August 8, 2026

1. Prediction market

This edition publishes the reading of Aug 8, 14:32 BRT, confirmed by two readings. The market has Lula at 64.50% (USD 8.12M) against Flávio at 26.95% (USD 8.08M), a gap of +37.55pp. Total accumulated volume is USD 121.06M.

The six-day run of narrowing in the gap did not continue. In the AFOS series it came from +41.80pp on Aug 1 and fell every day through Aug 7. Today it held where it was, with Lula flat for the fifth day running. Neither gave back ground, and that is information too: the runner-up's new level held without a poll to confirm it.

The move of the day is in the placement books, and it contradicts yesterday's reading. In the first round runner-up book, Flávio fell for the second day running, from 87.50% on Aug 6 to 83.00% on Aug 7 and 81.50% (USD 237 thousand) today, adding up to 6.00pp in two days. Yesterday it coexisted with a rise in the winner contract and could be called a swap between books. Today the winner held still, so the fall is isolated.

In third place, Caiado fell 2.50pp, to 31.00% (USD 42 thousand), and Renan Santos did not rise alongside: he held at 58.50% (USD 176 thousand).

Behind them, Renan Santos at 7.65% (USD 9.23M), still with more money traded than Lula, Caiado at 1.35% (USD 5.59M) and Zema at 0.55% (USD 5.01M). STF impeachment held at 3.10% (USD 83 thousand) and the PL is at 73.50% (USD 259 thousand) in the Senate.

2. What the polling institutes recorded

No new national poll in the TSE registry. The latest remain Genial/Quaest and Meio/Ideia, from Aug 5: that is four days with no polling.

The calendar grew: PoderData came in for Aug 13, with n=2,400 and fieldwork from Aug 9 to Aug 12, and with it there are six national polls in the queue.

📅 Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between Aug 9 and Aug 15. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication is confirmed. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol links to the TSE public search.

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. 🔥 marks samples ≥ 3,000. Status is "registered ≠ published", and the table lists the six NATIONAL polls out of twenty-four records. None has a result yet.

3. What the press covered

The registration phase moved. The PT filed Lula's candidacy with the TSE, with Alckmin as running mate, under the Brasil Pronto Pra Mais coalition, of seven parties. The filing was on the night of Aug 7 and the launch is on Aug 16. His ticket is the only one in the race with more than one party, in what G1 called the election with the most single-party tickets since redemocratisation.

And one figure reaches every ticket. CNN Brasil recorded that 2026 is the first election this century with no woman on a competitive presidential ticket, counting as competitive the ticket whose party holds seats in Congress. Since 2002 there has always been at least one, and in this cycle they appear only in parties without a bench. Rádio Itatiaia published the same survey. Flávio answered by talking about appointing women to the STF at an event with female allies.

On the judicial axis, the furthest-reaching decision hits both sides through the same act. Dino ordered the Federal Police to investigate Pix earmarks of Flávio's running mate, of Hugo Motta and of a former PT leader, from a TCU audit covering R$ 55.4 million. It is not a decision against one camp: six other deputies, two senators and four former lawmakers also appear. In Gaspar's case it is R$ 6.2 million to São José da Laje that the audit could not trace.

Three other justices acted on the same day. Mendonça asked for data on a PT meeting and on the Porta-Vozes de Lula project, Moraes denied Bolsonaro a visit from his children on Father's Day and Gilmar Mendes said he does not know Flávio's running mate. The PT petitioned the STF over the leak of audio of Lula's son.

In the Master case, the movement was about assets: the holding company of Daniel Vorcaro was liquidated in the Cayman Islands. On the friction between the police and the rapporteur, Folha recorded that the environment turned hostile and even so officers see no risk to the investigations.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The gap held at +37.55pp and the six-day run stopped, with neither end giving back ground.
2. In third place the transfer between Caiado and Renan Santos stopped, and the probability left the book.
3. Lula filed his candidacy with Alckmin, and his ticket is the only one with more than one party, in a cycle with no woman on a competitive ticket.

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Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• g1 — PT registra no TSE candidatura de Lula à reeleição para a Presidência, com Alckmin como vice
• Folha de S.Paulo — Dino manda PF investigar emendas Pix de vice de Flávio, Motta e ex-líder do PT após auditoria do TCU
• Folha de S.Paulo — Mendonça determina entrega de dados sobre encontro do PT e de projeto 'Porta-Vozes de Lula'
• Folha de S.Paulo — Moraes rejeita pedido de Bolsonaro para receber visita de filhos no Dia dos Pais
• Folha de S.Paulo — 'Não o conheço', diz Gilmar Mendes sobre vice de Flávio Bolsonaro
• Folha de S.Paulo — Embate entre PF e STF gera ambiente hostil, mas delegados não veem risco para investigações
• Estadão — 'Holding ostentação' de Daniel Vorcaro é liquidada nas Ilhas Cayman

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect — clique resolve à matéria):

• G1 — Eleição presidencial de 2026 é a com mais chapas puro-sangue desde a redemocratização
• CNN Brasil — Eleição de 2026 é a primeira do século sem mulheres em chapas competitivas
• Rádio Itatiaia — Eleição de 2026 é a primeira sem mulheres em chapas competitivas no século
• Folha de S.Paulo — Flávio Bolsonaro fala em indicar mulheres ao STF em evento com aliadas
• Mônica Bergamo — PT aciona STF e cobra apuração sobre vazamento de áudios de filho de Lula para Flávio Bolsonaro
• Mais Goiás — 13 temas, 84 páginas: veja o resumo do plano de governo apresentado por Lula para as eleições 2026
• Portal Piauí Hoje — Lula define slogan "O Brasil pronto pra mais" para campanha à reeleição em 2026

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Aug 8 14:32 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).