AFOS Daily · Daily Synthesis
August 3, 2026
Prediction Markets × Polls × News
Synthesis generated from auditable data. Every claim cites its source.
BTG/Nexus cut Lula's first-round lead from 9pp to 4pp and the prediction market closed the gap alongside it, from +40.95pp to +40.05pp. In both cases through the same mechanism: Lula standing still, Flávio rising. The presidential market holds USD 118.32M, and the third-way field gained no price even on the day of its own conventions.
1. Prediction market
The presidential contract closed with Lula at 65.50% (USD 7.92M), flat for a second session, and Flávio Bolsonaro at 25.45% (USD 7.86M), a 0.90pp rise that was the strongest move among the top two. The gap fell to +40.05pp, entirely on the challenger's side. The total accumulated volume in the presidential market adds up to USD 118.32M.
The series blocks any reading of a comeback: Flávio's peak is 45.20%, from May 7, and his floor is 22.00%, from July 3, so 25.45% is recovery inside a lowered range. Lula's peak is 66.50% and the gap's is +41.80pp, both from August 1.
Renan Santos fell 0.50pp, to 7.45% (USD 8.86M), undoing the August 2 rise, and still carries more volume than Lula, whose price is almost nine times his, which measures traded history and not current conviction. On the day of their own conventions, Caiado stood at 1.15% (USD 5.30M) and Zema at 0.25% (USD 4.66M), with no gain.
In the sub-markets, Flávio leads second place with 80.50% (USD 0.22M) and Renan third with 60.50% (USD 0.17M), against Caiado's 25.00%. The STF impeachment contract holds at 3.10% (USD 83 thousand), the Senate has the PL at 75.00% (USD 259 thousand) and inflation concentrates 36.60% in the 5.00% to 5.49% band.
2. What the institutes recorded
BTG/Nexus released the 8th round in its series (Poder360): Lula 41% x Flávio 37% in the first round, with Caiado at 5%, Renan at 4% and Zema at 3%. In the runoff, 46% x 45%, a 1pp difference inside the 2pp margin and therefore a statistical tie. Fieldwork July 31 to August 2, n=2,002, telephone, filing BR-02874/2026.
What changes the week is the comparison with the institute's own previous round: on July 27 it was 42% x 33%. The first-round gap fell 5pp in a single round, and it fell because Lula gave up 1pp and Flávio gained 4pp (UOL). The 4pp is the tightest reading among the four national polls released since July 29: AtlasIntel gave 9.1pp, PoderData 6pp and Vox Brasil 9.3pp.
The round's rejection figures do not enter this panel: three outlets report 49% for each of the two and Money Times reports 50% and 51%. Without a primary source, the number stays out.
📅 Polling calendar — next 7 days
Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between Aug 4 and Aug 10. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication is confirmed. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each filing links to the TSE public search.
| Date | Institute | Sample | Scope | TSE filing | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4 | Real Time Big Data | 1,600 | state | BR-09650/2026 | 0.8 |
| Aug 4 | Nexus | 1,200 | national | BR-05573/2026 | 0.6 |
| Aug 4 | Nova Ibrape | 1,000 | state | BR-08730/2026 | 0.6 |
| Aug 5 | Quaest 🔥 | 2,004 | national | BR-06591/2026 | 0.9 |
| Aug 5 | Ideia/Canal Meio | 1,500 | national | BR-04579/2026 | 0.6 |
| Aug 5 | Real Time Big Data | 1,600 | state | BR-07850/2026 | 0.8 |
| Aug 6 | A J Tech | 1,602 | state | BR-01894/2026 | 0.6 |
Source: public TSE filing via the AFOS API. 🔥 marks samples ≥ 3,000. Status "registered ≠ published".
3. What the press covered
It was convention day for the third way. Caiado and Zema were formally nominated as candidates, and G1 published both speeches in full (Caiado · Zema). Caiado promised to pardon Bolsonaro and those convicted over January 8 and again called Flávio an "agro-flavoured" candidate (Valor). He went after the agribusiness electorate on the same day Flávio rose in both measurements, and neither the polling nor the price recorded a gain for him.
