July 24, 2026

1. Prediction market

At 72 days until the 1º turno, the total accumulated volume in the presidential market amounts to approximately USD 115.55M (Polymarket via AFOS Analytics proxy, fetched July 24, 17:31 BRT). After three trading sessions locked at 60.50%, Lula broke through the range and closed at 61.50% (USD 7.63M), his highest value since July 15. Flávio Bolsonaro remained virtually flat at 22.95% (USD 7.64M), up 0.10pp after losing 2.10pp the previous day. The gap between the two rose to +38.55pp, the largest since July 9, when it marked 38.60pp, and remains below the cycle peak of +39.5pp recorded on July 3.

The difference relative to July 23 is one of nature, not magnitude. On that day the gap widened by 2.10pp because the challenger fell; on this Friday it widened by 0.90pp because the frontrunner rose, with Flávio unchanged. No triggering event is identified at the time of the movement, so the correct reading is market momentum, and this synthesis does not attribute the increase to any specific news (Polymarket, series measured in 22 and 90-day windows).

In the field, price shifted from alternatives to the frontrunner, with one exception (Polymarket). Renan Santos remained virtually flat at 11.75% (USD 8.45M), the highest individual volume among the competitive names, above those of Lula and Flávio. Ronaldo Caiado gave back the previous day's gain and fell to 1.75% (USD 5.11M). Jair Bolsonaro settled at 1.05% (USD 5.23M) and Michelle Bolsonaro, who is not a declared pre-candidate, retreated to 0.85% (USD 9.23M). The exception was Romeu Zema, whose price more than doubled, from 0.45% to 0.95% (USD 4.52M), the largest relative variation in the book, with no new poll behind it. Fernando Haddad remained flat at 0.35% (USD 6.33M) and Tarcísio de Freitas at 0.15% (USD 13.57M), the highest individual volume in the presidential book, a legacy anomaly that measures negotiated history rather than current conviction.

The most informative movement of the day was in the sub-markets. In Second place in the first round, Flávio recovered from 70.50% to 74.00% (USD 201 thousand), fully returning the 7.50pp decline from the previous day, and Renan fell from 17.40% to 11.40% (USD 1.07M), the largest decline on the panel for the date. In Third place, Renan remained steady at 67.00% (USD 153 thousand), with Caiado at 16.00%. In plain terms: the market reduced the hypothesis of Renan replacing Flávio in the runoff and maintained him as third-place finisher, without moving his main price.

In Senate by seats, PL declined from 72.00% to 68.50% (USD 258 thousand) and MDB fell to 15.45%. The entire book of this market sums to USD 292 thousand in accumulated volume, against USD 115.55M in the presidential market, so percentage point variation there does not translate to large money. The Impeachment of STF minister before 2027 market rose 0.60pp, to 3.55% (USD 83 thousand), one day behind the investigation authorized on July 23, and remains near the floor. In 2026 inflation market, the modal range continues to be 5.00% to 5.49%, at 39.05%, followed by the range 4.50% to 4.99%, at 26.05%, in a book of USD 77 thousand, a distribution center that remains above the target ceiling.

2. What polling institutes recorded

No national voting intention poll was published on July 24, and the reason merits note. Datafolha was registered with the TSE under protocol BR-01166/2026, with 2,004 interviews and fieldwork from July 22 to 24, and Poder360 listed the round among the surveys released for disclosure this Friday. What circulated throughout the day were announcement articles, such as the one from O POVO informing that the institute would release the first presidential survey after the start of conventions. No results were released by the close of this synthesis. The same standard applied to AtlasIntel on July 23 applies here: registration is not publication, and no figures appear here before actual release. The most recent national poll remains Gerp/AESP of July 22, which showed a 38% to 38% tie in the 1º turno and Flávio numerically ahead in the direct runoff at 46% to 45%.

In the states there was movement, with Real Time Big Data releasing survey for governor and senators in Amapá. In this round, Lula appears with 36% and Flávio with 31% in the first state round, and in the 2º turno the relationship inverts, with Flávio at 44% and Lula at 42%, per independent coverage by Exame and R7, with Poder360 recording the technical tie in the runoff. Quaest released a round testing Lula versus Flávio contest in the country's largest electoral college, and Datafolha published São Paulo surveys for governor and Senate. None of these numbers enter the national panel, which by rule only displays polls of national scope.

📅 Polling calendar – next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE with publication expected between July 25 and July 31. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication - institutes may delay or cancel release, as happened this Friday. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public consultation.

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS Analytics API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000. Status "registered ≠ published" - confirmation of actual release requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers. The Alfa Inteligência poll enters without a classifiable scope in the registry, despite the 2,700 sample size, and therefore cannot be treated as national before release.

3. What the press covered

The story of the day was documentary in nature and concerns Flávio Bolsonaro's parliamentary base. The Progressive Union federation, which brings together PP and União Brasil, had already decided on July 22 to remain neutral in the presidential race, according to Poder360 and Metrópoles, in a meeting of Ciro Nogueira with party leaders. What emerged on July 24 was the machinery behind that decision: G1 reported that the Lula administration acted to convince the federation not to support Flávio, and Folha de S.Paulo recorded that the government moves to distance the center-right coalition from the senator. O Globo added that Antonio Rueda and Ciro Nogueira resist the PL's request to review neutrality, and CNN Brasil reported that without the federation, Flávio seeks Republicans and Podemos. The practical consequence concerns the vice presidency: UOL reported that the definition runs up against precisely the lack of center-right coalition support, and the PL convention on July 25 formalizes the candidacy with no name yet defined for the position.

