August 5, 2026

1. Prediction market

This edition publishes a price from Aug 3, 16:11 BRT, marked on every number. There is no fresh reading on Aug 4 and Aug 5. In that reading the market had Lula at 65.50% (USD 7.92M) against Flávio at 25.45% (USD 7.86M), a gap of +40.05pp. Total accumulated volume in the presidential race stands at USD 119.95M, measured today at 18:41 BRT: the counter is cumulative and not a price, so it tracks the day even when the price does not. Over the 88-day series, Lula's high remains 66.50% and the maximum gap +41.80pp, both from Aug 1.

Behind them, Renan Santos at 7.45% (USD 8.86M), with more money traded than Lula, and Caiado at 1.15% (USD 5.30M). Zema, Haddad and the rest combined do not reach 1.60%.

Among the side markets, the impeachment of an STF justice at 3.10% (USD 83 thousand), the thinnest on the panel; the PL at 75.00% (USD 259 thousand) in the Senate; and the 5.00% to 5.49% band at 36.60% in 2026 inflation, summing to 99.65% and passing the coherence gate.

2. What the institutes recorded

Two national polls on the same day, same fieldwork window, Jul 31 to Aug 3. Genial/Quaest (n=2,004, 2pp margin, BR-06591/2026) gives a first round of 39% x 30%, a 9pp gap, and a runoff of 44% x 39%. Meio/Ideia (n=1,500, 2.5pp margin, BR-04579/2026) gives 43% x 35%, an 8pp gap, and a runoff of 48.5% x 43%. Lula wins the eight runoffs of the two combined.

The comparison that counts is each house against itself, and it separates two mechanisms. At Quaest, the gap fell from 12pp to 9pp in the first round and from 8pp to 5pp in the runoff, with Lula giving up 1pp and Flávio gaining 2pp in each. At Meio/Ideia, the gap barely moved, from 8.4pp to 8pp, and both rose, Lula from 40.4% to 43% and Flávio from 32% to 35%. On its unprompted vote, Lula has 34.4% and Flávio 23%.

Approval repeated the exact number from three weeks earlier. At Quaest, 48% approve against 47% who disapprove, the same 48% x 47% as its own Jul 15 round, and administration ratings repeat 36% positive, 26% average and 36% negative. BTG/Nexus on Aug 3 gives the mirror image, 47% x 48%, and has been at 47% for three rounds. Rejection is 54% for Flávio and 52% for Lula.

📅 Polling calendar — next 7 days

Registered with the TSE and scheduled for publication between Aug 6 and Aug 12. Inclusion does not mean confirmed publication. Filter: sample ≥ 1,000, with no scope cut. Filing numbers in the TSE lookup.

Source: public TSE filings via the AFOS API. None reaches the 3,000 that the 🔥 flags and none is national. Status "registered ≠ published".

3. What the press covered

The convention deadline expired on Wednesday, and Flávio closed his ticket on the last day. The running mate is Alfredo Gaspar, a PL congressman from Alagoas, former attorney general and former security secretary of the state, rapporteur of the INSS joint congressional inquiry, whose profile the BBC sketched. VEJA reads the choice as a bet on fighting corruption rather than on the economy, and Valor describes it as damage minimisation.

It is a single-party ticket, and the cost shows up on the same page. Gazeta do Povo counts seven parties already neutral in the presidential race, and O Globo calculates that, with a pure ticket, he will have more than a minute less television time than Lula.

On the electoral-judicial axis, a partial grant. André Mendonça, vice-president of the TSE, ordered the government to produce within 10 days its documentation on institutional advertising from 2023 through the first half of 2026. The PL, which filed the petition, alleges commitments of R$ 178 million against a ceiling of R$ 135.7 million. And he denied the part seeking to bar new commitments, because the half-year window closed on June 30.

And the third most expensive name on the book spoke about the court. In an interview with g1 and GloboNews, Renan Santos said he will not comply with single-justice STF rulings, with the formulation "an illegal ruling is not obeyed", and that he will deal with the Centrão. On August 4, Lula and Davi Alcolumbre, president of the Senate, met at Moraes's home for two hours, after three months without contact.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The question from Aug 4 is half answered: the 4pp level from Nexus is an outlier, the direction is not.
2. Approval is the steadiest figure in the picture, with Quaest repeating its Jul 15 number and Nexus at 47% for three rounds.
3. The board closed and the price did not follow. The next phase is candidate registration.

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Sources consulted

stories with a direct link to the article (anchor outlets):

• O Globo — Mendonça cobra dados do governo Lula sobre gastos com publicidade para verificar se valores obedeceram teto
• Valor Econômico — Análise: Ao escolher Gaspar para vice, Flávio opta por minimização de danos
• g1 — Renan Santos diz que, se eleito, não vai cumprir decisões monocráticas do STF, vai compor com o Centrão e chama parlamentares de 'parasitas'
• g1 — Lula e Alcolumbre se encontram na casa de Moraes após rompimento; senador fala em 'segredo'
• VEJA — Ao escolher Alfredo Gaspar, Flávio aposta em combate à corrupção, não em economia, para a vice

secondary stories (Google News redirect URL — the click resolves to the article):

• Folha de S.Paulo — Flávio Bolsonaro anuncia Alfredo Gaspar, relator da comissão do INSS, como vice
• BBC News Brasil — Vice de Flávio Bolsonaro: quem é Alfredo Gaspar, escolhido para a chapa nas eleições 2026
• G1 — Quaest: Lula tem 39% no 1º turno; Flávio Bolsonaro, 30%; Renan Santos, 4%; Caiado, 4%; e Zema, 2%
• JOTA — Genial/Quaest: Lula lidera com 39%, Flávio Bolsonaro chega a 30% e encurta distância
• Gazeta do Povo — Os números da nova pesquisa Meio/Ideia para presidente
• Congresso em Foco — Meio/Ideia: Lula abre 8 pontos sobre Flávio Bolsonaro no 1º turno
• Gazeta do Povo — Sete partidos já decidiram ficar neutros na eleição presidencial; veja quais são
• Pleno.News — Mendonça manda governo Lula informar gastos com publicidade
• O GLOBO — Isolado, Flávio terá mais de um minuto a menos de tempo de TV que Lula na campanha presidencial
• Valor Econômico — Análise: Queda de diferença entre Lula e Flávio era esperada e volta de Lulinha ao noticiário ainda não foi captada

Technical sources: Polymarket (quotes via the AFOS proxy, locked capture Aug 3 at 16:11 BRT, total volume measured Aug 5 at 18:41 BRT), TSE filings (official electoral polls).