1. Prediction market

With 66 days to the first round, total accumulated volume in the presidential market is around USD 116.58M (Polymarket via the AFOS proxy, captured July 30 at 5:08pm BRT). Lula rose 1.00pp and returned to 63.50% (USD 7.74M). Flávio Bolsonaro was flat at 23.95% (USD 7.71M), and the gap between them widened from +38.55pp to +39.55pp.

The 63.50% needs a line of context before any reading: the value ties the top of the AFOS series for the third time, set on July 26, July 28 and now July 30, and does not exceed it on any of them. The gap sits 0.25pp below the series maximum, the +39.80pp of July 26. And the distinction that organizes the day is about who moved: the gap widened by movement on one side only, so there was no repricing of Flávio's candidacy. His run of four daily closes on the rise was broken without a fall.

In the chasing pack, Renan Santos fell 0.25pp, to 8.45% (USD 8.59M), below every daily close of the past week. Ronaldo Caiado rose 0.20pp, to 2.55% (USD 5.20M), adding up to 0.65pp over two sessions from the 1.90% of July 28. Jair Bolsonaro stayed at 1.05% (USD 5.26M), Romeu Zema fell 0.20pp to 0.55% (USD 4.57M), Fernando Haddad fell 0.10pp to 0.15% (USD 6.38M) and Tarcísio de Freitas remains at 0.15% (USD 13.66M), still the highest accumulated volume in the book, a legacy anomaly that measures traded history and not current conviction.

The strongest move of the day is not in the winner contract. In first-round second place, Renan Santos collapsed from 11.70% to 6.10%, a fall of 5.60pp in a contract of USD 1.09M, while Flávio rose 0.50pp and reached 79.00%. In third place, in a book of USD 484,000, Renan rose 0.50pp, to 62.00%, and Caiado stayed put at 25.50%. Added together, the three moves say the same thing: the money did not take Renan out of the election, it reclassified where he stands.

In the other markets, impeachment of an STF justice fell 0.25pp, to 3.10% (USD 83,000), undoing part of the previous day's 0.55pp rise. In the Senate, the PL fell 5.50pp, to 65.50% (USD 258,000), and the MDB rose 0.60pp, to 18.20%. In inflation, the modal band is still 5.00% to 5.49%, at 38.30%, and the 4.50% to 4.99% band fell 2.40pp, to 32.50%, in a book of USD 81,000 that is not covered by the double-reading capture guard. A large move in a small book is a record, not a signal.

A note on capture, and this time it is short: the double-reading capture guard ran once and approved, with no divergence at all across the five books it covers. It had blocked on both of the previous rounds. Every price goes in firm, with no declared range.

2. What the institutes recorded

The day's polling is PoderData/Aya (n=2,400, field July 26 to 29, 2pp margin, registration BR-07845/2026, telephone across 677 municipalities in the 27 states): Lula 41% x Flávio 35% in the first round, with Caiado 5%, Renan Santos 4%, Zema 3% and Augusto Cury 3%, plus 5% blank or void and 4% who did not answer. In the runoff, Lula 46% x Flávio 43%, a 3pp difference that fits inside the two margins added together and is therefore a statistical tie (Gazeta do Povo).

The comparison that counts is PoderData against itself, and there the first-round gap did not move: it was 6pp on July 16 (40% x 34%) and it is 6pp now (41% x 35%), with the top two each gaining 1pp, inside the margin. Against AtlasIntel of July 29, which gave 9.1pp, the difference is 3.1pp, but comparing two houses published a day apart and calling that a tightening is swapping rulers mid-measurement. What changed in the round was the evaluation: personal approval at 43% x 49% disapproval, government rating at 44% x 50%, and management at 34% good or very good, 16% fair and 47% poor or terrible, up 10pp against the institute's July 22 round. Rejection tied at 49% for Lula and for Flávio, when AtlasIntel gave 49.4% x 52.9%. The institute also reported runoff statistical ties against Zema and against Caiado, but the exact numbers were not confirmed in a primary source and so do not appear here (Poder360 via aggregator).

Outside the national scope, Genial/Quaest published ten states. In Rio Grande do Sul, Flávio 32% x Lula 30% in the first round and 40% x 35% in the runoff (O Globo). In Ceará, Lula 55% x 22% (O Globo). And in Goiás, Caiado 33%, Flávio 27% and Lula 23%, in the same survey where disapproval of Caiado's state government is 59% (O Globo). Governing with poor ratings and leading the presidential race there are compatible facts, and this synthesis records both without turning one into the other.

📅 Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between July 31 and August 6. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication is confirmed, because institutes can delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each registration number links to the TSE public search.

Date	Institute	Sample	Scope	TSE registration	Conf.
Jul 31	Alfa Inteligência	2,700	not declared	BR-04488/2026	0.7
Jul 31	Vox Brasil	2,100	national	BR-01084/2026	0.7
Jul 31	Real Time Big Data	1,600	state	BR-08354/2026	0.9
Aug 2	Veritá	2,010	state	BR-02249/2026	0.7
Aug 3	Nexus	2,000	national	BR-02874/2026	0.7
Aug 4	Nexus	1,200	national	BR-05573/2026	0.7

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. 🔥 marks samples ≥ 3,000, and this window has none. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirming an actual release requires verifying two primary sources before citing numbers.

