July 31, 2026

1. Prediction market

With 65 days to the first round, total accumulated volume in the presidential market is around USD 117.06M (Polymarket via the AFOS proxy, captured July 31 at 7:25pm BRT). Lula rose 1.00pp and went to 64.50% (USD 7.77M), breaking a ceiling the AFOS series had been matching without exceeding on July 26, 28, 30 and 31, and which had not fallen since April 14. Flávio Bolsonaro rose 0.40pp, to 24.35% (USD 7.76M), and even so the gap widened to +40.15pp, above the +39.80pp of July 26, the maximum of the series that holds both names and begins on May 3. The gap widened with the opponent also rising, so there was no downward repricing of Flávio's candidacy.

In the chasing pack, Renan Santos fell 0.30pp, to 8.15% (USD 8.63M), a fourth consecutive session of decline, and Caiado fell 0.95pp against the 2.55% of July 30, going to 1.60% (USD 5.22M). Camilo Santana rose 0.85pp, to 1.35%, on the day the PCdoB formally backed the Lula-Alckmin ticket, without this synthesis asserting cause. Below 1% were Jair Bolsonaro, Alckmin, Zema and Tarcísio de Freitas, the latter with USD 13.68M, the largest accumulated volume in the book.

In the placing books the signal remains crossed: in first-round second place Renan rose 3.25pp, to 9.35%, and Flávio gave up 0.50pp, to 78.50%; in third place Caiado rose 2.00pp, to 27.50%. On Caiado the series caveat does not soften it, because 1.60% sits below the 1.80% to 2.40% band held since July 22. Impeachment of an STF justice was flat at 3.10% (USD 83,000) and the PL rose 6.50pp in the Senate, to 72.00%. The MDB goes in as a range of 24.65% to 26.65%: the guard ran four rounds, failed all of them and found it divergent only in the last, while the presidential contract repeated.

2. What the institutes recorded

The day's poll is Vox Brasil (n=2,100, field July 26 to 28, margin of 2.15pp, 95% confidence, registration BR-01084/2026): Lula 40.5% x Flávio 31.2% in the first round, with Caiado 5.5%, Zema 3.2% and Renan Santos 3.0%. In the runoff, 47.5% x 41.1%, and the 6.4pp fall outside the two margins added together, meaning it is not a statistical tie, unlike PoderData of July 30.

Three houses measured the first-round gap this week: 9.1pp at AtlasIntel, 6pp at PoderData and 9.3pp at Vox. Two agree around 9pp and the outlier is PoderData. And there is the sequence on Renan Santos, cut by three consecutive institutes, from 7.8% to 4% and now 3.0%. With the price at 8.15%, the distance between market and poll reaches 5.15pp; on July 29 this synthesis recorded the same distance at 0.90pp and called it convergence. It is on the record that the earlier reading did not hold.

📅 Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between August 1 and August 6. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication is confirmed, because institutes can delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol links to the TSE public search.

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. 🔥 marks samples ≥ 3,000, and there are none in this window. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirming actual release requires verification in two primary sources before citing numbers.

3. What the press covered

The day had two axes. The first is about parties and it has two doors. On the morning of July 31, Flávio said Tereza Cristina had accepted the running-mate invitation. Minutes later, the PP announced neutrality, saying it had consulted its state branches and decided not to call a National Convention, which blocks the ticket. The senator shared the party statement and complied, and Flávio replied that he respects it and does not give up (Folha de S.Paulo, O Globo).

And it was not only the PP: hours later Republicanos called a convention for August 4, with the majority of the branches consulted defending neutrality. The verbs are not the same and this synthesis does not treat them as the same: the PP decided, Republicanos has not yet (Congresso em Foco, Metrópoles). On July 24 this series recorded that, without the União-PP federation, Flávio was seeking Republicanos and Podemos. The two doors he tried are closing.

The second axis is judicial. André Mendonça lifted the secrecy of part of the investigation examining whether senator Jaques Wagner received improper advantage to act in favour of Banco Master in the Senate, and the police report that became public identified 74 calls between him and Augusto Lima, a former partner of the bank, across 555 days. The justice also authorized monitoring the location of his mobile phone. Novo asked for proceedings in the Senate Ethics Council and Wagner said he will prove his innocence (O Tempo, Correio Braziliense). On July 30 the same justice had authorized an inquiry into influence peddling by Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, known as Lulinha, and Lula said his son will have to prove his innocence (Poder360). None of these acts is a conviction.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The series top fell, and it fell from above. Lula went to 64.50% and the gap to +40.15pp, both series maxima, in a session where Flávio also rose.
2. Flávio lost two doors in 24 hours, and they are the two paths this series recorded on July 24 that he was seeking.
3. The convergence of July 29 did not hold: the distance between price and poll on Renan Santos went from 0.90pp to 5.15pp.

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Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• O Globo — 'Respeito, mas não desisto nunca', diz Flávio após PP vetar Tereza Cristina como vice
• O Globo — Jaques Wagner diz que vai 'provar inocência' após Mendonça retirar sigilo de investigação no caso Master

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect — clique resolve à matéria):

• O Tempo — PF identifica 74 ligações e mais de 5h30 de conversas entre Jaques Wagner e ex-sócio do Master
• Correio Braziliense — PF detectou 74 ligações e 5h30 de conversas entre Jaques Wagner e ex-sócio do Master
• Metrópoles — PF aponta 74 ligações entre Jaques Wagner e ex-sócio de Daniel Vorcaro
• Congresso em Foco — Republicanos nega aliança com Flávio e indica neutralidade na eleição
• Metrópoles — Republicanos nega apoio a Flávio e amplia isolamento do senador
• Poder360 — Mendonça autoriza que PF investigue Lulinha por tráfico de influência
• Jornal do Comércio — Mendonça autoriza PF a abrir inquérito para apurar tráfico de influência de Lulinha no governo
• Folha de S.Paulo — PP confirma rejeição a aliança com Flávio Bolsonaro e elimina chance de Tereza Cristina como vice
• Gazeta do Povo — PP mantém neutralidade nas eleições 2026

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched July 31 7:25pm BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).