On the opposite side of the balance sheet, two favorable signals for him. Javier Milei landed in Brazil on July 24 and was invited to speak at the PL convention, according to Folha, with CartaCapital detailing the agenda in São Paulo. And the crisis with Michelle Bolsonaro moved toward reconciliation: his public apology came in a video on the afternoon of July 23 and she responded the same night saying she accepts joining forces, according to Gazeta do Povo, with Metrópoles registering that she must enter the campaign. On July 24, the development reported was that the two should record a video together. Note that on the same day, Michelle's price in the market fell 0.10pp.

In the Master case, the inquiry authorized on July 23 gained definition: Folha de S.Paulo reported that the investigation will address corruption and money laundering and target Flávio, Eduardo Bolsonaro and Daniel Vorcaro. The senator escalated his tone against the corporation and called the director-general of the PF "Lula's puppet", according to Gazeta do Povo. Folha de S.Paulo also reported that his statement with false data about electronic voting machines bothered diplomats, which see potential for impact on the election.

In the center-right field, Ronaldo Caiado attacked an opponent in his own spectrum by saying that voting for Flávio helps reelect Lula and by accusing Lula and Flávio of exploiting the crisis with the United States. On the economic backdrop, Estadão published a survey in which parliamentarians divide over the effect of the tariff hike on Lula and Flávio's candidacies.

4. Day's divergences

In summary

1. Lula's gap over Flávio reached +38.55pp in the presidential market, the largest since July 9, and this time due to the favorite rising and not the opponent falling. Since there is no triggering event at the time, the honest reading is market momentum, not reaction to news.
2. The day's data on Renan Santos is not in the main price, which remained flat, but in the 6.00pp drop in the second place sub-market. The market stopped treating him as a possible substitute for Flávio in the runoff and kept him as third place.
3. The survey that had a date declared to the TSE for this Friday was not released, and the panel enters the weekend with the last national reading being from a house that is a recognized outlier. JOTA on July 26, Nexus on July 27, and AtlasIntel on July 28 are the next tests.

Sources Consulted

articles with direct link to the news (anchor outlets):

• G1 - Lula's Government Acted to Convince PP-União Brasil Federation to Remain Neutral and Not Support Flávio Bolsonaro
• O Globo - Rueda and Ciro Nogueira Should Not Attend Flávio's Convention and Resist PL's Request to Reconsider PP and União Brasil Neutrality
• G1 - After a Month of Crisis, Michelle and Flávio Bolsonaro Should Record Video Together
• Folha de S.Paulo - Government Acts to Keep Centrists Away from Flávio Bolsonaro, and Lula Should Spare Ciro Nogueira in Campaign
• Folha de S.Paulo - Milei Arrives in Brazil to Support Flávio's Candidacy Amid Right-Wing Advance in Region
• Folha de S.Paulo - Dark Horse Inquiry Will Investigate Corruption and Money Laundering and Target Flávio, Eduardo and Vorcaro
• Folha de S.Paulo - Flávio's Comments on Ballot Boxes Concern Diplomats, Who See Potential Effect on Election
• Estadão - Parliamentarians Divided on Effect of Tariff Hike on Lula and Flávio's Candidacies, Research Shows
• VEJA - Quaest Research Tests Lula vs Flávio Dispute in Brazil's Largest Electoral College

Secondary stories (Google News redirect URL – click resolves to article):

• Poder360 - PP and União Brasil decide to maintain neutrality on support for Flávio
• Metrópoles - União and PP opt for neutrality and stay out of Flávio's campaign platform
• CNN Brasil - Without support from the União-PP federation, Flávio seeks Republicanos and Podemos
• CartaCapital - Javier Milei comes to Brazil for meetings with far-right figures; check agenda
• Gazeta do Povo - Michelle responds to Flávio's appeal: "We will join forces"
• Metrópoles - Michelle records video accepting Flávio's apologies and should enter the campaign
• Poder360 - Electoral polls: find out which surveys may be released this Friday
• O POVO - Datafolha releases first presidential poll after start of party conventions
• Gazeta do Povo - Gerp/AESP: the numbers of the presidential poll from July 22
• UOL Notícias - Definition of Flávio Bolsonaro's running mate stumbles on lack of Centrão support
• Gazeta do Povo - Flávio Bolsonaro raises the tone and calls PF director a "Lula's puppet"
• Blog do Esmael - Caiado says vote for Flávio Bolsonaro helps reelect Lula
• Portal iG - Caiado accuses Lula and Flávio of exploiting crisis with the USA
• Exame - Real Time Poll: Lula has 36% and Flávio Bolsonaro, 31%, in the first round in Amapá
• R7 - Real Time: in Amapá, Flávio Bolsonaro has 44% of voting intentions in the second round, and Lula, 42%
• Poder360 - Flávio and Lula tie in the second round in AP, says poll

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched July 24, 17:31 BRT), TSE registration (official election polls).