August 7, 2026

1. Prediction market

This edition publishes the reading of Aug 7, 16:44 BRT, confirmed by two independent readings. The market has Lula at 64.50% (USD 8.11M) against Flávio at 26.95% (USD 8.08M), a gap of +37.55pp. Total accumulated volume in the presidential market is USD 120.64M.

The gap narrowed for the sixth day running, and the cause sits at one end only. In the AFOS series, the sequence since the high of +41.80pp on Aug 1 ran through +40.90pp, +38.90pp, +38.60pp, +38.50pp and +37.90pp. Over that stretch Flávio went from 24.70% to 26.95%, while Lula has been flat at 64.50% since Aug 4. In the first half of the move it was Lula who shifted, from 66.50% to 64.50%. With no event in the window, this is momentum, not a reaction to news.

The bigger move of the day was not in the winner contract. In the first round runner-up book, Flávio fell 4.50pp, from 87.50% to 83.00% (USD 237 thousand), on the same day his winner price rose. There is no arithmetic contradiction, because gaining a chance of winning takes away a chance of finishing second, but it is the biggest move on the panel since Aug 6.

In third place there was a mirror swap: Renan Santos rose 2.50pp, to 58.50% (USD 176 thousand), and Caiado fell 2.00pp, to 33.50% (USD 42 thousand). On Aug 6 the move had been the reverse.

In the presidential book, Renan Santos sits at 7.25% (USD 9.19M), still with more money traded than Lula, Caiado at 1.55% (USD 5.58M) and Zema at 0.45% (USD 4.83M). Among the side markets, the impeachment of an STF justice rose to 3.10% (USD 83 thousand), and the PL is at 73.00% (USD 259 thousand) in the Senate.

2. What the polling institutes recorded

No new national poll in the TSE registry. The latest remain Genial/Quaest and Meio/Ideia, both from Aug 5.

What did arrive were Quaest crosstabs. Folha shows Lula ahead among the elderly, a group that makes up almost 14% of eligible voters. Estadão records Lula ahead among Catholics and those with no religion, and Flávio winning among evangelicals, and Revista Fórum points to an advantage of more than 16 points among women. These are breakdowns of the Aug 5 round, not a fresh measurement.

📅 Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between Aug 8 and Aug 14. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication is confirmed. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol links to the TSE public search.

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. 🔥 marks samples ≥ 3,000. Status is "registered ≠ published", and the table lists the six largest of eighteen in the period.

3. What the press covered

The judicial axis caught both front runners on the same day, and through acts, not statements. Against Flávio, Dino ordered the Federal Police to investigate signs of crime in Pix earmarks flagged by a TCU audit, and a transfer made by his running mate is on the list. The distinction matters: Alfredo Gaspar has no investigation request open against him, the earmark appears in the audit. Against Lula, the Federal Police will summon a former chief of staff of his to testify about payments from a lobbyist, and Estadão published the reconstruction of the day the police grew suspicious of Fábio Luís's business dealings.

Flávio's running mate stayed at the centre. O Globo reported the inside story of the last-minute pick, and Pleno.News recorded that the PL left an opening for Gaspar to return to the Senate race. On Aug 6, Flávio said he tried to have a woman as running mate and blamed the Centrão bosses.

In the institutional background, the friction is between the police and the rapporteur of the Master case. The justice minister will try to broker a deal between Mendonça and the force's director general, after tension widened in the Master and INSS investigations. On Aug 6, the police indicted six in the second inquiry into illegal deductions from pensions, and STF justices signalled support for Gilmar Mendes's binding precedent to block pautas-bomba.

On the board, the phase is registration, running to Aug 15. Zema filed his on Aug 6, declaring R$ 178.7 million in assets, a figure also published by Money Times. On Friday, MEON reported that Nikolas Ferreira is trying to convince him to swap the presidential run for the Senate.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The gap closed at +37.55pp, the sixth day of tightening, all of it from Flávio rising, not Lula falling.
2. The runner-up contract fell 4.50pp for Flávio on the same day his winner price rose, the biggest move on the panel since Aug 6.
3. Five national polls are registered with the TSE for Aug 10 and Aug 11, one of them with n=5,000, and four were still in the field on Friday.

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Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• g1 — Dino aciona PF para investigar 'emendas PIX' após auditoria do TCU apontar prejuízo e fraudes
• O Globo — Dino manda PF investigar indícios de crimes em emendas Pix apontados pelo TCU; repasse feito por vice de Flávio está na lista
• O Globo — PF vai convocar ex-chefe de gabinete de Lula para depor sobre repasses de lobista
• O Globo — Sem ligação de Flávio, voo de madrugada e candidatura de fachada: os bastidores da escolha de última hora de Gaspar como vice
• O Globo — Master e INSS: Ministro da Justiça vai tentar acordo entre Mendonça e diretor-geral da PF
• Folha de S.Paulo — PF indicia seis em segundo inquérito sobre descontos ilegais em aposentadorias no INSS
• Folha de S.Paulo — Ministros do STF sinalizam apoio à proposta de súmula de Gilmar Mendes para barrar pautas-bomba
• Folha de S.Paulo — Lula lidera entre idosos, e Flávio quer usar vice que relatou CPI do INSS para crescer no grupo
• Folha de S.Paulo — Flávio Bolsonaro diz que tentou ter vice mulher e que Alfredo Gaspar foi escolhido em cima da hora
• VEJA — Zema registra candidatura ao Planalto e declara patrimônio de R$ 178,7 milhões

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect — clique resolve à matéria):

• Estadão — Fator Lulinha: o dia em que a PF suspeitou de negócios do filho do presidente
• Estadão — Lula supera Flávio Bolsonaro entre católicos e sem religião; candidato do PL vence entre evangélicos
• Revista Fórum — Lula tem mais de 16 pontos sobre Flávio Bolsonaro entre as mulheres, diz pesquisa
• Pleno.News — PL deixa brecha para que Alfredo Gaspar volte à disputa ao Senado
• bnc amazonas — Chefe da PF e Mendonça ampliam tensão em investigações do Master e do INSS
• Money Times — Romeu Zema registra candidatura à Presidência e declara R$ 178,7 milhões em patrimônio
• MEON — Nikolas Ferreira tenta convencer Zema a desistir da disputa presidencial e concorrer ao Senado

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Aug 7 16:44 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).