3. What the press covered

The day's institutional axis changed author. After two days in which the dispute over artificial intelligence in campaigning ran between the STF and a defence team, on Thursday a party became the petitioner: the Brazil of Hope Federation, which brings together PT, PCdoB and PV, filed at the TSE a petition of more than 200 pages against a network of profiles that, according to the federation's claim, uses AI to attack Lula. The petition's figures, all attributed to the federation, are 1,464,245 combined followers and 23,828 posts, and the reach of more than 10 million cited in the reporting is the total added to the followings of the politicians named, not the network's own. The profile count is 31 in most of the coverage and "at least 32" in one of them. Named as amplifiers are senator Flávio Bolsonaro, deputies Gustavo Gayer, Mario Frias and Gilvan Costa, pre-candidate André Marinho and Leonardo Rodrigues de Jesus, known as Léo Índio. The requests are for content removal, identification of those responsible and suspension of monetization (Folha de S.Paulo, O Globo, O Tempo). The rapporteur drawn was Kassio Nunes Marques (Metrópoles), the same justice in whose chambers the Banco Master CPI writ has sat for more than four months.

And the previous day's framing needs correcting. On July 29 this synthesis recorded that TSE justices saw abuse in the AI video and wanted to curb use of the technology. Thursday's reporting shows something else: TSE justices see interference by Moraes, hold that the discussion belongs to their own court and not to the STF, and, according to the reporting, none of the internal groups intends to apply a severe sanction to Flávio (Folha de S.Paulo, CNN Brasil). It stopped being a case about AI and became friction between two courts.

In the Master case, Thursday brought the furthest-reaching development since the inquiry was opened. The Federal Police is considering asking Interpol to include Flávio Bolsonaro and Daniel Vorcaro in what is known as a silver notice, an instrument that locates assets and funds abroad and which is not an arrest order, unlike a red notice. The target is to trace the R$ 61 million from Banco Master said to have financed the film "Dark Horse", about Jair Bolsonaro's career. The verb here is decisive and this synthesis does not force it: the Federal Police is considering, it has not filed the request, and Interpol has decided nothing (O Globo, InfoMoney, Gazeta do Povo). On the same day, PT members of Congress asked the Federal Police to investigate alleged favouritism by Flávio towards Vorcaro's bank (O Globo).

On the government side, the PSB formalized Geraldo Alckmin as running mate on Lula's ticket on July 29, in Brasília, with a coalition of PT, PCdoB, PV, PDT, PSol and Rede (G1), and the PT national convention that formalizes Lula is set for August 2, in São Paulo. Lula said that "nobody is going to stick their nose into" Brazil's elections, in criticism aimed at the United States and Argentina (Folha de S.Paulo). On the opposition side, Eduardo Bolsonaro withdrew, on July 29, from running for the Senate as an alternate in São Paulo (O Globo). And Estadão recorded that Renan Santos is the candidate boosting the most ads against Lula and against Flávio at the same time (Estadão), which is consistent with a candidacy contesting third place rather than the polarization.

4. Divergences of the day

Market × poll: the favourite's price rose 1.00pp and the day's polling, read inside the house itself, is flat. At PoderData the first-round gap is 6pp, exactly the same as on July 16. It is the third time in seven days that the market moves a full point on a day with no matching polling, and this synthesis records the pattern without asserting cause, because there is no clear triggering event to attribute it to.

Yesterday's convergence undid itself: on July 29 this synthesis recorded the distance between Renan Santos's price and the polling falling to 0.90pp, based on AtlasIntel's 7.8%. PoderData gives 4%, and the distance reopens to 4.45pp. Inside PoderData itself he falls from 6% to 4%. Convergence measured against a single survey is not a trend, and the market went the same way: it halved his chance of reaching the runoff and settled him into third.

Institutional pile-up × price: it was the week's densest day in institutional developments, with a party filing at the TSE, the Federal Police weighing a request to Interpol and open friction between the STF and the TSE. And the only market touching that axis, impeachment of an STF justice, moved in the opposite direction, falling 0.25pp. In a book of USD 83,000 that is noise, not signal, and the honest reading is that the contract is not big enough to respond to the news.

In summary

The price rose and the polling did not move. Lula returned to 63.50%, tied the series top for the third time without exceeding it, and the gap widened to +39.55pp by movement on one side only. PoderData keeps its own house gap at 6pp since July 16.
Rejection tied. Lula and Flávio both come in at 49% at PoderData, when AtlasIntel of July 29 gave 49.4% x 52.9%. One reading does not undo the series, but the asymmetry the panel had been recording did not appear in this one.
The Master case reached the campaign. The Federal Police is considering asking Interpol to trace abroad the R$ 61 million from Banco Master said to have financed a film about Jair Bolsonaro, with Flávio Bolsonaro among the names under consideration. The Federal Police is considering, it has not filed the request.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect — clique resolve à matéria):

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Jul 30, 5:08pm BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).

July 30, 2026