August 1, 2026

1. Prediction market

With 64 days to the first round, total accumulated volume in the presidential market is around USD 117.52M (Polymarket via the AFOS proxy, captured August 1 at 1:49pm BRT). Lula rose 1.00pp and went to 65.50% (USD 7.82M), the maximum of the AFOS series for a second consecutive session. Flávio Bolsonaro rose 0.40pp, to 24.75% (USD 7.79M), and the gap widened to +40.75pp, also the maximum of the series holding both names, which begins on May 3. On both days the record came with the opponent rising alongside: there was no downward repricing of Flávio, there was demand for the front-runner.

Renan Santos is the series finding: he fell 0.55pp and went to 7.60% (USD 8.72M), his lowest value since May 14, in a fifth consecutive session of decline. On July 23 he stood at 12.00% and has since given ground in eight of nine rounds, 4.40pp. Before May 14 the series holds lower values, which is why the window is declared.

The rest of the pack shrank alongside, the difference from July 31, when the signals were crossed: Caiado fell to 1.35% (USD 5.24M) and Camilo Santana gave back 0.90pp, going to his series minimum, 0.45%; Jair, Alckmin, Zema and Tarcísio gave ground or stood still, all below 1%.

In the placing books, Flávio rose 1.00pp in first-round second place, to 79.50% (USD 216,000), and Renan gave way there. In third place, Caiado collapsed 5.00pp, to 22.50%, undoing the previous day's gain. Impeachment of an STF justice was flat at 3.10% (USD 83,000) and the PL rose in the Senate, to 72.50%. The guard failed the first round and approved the second: prices go in firm.

2. What the institutes recorded

There was no new national poll. The latest remains Vox Brasil of July 31 (n=2,100, field July 26 to 28, margin of 2.15pp, BR-01084/2026): Lula 40.5% x Flávio 31.2% in the first round and 47.5% x 41.1% in the runoff.

The poll of the day is a state one and does not enter the national set: Datafolha in Pernambuco has Lula 57% x Flávio 22%, and in the governor's race Raquel Lyra 48% x João Campos 42%, tied in the runoff (g1, Jornal do Commercio).

With Renan at 7.60% in the market and 3.0% in the polling, the distance between the two narrowed from 5.15pp to 4.60pp, from the price side. On July 29 this synthesis called that distance, then 0.90pp, convergence; it quadrupled and is now receding.

📅 Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between August 2 and August 7. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication is confirmed: institutes can delay or cancel. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol links to the TSE public search.

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. 🔥 marks samples ≥ 3,000, and there are none in this window. Status "registered ≠ published": citing numbers requires verification in two primary sources.

3. What the press covered

Saturday was about conventions, and the most visible one had Flávio on another candidate's platform. Republicanos made official in São Paulo the bid of Tarcísio de Freitas for re-election as state governor, but Tarcísio himself avoided nationalizing his speech (O Globo, Folha de S.Paulo). This synthesis separates what the coverage merges: Saturday's is a state convention, and the Republicanos national convention, which decides the presidential alliance, is on August 4 (Estadão). Flávio remains without a running mate four days from the August 5 deadline, and Michelle Bolsonaro did not confirm her Senate bid (Folha de S.Paulo). In the government camp, the PT held conventions in Ceará and Bahia, and the national one that makes Lula official is on August 2 (g1).

On the judicial axis, the fact is from July 31. André Mendonça authorized a second inquiry by the Federal Police into Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, known as Lulinha, over his dealings with Dataprev, a day after the first one, over the Health Ministry (g1, Estadão). These are two open inquiries, and an inquiry is not a conviction. In the Master case, Novo filed a petition against Jaques Wagner with the Ethics Council, on the same day as the Bahia convention that made his name official.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. Two series tops in two days, and in both the gap widened with the opponent rising alongside.
2. The whole chasing pack shrank, and Renan has accumulated 4.40pp of decline across nine rounds.
3. The convergence of July 29 recedes: the distance between price and poll fell to 4.60pp, from the price side.

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Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• O Globo — Tarcísio é lançado candidato à reeleição ao lado de Flávio em convenção do Republicanos em SP
• g1 — Mendonça autoriza PF a investigar suposto tráfico de influência de Lulinha na Dataprev
• Estadão — PF pede segundo inquérito para apurar tráfico de influência de Lulinha e empresário na Dataprev
• Folha de S.Paulo — Michelle deve confirmar candidatura ao Senado em evento com Flávio e lançar irmão como suplente

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect — clique resolve à matéria):

• Folha de S.Paulo — Tarcísio se lança ao lado de Flávio e diz amar Bolsonaro, mas foca SP e evita nacionalização
• Estadão — Republicanos lança candidatura de Tarcísio em SP, com discurso de Flávio e ausência de caciques
• g1 — 'Enquanto eu viver, a extrema-direita não voltará a governar este país', diz Lula em convenção do PT no Ceará
• BR104 — Lula oficializa candidatura à reeleição em convenção do PT neste domingo
• Diario de Pernambuco — Lula lidera em Pernambuco com 57% e Flávio Bolsonaro soma 22%, aponta Datafolha
• Jornal do Commercio — Lula mantém vantagem em Pernambuco e aprovação do governo segue estável, aponta Datafolha
• Pleno.News — Michelle diz que vai definir com Bolsonaro se será candidata
• O Globo — Mendonça autoriza investigação da PF sobre atuação de Lulinha na Dataprev por suspeita de tráfico de influência

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Aug 1, 1:49pm BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).