August 4, 2026

1. Prediction market

This edition publishes prices from Aug 3, 16:11 BRT, and marks that on every figure. There is no fresh market reading on Aug 4. Total accumulated volume in the presidential race adds up to USD 118.32M, and in that reading the market had Lula at 65.50% (USD 7.92M) against Flávio at 25.45% (USD 7.86M), a gap of +40.05pp.

Behind them, Renan Santos at 7.45% (USD 8.86M), the name with the most money traded in the field despite the low price, Caiado at 1.15% (USD 5.30M), Zema at 0.25% (USD 4.66M) and Haddad at 0.15% (USD 6.64M), who is still not a candidate and whose contract prices a replacement scenario.

Among the side markets, the contract on an STF justice being removed by impeachment before 2027 stood at 3.10% (USD 83 thousand), the thinnest one the panel publishes. In the Senate, the PL at 75.00% (USD 259 thousand). On 2026 annual inflation, the 5.00% to 5.49% band concentrated 36.60%, with the bands adding to 99.65% and clearing the coherence gate.

2. What the institutes recorded

Today's TSE sweep returned 537 filings and no new poll. The day's data point came from yesterday's round: BTG/Nexus published, in the Aug 4 coverage and from the same filing BR-02874/2026 (n=2,002, fieldwork Jul 31 to Aug 2), government approval at 47% against 48% disapproval.

The finding is not the level, it is the stillness. Inside the house itself, approval stands at 47% across the last three rounds: 47% x 47% on Jul 13, 47% x 49% on Jul 27 and 47% x 48% now. What oscillated was disapproval, 2pp up and 1pp down, inside the margin both times. Administration ratings tell the same story: 37% excellent or good against 43% poor or terrible, versus 36% and 43% on Jul 27. PoderData/Aya of Jul 30 still gives a considerably harsher picture, 43% x 49%, and the two houses keep pointing different ways.

📅 Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between Aug 5 and Aug 11. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication is confirmed. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each filing links to the TSE public search.

Source: public TSE filing via the AFOS API. No sample ≥ 3,000 in the window. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation requires checking two primary sources before any figure is cited.

3. What the press covered

The cleanest move of the day was Zema's. Folha de S.Paulo recorded that Senator Eduardo Girão, of the Novo party, was announced as his running mate. He is the first of the three third-way names to close a ticket, and he closes it inside his own party, without depending on an alliance.

On the other side, Flávio had the reverse. Folha recorded that Republicanos confirmed neutrality and refused to join the ticket, and then that Podemos also refused support and decided to stay neutral, after resisting the nomination of its own president, Renata Abreu. O Globo reported which figure led Ciro Nogueira to reject the coalition and that Michelle Bolsonaro called him to press for Tereza Cristina. Daniella Marques, without Republicanos' approval, will stay on the campaign as an adviser. Flávio told G1 that the running-mate decision will come by August 15, which gives eleven days.

On the judicial axis, yesterday's request became today's decision: Dino authorised the third inquiry into Lulinha and ordered an investigation into leaks. The panel recorded yesterday that the Federal Police had requested it, and keeps the distinction between requesting and opening.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The stillness is the data. Three rounds from the same house at 47% approval describe a divided and stable electorate, not a trend.
2. The third way gained party definition. Zema is the first to close a ticket, and he does it without depending on a coalition.
3. Flávio's isolation is a recorded fact, not a reading. Two parties refused on the same day, and the deadline he himself declared is August 15.

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Sources consulted

stories with a direct link to the article (anchor outlets):

• Folha de S.Paulo — Senador Eduardo Girão, do partido Novo, é anunciado como vice de Zema
• Folha de S.Paulo — Republicanos confirma neutralidade na eleição e amplia isolamento de Flávio
• Folha de S.Paulo — Podemos recusa apoio a Flávio Bolsonaro e também decide ficar neutro na eleição
• O Globo — Dino autoriza terceiro inquérito para apurar suspeitas sobre atuação de Lulinha e manda investigar vazamentos
• O Globo — O número que levou Ciro Nogueira a rejeitar coligação com Flávio Bolsonaro
• O Globo — Michelle Bolsonaro liga para Ciro Nogueira e intercede por Tereza Cristina na vice de Flávio
• O Globo — Sem aval do Republicanos para ser vice, Daniella Marques seguirá na campanha como conselheira
• G1 — Flávio Bolsonaro diz que definição sobre vice sairá até o dia 15 de agosto

secondary stories (Google News redirect URL — the click resolves to the article):

• Poder360 — Governo Lula é desaprovado por 48% e aprovado por 47%, diz Nexus
• Revista Oeste — BTG/Nexus: 48% desaprovam Lula contra 47% que o aprovam
• Terra — BTG/Nexus: para 43%, governo Lula é ruim ou péssimo; 37% consideram ótimo ou bom
• BPMoney — Eduardo Girão é escolhido vice de Zema na disputa pela Presidência
• Money Times — Flávio Bolsonaro diz que 'gostaria muito' de ter Daniella Marques como vice
• melhorinvestimento.net — Quaest mede corrida presidencial após Milei e caso Lulinha

Technical sources: Polymarket (quotes via the AFOS proxy, Aug 3 16:11 BRT reading; no fresh reading on Aug 4), TSE filings (official electoral polls).