE
• G1 - Convention calendar begins with uncertainty over running mates of Flávio Bolsonaro and Romeu Zema
• G1 - Democracy, privatizations, message to the US: Lula's speech at PDT convention indicates tone of reelection campaign
• G1 - Bolsonaro's defense asks Moraes to restore Flávio's visits to the former president
• Estadão - Eduardo Bolsonaro says Michelle could never have made video against Flávio: 'It was immaturity'
• VEJA - Real Time Big Data: most competitive candidate against Lula in second place is not Flávio
• CartaCapital - How the presidential race stands according to the new Indexa survey
• Exame - Real Time Big Data survey: Lula has 40% and Flávio Bolsonaro, 33%, in the first round
• CNN Brasil - Real Time: Lula has technical tie with Flávio and Caiado in second place

Secondary stories (Google News redirect URL - click resolves to article):

• JOTA - Indexa Pesquisas: Lula has 41% and Flávio Bolsonaro marks 30% in the first round
• Exame - Real Time Big Data Poll: Lula has 40% and Flávio Bolsonaro, 33%, in the 1st round
• Gazeta do Povo - The numbers from the new Real Time Big Data poll for president
• CNN Brasil - Real Time Big Data: Lula is disapproved by 50%; 46% approve
• Poder360 - Flávio is rejected by 50% and Lula, by 48%, says poll
• VEJA - Two in three Flávio Bolsonaro voters can change their vote to defeat Lula
• CartaCapital - How the race for the Presidency stands according to the new Indexa poll

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched July 21 18:24 BRT), TSE registration (official election surveys).