August 6, 2026

1. Prediction market

This edition publishes the reading of Aug 6, 17:44 BRT, confirmed by two independent readings. The market has Lula at 64.50% (USD 8.09M) against Flávio at 26.85% (USD 8.05M), a gap of +37.65pp. Cumulative volume in the presidential book totals USD 120.41M, measured at 18:06 BRT.

The gap narrowed for the fifth day running. In the AFOS series it came from +41.80pp on Aug 1, the maximum of the 88-day series, passing through +40.90pp, +38.90pp, +38.60pp and +38.50pp to get here. Lula gave up 1.00pp since Aug 3 and Flávio rose 1.40pp over the same stretch. No event in the window explains the move, and no national poll has been released since Aug 5: this is a band exit by momentum, not a reaction to news.

Flávio's level is not an extreme. In the 88-day series, 34 days matched or beat it, with a peak of 43.30% on May 8 and a floor of 22.00% on Jul 3. Lula's peak remains 66.50%, from Aug 1.

Behind them, Renan Santos at 6.90% (USD 9.10M), still with more money traded than Lula, and Caiado at 1.85% (USD 5.56M). Zema sits at 0.45% (USD 4.82M).

Among the side markets, impeachment of an STF justice fell to 2.75% (USD 83 thousand), the thinnest contract on this panel, and the PL sits at 73.00% (USD 293 thousand) in the Senate book. ⚠️ Brazil's 2026 inflation leaves the screen today: its bands total 110.20%, against 99.65% on Aug 5, failing the coherence gate of 95% to 105%. Bands that add past 100 are not probabilities, so AFOS does not publish them as such.

2. What the pollsters registered

No new national poll in the TSE registry. The latest remain Genial/Quaest and Meio/Ideia, both from Aug 5 and fielded over the same window, Jul 31 to Aug 3.

On approval, the picture sharpened with a figure that entered the panel today: three houses measured in the same window and disagree on the sign of the net. Quaest gives 48% x 47%, a positive net of 1pp. Meio/Ideia gives 48.5% x 49%, a negative net. BTG/Nexus from Aug 3 gives 47% x 48%, also negative. All three sit within any margin of one another: what is measured is a tie, and which side shows up ahead depends on the house.

📅 Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE scheduled for publication between Aug 7 and Aug 13. Inclusion does not mean publication is confirmed. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol links to the TSE public registry.

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. 🔥 marks samples ≥ 3,000. Status is "registered ≠ published", and the table lists the six largest of twelve in the period.

3. What the press covered

The conventions closed and the field is set. CartaCapital recorded 13 tickets defined for the presidency, and Exame published the full list of names. Registration with the Electoral Court is the next stage and runs to Aug 15.

The structural figure of the day comes from Folha. The paper reported that, for the first time in ten elections, only one presidential candidate will have an alliance with other parties. g1 detailed the weight of those alliances for the top two, and JOTA read the running-mate pick as isolation for Flávio.

On the judicial axis, the distinction matters. BBC News Brasil covered the impacts of the Alfredo Gaspar pick, among them an accusation of rape of a vulnerable person. Folha reported that his defence asked the PGR to speed up a DNA test that would clear the suspicion. And Gilmar Mendes authorised the opening of a preliminary investigation procedure, which is not an inquiry and is not an indictment: Gaspar is neither a defendant nor formally under investigation in the case.

On the digital front, CNN Brasil published a Datrix measurement under which Flávio lost the lead of a mentions ranking to Lula.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The gap closed at +37.65pp, a fifth day of narrowing, down from the +41.80pp peak of Aug 1, with no new poll in the interval.
2. The conventions closed with 13 tickets and a single candidate holding a party alliance, the lowest number in ten elections according to Folha.
3. Three houses disagree on the sign of the approval net in the same field window, and all three fit inside one another's margin.

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Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• Folha de S.Paulo — For the first time in ten elections, only one presidential candidate will have alliances with other parties
• Folha de S.Paulo — Defence of Flávio's running mate asks PGR to speed up DNA test that would clear rape suspicion
• g1 — Understanding the weight of party alliances for Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 elections
• O Tempo — Gilmar authorises preliminary investigation procedure over accusation against Alfredo Gaspar

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect — clique resolve à matéria):

• CartaCapital — Final list for the presidency has 13 tickets defined; meet the candidates and running mates
• Exame — Who are the 13 candidates for the presidency in the 2026 elections
• JOTA — Alfredo Gaspar pick for running mate points to Flávio Bolsonaro's isolation
• BBC News Brasil — Rape accusation, attacks on 'Lulinha' and Arthur Lira: the impacts of picking Alfredo Gaspar as Flávio Bolsonaro's running mate
• CNN Brasil — Datrix: Master makes Flávio lose digital ranking lead to Lula

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Aug 6 17:44 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).