August 2, 2026

1. Prediction market

Sunday inverted the mechanism of the two previous sessions. Lula held flat at 65.50% (USD 7.90M) and Flávio Bolsonaro fell 0.20pp, to 24.55% (USD 7.82M), breaking six sessions without a decline: the gap widened to +40.95pp from the rival's side, not the favourite's. The series high is now behind us, and the window has to be stated: Lula's maximum is 66.50% and the gap maximum is +41.80pp, both from the August 1 close, in a 108-day series checked straight against the database. Total accumulated volume in the presidential market is USD 118.11M.

Renan Santos was the only strong move: up 0.35pp, to 7.95% (USD 8.82M), breaking nine rounds of decline and rising in all three books, with 63.50% in third place (USD 168K). The turn does not undo the arc: he came from 12.00% on July 23 and touched 7.10% on August 1, and it is not a series low, which is 5.30%, from April 26.

Caiado touched the series floor within the day itself: the 11:30 UTC collection recorded 0.90%, the lowest value since April 14, and the locked capture at 19:42 shows 1.15% (USD 5.27M). The panel publishes the locked one and records the intraday floor.

The chasing pack split: Camilo Santana and Jair rose to 0.65%, Zema fell to 0.25% and Tarcísio remains at 0.05%, with USD 13.70M, the largest volume in the book. The impeachment of an STF justice held flat at 3.10% (USD 83K) for a fourth session. On inflation, the ten bands add up to 94.15%, below the 95% floor AFOS requires before reading a distribution as legible probability.

2. What the pollsters recorded

There was no fresh national poll, and the absence was confirmed two ways: the TSE sweep read 538 filings and inserted none, and no outlet published new national numbers. The most recent remains Vox Brasil of July 31 (n=2,100, BR-01084/2026), with Lula 40.5% x Flávio 31.2% and 47.5% x 41.1% in the runoff. The day's polls are state-level and do not enter here: Datafolha in Pernambuco gives Lula 57% against 22% for Flávio in that state, and Genial/Quaest shows Lula ahead in four states and Flávio in one.

📅 Polling calendar — next 7 days

Publication scheduled between Aug 3 and Aug 6; inclusion does not mean publication is confirmed. Filter: national ≥ 1,000 and state-level ≥ 1,500, which leaves out 9 state-level polls between 1,000 and 1,499. None in the window reaches 3,000.

Source: public TSE filings via the AFOS API. Status "filed ≠ published": citing numbers requires two primary sources.

3. What the press covered

The fact of the day is the PT national convention, in São Paulo, which formally launched Lula in his eighth run, with Alckmin as running mate and seven parties in the coalition, the largest left and centre-left alliance since 1989. In Folha de S.Paulo, he says he does not want to be the Bolsa Família president and promises to fight Congress over budget earmarks.

Flávio Bolsonaro spent Sunday at the PL state convention in Paraíba, which launched Efraim Filho for governor and Marcelo Queiroga for the Senate. Poder360 records the trip as a strategy to widen his presence in the Northeast, the rival's historic stronghold. He still has no running mate three days from the deadline. Valor Econômico sums up the cycle: the two reached the final stretch without broadening alliances, with the Centrão neutral.

On August 1, and not today, Lula and Flávio asked for votes ahead of the legal window, in Bahia and in Santa Catarina; the campaign only opens on August 16. On that same day, Missão launched Renan Santos, after formally confirming him at a convention brought forward to July 20.

On the judicial axis, Folha de S.Paulo records that the two inquiries into Lulinha, of July 30 and 31, sharpened the tension between Mendonça and the Federal Police. An inquiry is not a conviction. In the Master case, O Globo reports that the Federal Police points to Vorcaro's interest in Senate amendments, and the PT admitted that the deal to keep the case out of the Bahia race collapsed.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The gap went to +40.95pp because Flávio gave ground, and stays below the maximum of +41.80pp, from August 1.
2. Renan Santos broke nine rounds of decline with no polling and no event on the date.
3. Polling is stalled, but with a time set: four national polls publish by August 5.

---

Sources consulted

stories with a direct link to the article (anchor outlets):

• Folha de S.Paulo — Inquéritos sobre Lulinha acirram tensão entre Mendonça e PF
• O Globo — PF aponta interesse de Vorcaro em emendas apresentadas no Senado em projeto que regulamentava mercado de carbono
• Poder360 — PT formaliza candidatura de Lula neste domingo em São Paulo
• Poder360 — Ao vivo: PL realiza convenção estadual na Paraíba
• Poder360 — Flávio repete Lula e também pede voto antes do prazo permitido
• CNN Brasil — Missão oficializa Renan Santos como candidato a presidente em convenção

secondary stories (Google News redirect URL — the click resolves to the article):

• G1 — PT oficializa Lula como candidato à Presidência em busca do 4º mandato
• Folha de S.Paulo — Lula se lança à reeleição, diz que não quer ser presidente do Bolsa Família e promete disputa por emendas
• G1 — Lula e Flávio Bolsonaro pedem votos durante convenções partidárias; saiba o que diz a lei
• G1 — Com presença de Flávio Bolsonaro, PL lança Efraim Filho como candidato ao governo da Paraíba
• Valor Econômico — Análise: Lula e Flávio chegam à reta final das convenções sem ampliar alianças
• Valor Econômico — Renan Santos é lançado pelo Missão e ataca Lula, Flávio e outros candidatos
• Blog do BG — PT admite que acordo para deixar caso Master de fora da eleição na Bahia ruiu
• Folha PE — Pesquisa Datafolha: em Pernambuco, Lula tem 57%; Flávio Bolsonaro aparece com 22%
• Exame — Lula lidera em 4 estados e Flávio Bolsonaro vence em 1: os números da pesquisa Genial/Quaest

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Aug 2 at 17:14 BRT), TSE filings (official electoral polls).