1. Prediction market

Prices from the confirmed reading of August 11, 18:22 BRT. Lula closed at 63.50% (vol USD 8.21M cumulative), flat for the fourth session running. Flávio Bolsonaro closed at 27.25% (vol USD 8.12M), where he already stood on August 10, after marking 26.95% at 16:27. The gap ended at +36.25pp, the same as August 10. The total volume of the presidential book adds up to USD 122.17M.

Renan Santos was the only name to move, and the move came back. At 16:27 he marked 8.40%; at the close he stood at 7.75% (vol USD 9.44M), 0.10pp above August 10. In the 90-day series, 78 had a value equal to or above it. No cause is attributed to the swing: nothing was measured linking it to an event of the day.

The chasing pack gave up 0.10pp each: Caiado 1.05% (vol USD 5.63M), Zema 0.35% (vol USD 5.05M) and Haddad 0.05% (vol USD 7.01M). Tarcísio de Freitas remains at 0.05% with USD 13.90M, the largest volume in the book: conviction already priced in, not movement.

In the sub-markets, Flávio stands at 80.50% in the first-round runner-up contract (vol USD 245 thousand), against 82.00% on August 10, and Renan at 64.00% in the third-place one (vol USD 178 thousand). Impeachment at the STF marks 3.80% (vol USD 83 thousand), the thinnest on the panel. In the Senate, the PL stands at 76.50% (vol USD 259 thousand).

2. What the institutes recorded

Three national polls came out on August 11, all fielded in the same week, and they disagree more than on any other day in the window. CNT/MDA (n=2,002, in person, BR-06935/2026) gives 42.4% x 28.7% in the first round and 48% x 39% in the runoff. Futura Inteligência (n=2,000, telephone) gives 38.8% x 34.1% and 46.5% x 44%. Gerp (n=2,400, telephone, BR-08045/2026) gives a tie at 38% x 38% and 45% x 43% for Flávio. It is the first time in the window that a national poll puts Flávio ahead in the runoff.

In the runoff the distance between the most and the least favourable reading is eleven points; in the first round, 9.3 points on Flávio. Across the seven national polls since August 5, Lula runs from 38% to 44%, a 6pp band, and Flávio from 28.7% to 40%, an 11.3pp band. Approval disperses the same way: 47.3% against 49.9% at Futura and 53% disapproval at Gerp. ⚠️ Futura's TSE registration could not be closed in a primary source, and the panel declares the doubt.

📅 Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE scheduled for publication between August 12 and 18. Inclusion does not mean publication is confirmed. Filters applied: national scope and sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol is linked to the TSE public search.

Date	Institute	Sample	Scope	TSE protocol	Conf.
Aug 13	PoderData	2,400	national	BR-06868/2026	0.7
Aug 14	Quaest	2,004	national	BR-06773/2026	0.9

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. The table lists the 2 NATIONAL polls of the window; 21 state-level registrations from the same period were left out by scope. The status is "registered ≠ published", and confirming actual release requires two primary sources.

3. What the press covered

The Banco Master fact of August 11 is one of administrative deadlock, not of judicial decision. The Credit Guarantee Fund told the Supreme Court that it is not a party to the deal and that it has not received BRB's balance sheet, without which the rescue loan cannot move forward. Estadão recorded that the missing balance sheet is holding up the loan to the Federal District, and BRB replied that it will only release its 2025 statements after the capitalisation. The deadlock is circular.

On August 11, Folha reported that the liquidator of Master widened the net around Vorcaro's assets in the US. 📌 Two things in circulation are not from August 11: the Federal Police operation over the Maceió pension fund is from August 10, and the winding-up of Vorcaro's holding company in a tax haven already appeared on August 8.

Flávio Bolsonaro stated that he will attend the debates and that it is Lula who owes explanations, recorded a campaign broadcast with Michelle Bolsonaro saying that Moraes is his opponent's operator and floated ending re-election as a way to attract parties. His campaign slogan came out on August 10. The BBC published a report on why part of the financial market joined Renan Santos's campaign.

4. Divergences of the day

Market × poll: three institutes published readings eleven points apart in the runoff and the price did not move. Lula flat for the fourth session, Flávio back at his August 10 value, gap identical. The two instruments measured the same week under opposite uncertainty regimes, and this panel records the difference without saying which one is right.

Poll × poll: Flávio's spread in the window reached 11.3pp, almost double Lula's 6pp. The measurement uncertainty is concentrated in one of the two names, and choosing one of the three rounds of August 11 is choosing the conclusion.

Price × price: the same Renan Santos contract was read at 8.40% and at 7.75% within two hours, with both readings confirmed. Publishing only one of them would make a day with a 1.4pp swing look like a flat day.

In summary

The market closed where it started, with the gap at +36.25pp, on a day with three polls.
The polls do not agree with one another: eleven points in the runoff, 9.3 in the first round.
The Master case is stuck on a document, and the deadlock is circular.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect — clique resolve à matéria):

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (cotações ao vivo via proxy AFOS, fetched 11/Ago 18:22 BRT), registro TSE (pesquisas eleitorais oficiais).

August 11, 2026