1. Prediction market

At the confirmed reading of Aug 10, 21:32 BRT, Lula stood still at 63.50% (USD 8.20M) and Flávio Bolsonaro rose 0.30pp, to 27.25% (USD 8.11M). In the presidential market, the total cumulative volume adds up to USD 121.85M.

The gap narrowed to +36.25pp, against +36.55pp on Aug 9, and the mechanism is the opposite: yesterday the distance shrank because the leader gave way 1.00pp with the runner-up flat; today, because the runner-up rose with the leader flat. Flávio was the only one in the chasing pack to rise. Since Aug 3 the gap has fallen on six of the seven sessions, from +38.90pp.

Renan Santos fell 0.15pp, to 7.65% (USD 9.32M), the largest volume among the names above 1%. Caiado fell 0.10pp, to 1.15% (USD 5.62M) and Zema stayed at 0.45% (USD 5.05M), below the 0.5% cut that separates price from noise in the book. In the Senate, the PL has 75.50% (USD 259 thousand).

⚠️ Three contracts go without a published number today: the STF impeachment one and the first-round second and third place ones. They are the thinnest in the panel, from USD 83 thousand to USD 244 thousand, and today's readings did not hold up against each other. AFOS only publishes a price that two independent readings confirm, eight minutes apart. For the STF, the last confirmed value is the one from Aug 9, 3.60%.

2. What the institutes recorded

BTG/Nexus, 9th round (n=2,001, telephone, field Aug 7 to Aug 9, 2pp margin, BR-08428/2026), gives Lula 40% x Flávio 35% in the first round, a difference outside the margin, with Caiado 5%, Renan 4% and Zema 3%. In the runoff, 47% x 44%, and the round points to Lula tying with Caiado. Approval stands at 46% against 49%, versus 47% x 48% in that house's own Aug 3 round, with rejection of 50% and 48%.

Palver debuts (n=5,000, over the internet, 3pp margin, BR-06596/2026) with Lula 44% x Flávio 40% and a tie at 46% x 46% in the runoff, the best scenario a national poll has given the runner-up in the window. Renan Santos comes in at 10%, alone in third. Approval goes to 45% against 55%, the most negative balance of the period.

📅 Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE scheduled for publication between Aug 11 and Aug 17. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication is confirmed, because institutes can delay or cancel a release. Filters applied: national scope and sample ≥ 1,000. Each registration number links to the public TSE search.

Date	Institute	Sample	Scope	TSE registration	Conf.
Aug 11	MDA	2,002	national	BR-06935/2026	3
Aug 11	100 Cidades	2,000	national	BR-08109/2026	3
Aug 13	PoderData	2,400	national	BR-06868/2026	3
Aug 14	Quaest	2,004	national	BR-06773/2026	3

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. 🔥 marks samples ≥ 3,000. The table lists the 4 NATIONAL polls of the window; 19 state-level registrations from the same period were left out on scope. The status is "registered ≠ published", and confirming an actual release requires two primary sources before citing a number.

3. What the press covered

The political fact of the day came from Congress: the Speaker of the lower house declared support for Lula\u2019s reelection. The distinction matters, because the national directorate of Republicanos declared neutrality and freed the state directorates, refusing a coalition with the runner-up, and it was in that space that Motta and the Paraíba directorate took their position.

Both campaigns launched slogans, with Lula and Alckmin presenting the government programme and his opponent settling on his own, which picks up a Lula line from 2002.

The Master case stayed in coverage, with no fresh judicial decision and no resolution at the Brasília debate: Poder360 reports that two ministers favoured a deal that enriched Vorcaro.

Method became the story: UOL and CartaCapital discuss whether online polling overstates the third-placed candidate's performance, on the very day the house that measured him high made its debut.

4. Divergences of the day

Market × poll, and the caveat is the institute's: Renan Santos comes in at 4% at Genial/Quaest in person on Aug 5, 4.7% at Meio/Ideia by telephone, 4% at BTG/Nexus by telephone today, and 10% at Palver over the internet. Palver itself assessed that the digital format may have boosted his performance, since he keeps an active base in that environment, and said it is testing approaches to reduce the effect. The price sits between the two methods, at 7.65%.

Price × price: the same candidate is at his ceiling in the polling and near his floor in the book in the same week. In the 88-day series, 84 of them had a value equal to or above the current 7.65%, with a maximum of 17.90% on Jun 9.

Poll × poll: adding the four national polls since Aug 5, Lula runs from 39% to 44% and the runner-up from 30% to 40%, a 10pp band, double the leader's. In the runoff the distance between them runs from 0pp to 5.5pp depending on the house. Choosing one poll is choosing the conclusion, and that is why this panel publishes the set.

In summary

The gap narrowed for the opposite reason to yesterday, and treating the two days as the same trend would erase the difference.
The spread between institutes is larger than any price movement of the day: ten points on the runner-up, against 0.30pp across the whole market.
An institute declared its own method effect, and the panel repeats its statement rather than judging the number.

Fontes consultadas

articles with a direct link to the story (anchor outlets):

secondary articles (Google News redirect URL — the click resolves to the story):

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Aug 10, 21:32 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).

August 10, 2026