On the institutional axis, the Federal Police asked the STF to open a third inquiry into Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, known as Lulinha, on suspicion of influence peddling (Folha). The request adds to two investigations already authorised by Justice André Mendonça. His defence said it will take the matter to the Ministry of Justice.
Fachin said the court must live with contestation from public opinion (O Globo). In the Master case, the Federal Police postponed the deposition of Augusto Lima, Vorcaro's former partner (G1), and Moraes's family lost a suit against a senator who cited his link to the bank (VEJA).
4. Divergences of the day
Market × poll: both measurements moved the same way, which is rare, and through the same mechanism: leader still, challenger rising. It is worth saying what this is not. It is not convergence in level: the market pays a 65.50% chance of victory and the polling measures 41% of first-round intention, and those quantities do not subtract. What coincided was direction and cause.
Poll × poll: the 4pp from Nexus against 6pp from PoderData, 9.1pp from AtlasIntel and 9.3pp from Vox Brasil. The distance between the highest and the lowest reading reaches 5.3pp, larger than any price move in the period. One house measuring differently from the other three is not a shift in range.
Narrative × price: Caiado had the highest-exposure day on his calendar, with a convention, an amnesty pledge and a fight for the agribusiness vote, and the price did not move from 1.15%. Zema, nominated the same day, stayed at 0.25%.
In summary
- The gap closed 0.90pp in the market and 5pp in the same institute's polling, and in both the move belongs to the challenger.
- The 5.3pp spread between pollsters remains larger than the price movement. Quaest and Ideia publish on August 5.
- The STF impeachment contract did not move from 3.10% on a day carrying three institutional developments, which separates friction from rupture risk.
Sources consulted
stories with a direct link to the article (anchor outlets):
- Folha de S.Paulo — PF pede ao STF abertura de 3º inquérito contra Lulinha sob suspeita de tráfico de influência
- O Globo — Fachin diz que STF deve conviver com contestações: 'Fortalece a democracia'
- G1 — PF adia depoimento de Augusto Lima, ex-sócio de Vorcaro, após pedido da defesa
- VEJA — Derrota na Justiça: família de Moraes perde ação para senador por citar elo com Banco Master
secondary stories (Google News redirect URL, the click resolves to the article):
- Poder360 — Lula e Flávio estão tecnicamente empatados no 2º turno, diz Nexus
- CNN Brasil — Nexus/BTG: No 1º turno, Lula tem 41% e Flávio, 37%
- UOL Notícias — BTG/Nexus: Flávio cresce e reduz vantagem de Lula no 1º turno para 4 pontos
- Gazeta do Povo — Os números da nova pesquisa Nexus/BTG Pactual para presidente
- G1 — Eleições 2026: íntegra do discurso de Ronaldo Caiado na convenção que o lançou candidato
- G1 — Eleições 2026: íntegra do discurso de Romeu Zema na convenção que o lançou candidato
- Valor Econômico — Caiado volta a chamar Flávio Bolsonaro de candidato 'sabor agro'
- G1 — Quaest divulga na quarta-feira (5) nova pesquisa presidencial após apoio de Milei a Flávio
Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Aug 3, 16:11 BRT, locked capture), TSE filing (official electoral polls).
Sources cited in this text: Polymarket, TSE (registro público), BTG/Nexus, Folha de S.Paulo, O Globo, G1, VEJA, Valor Econômico, Poder360, CNN Brasil, UOL Notícias, Gazeta do Povo
Method: this synthesis is generated automatically from auditable data on the AFOS Analytics platform, under code-versioned rules in git. All claims can be verified on the platform or in the linked sources. Understand the automated governance.
Integration: for live data and detailed candidate analyses, access the full dashboard. To understand the method in depth, read The Method.
Glossary: Brazilian political terms used in the syntheses (TSE, STF, BolsoMaster, lideranças envelhecidas, etc.), definitions in 3 languages. See the full glossary →
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