1. Prediction market

This edition publishes the reading of Aug 9, 15:03 BRT, confirmed by two readings. The market has Lula at 63.50% (USD 8.18M) against Flávio at 26.95% (USD 8.09M), a gap of +36.55pp. Total accumulated volume is USD 121.32M.

The gap narrowed again, and from one side only. Lula lost 1.00pp and broke below the five-day plateau that had held since Aug 4. Flávio stood still for a third day. On the previous days the narrowing came from both ends, with the runner-up gaining what the leader lost. Today only the leader moved. In the AFOS series, since Aug 1 the gap has fallen on seven of the eight days, with a single flat day, coming down from +41.80pp.

The strongest move is in the third place book, and it contradicts the Aug 8 reading. Renan Santos jumped 6.00pp, to 64.50% (USD 176 thousand), and Caiado fell 5.50pp, to 25.50% (USD 44 thousand), in an almost exact mirror. On Aug 8 Caiado fell 2.50pp and Renan did not rise alongside, and the panel recorded that the probability was leaving the book instead of migrating inside it. Today it migrated.

In second place, Flávio stopped at 81.50% (USD 242 thousand) after losing 6.00pp in two days, and Renan opened up over Lula, with 8.25% (USD 1.10M) against 6.75% (USD 160 thousand), a 1.50pp distance when on Aug 8 it was 0.10pp.

Behind them, Renan Santos at 7.80% (USD 9.27M), still with more money traded than Lula, Caiado at 1.25% (USD 5.60M) and Zema at 0.45% (USD 5.02M), the latter back below the 0.5% cut. STF impeachment rose to 3.60% (USD 83 thousand) and the PL is at 74.50% (USD 259 thousand) in the Senate.

2. What the polling institutes recorded

No new national poll in the TSE registry. The latest remain Genial/Quaest and Meio/Ideia, from Aug 5: that is four days without measurement.

Today's coverage of Quaest is a cut, not a fresh round: G1 published the numbers by political placement, region, sex, age bracket and education, and CNN Brasil highlighted Flávio widening his advantage among voters with secondary and higher education. The runoff score is still 44% x 39%, the same as Aug 5.

📅 Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between Aug 10 and Aug 15. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication is confirmed. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol links to the TSE public search.

Date	Institute	Sample	Scope	TSE protocol	Conf.
Aug 10	Palver 🔥	5,000	national	BR-06596/2026	3
Aug 10	Gerp	2,400	national	BR-08045/2026	3
Aug 10	Nexus	2,000	national	BR-08428/2026	3
Aug 11	MDA	2,002	national	BR-06935/2026	3
Aug 11	100 Cidades	2,000	national	BR-08109/2026	3
Aug 13	PoderData	2,400	national	BR-06868/2026	3

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. 🔥 marks samples ≥ 3,000. Status is "registered ≠ published", and the table lists the six NATIONAL polls. None has a result yet.

3. What the press covered

The registration paperwork became the subject of the day, and the data is from Aug 8. Folha recorded that the assets declared by Lula fell R$ 2.6 million against 2022. That is R$ 4.78 million, a fall of 35.7% in current values and of 46% in real terms, with two pension plans accounting for 69% of the total. Poder360 put the three side by side: Zema declared R$ 178.7 million and his running mate, Girão, R$ 34.1 million, and Renan Santos declared R$ 795 thousand, with his running mate reporting R$ 1.6 million.

And the structural picture gained a figure. Brasil 247 recorded that 2026 has 92.3% single-party tickets, the highest level since redemocratisation. It is a proportional record, not an absolute one: in 1989 there were 22 candidates, with 86.4% on single-party tickets. Folha explained the difference between a single-party ticket, a coalition and a federation.

On the map, the asymmetry shows again. Brasil de Fato counted 26 state platforms consolidated for Lula against 16 organised by Flávio, while Folha recorded PT and PL aligning tactical support in the states. Poder360 noted that Renan Santos's bet on the interior runs into the structure of Missão.

None of the five justices tracked took a fresh decision this Sunday. The judicial axis was analysis and profile: O Globo dealt with the design of the Pix earmark, Folha recorded Mendonça leading the granting of habeas corpus in the half-year and BPMoney measured 397.3 thousand mentions of the president's son's case in one week.

4. Divergences of the day

Book × book: in the third place contract, Renan Santos rose 6.00pp and Caiado fell 5.50pp, in an almost exact mirror. On Aug 8 Caiado fell alone and the probability left the book. The direction was the same on both days and the mechanism was not, and that is why the panel describes mechanism rather than trend.

Price × price: the gap narrowed 1.00pp without the runner-up gaining anything. When both ends move there is a transfer; when only the leader gives way, the probability may have gone to any other outcome in the book, including none.

Market × poll: the price moved on four of the last five days and the polling was not measured once in the period. The six national polls between Aug 10 and Aug 13 are the first chance to compare.

In summary

The gap went to +36.55pp and the narrowing came only from the leader's fall, which broke below the five-day plateau.
In third place the transfer came back, contradicting the Aug 8 mechanism.
Lula declared R$ 4.78 million to the TSE on Aug 8, and 2026 has 92.3% single-party tickets, a proportional record since redemocratisation.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect — clique resolve à matéria):

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Aug 9 15:03 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).

August 9, 2026