August 12, 2026

1. Prediction market

Prices from the confirmed reading of August 12, 16:41 BRT. Lula closed at 63.50% (vol USD 8.22M cumulative), the fourth day running at the same value since August 9. Flávio Bolsonaro rose 0.40pp, to 27.65% (vol USD 8.12M), and the gap narrowed to 35.85pp. The total volume of the presidential book adds up to USD 122.49M.

The largest move of the day was not in the contract about who wins. In the one about who finishes second in the first round, Flávio rose 3.50pp, from 80.50% to 84.00% (vol USD 250 thousand). Winning and reaching the runoff are distinct questions, and the money moved the second one. No cause is attributed, because nothing was measured linking the move to an identifiable event.

Caiado pointed both ways on the same day. In the contract about winning he fell 0.10pp, to 0.95% (vol USD 5.66M), below 1% and 0.05pp from the floor of the series, 0.90% from July 7. In the third-place one he rose 2.00pp, to 31.50% (vol USD 47 thousand). Renan Santos gave way in both: 0.30pp in the presidential, to 7.45% (vol USD 9.48M), and 1.50pp in the third-place one, to 62.50% (vol USD 178 thousand).

Zema remains at 0.35% (vol USD 5.07M), below the 0.5% cut that separates price from noise, and Haddad rose 0.10pp, to 0.15% (vol USD 7.06M). 📌 And Jair Bolsonaro, who is ineligible, is priced at 1.20% (vol USD 5.52M), above Caiado, a figure the panel records without building a thesis on it.

In the other books, impeachment at the STF rose 0.10pp, to 3.90% (vol USD 83 thousand), the thinnest on the panel, and in the Senate the PL remains at 76.50% (vol USD 259 thousand).

2. What the institutes recorded

The day had no new national poll, and that is information. Still in force are the three from August 11, which disagree by eleven points in the runoff: CNT/MDA (n=2,002, in person, BR-06935/2026) with 48% x 39% for Lula; Futura Inteligência (n=2,000, telephone, BR-08109/2026) with 46.5% x 44%; and Gerp (n=2,400, telephone, BR-08045/2026) with 45% x 43% for Flávio.

Two outlets announced a "new Quaest poll" on August 12, but g1 itself reported that it comes out on Friday, the 14th. The panel treats it as calendar, not as a fresh figure. ✅ One item declared open on August 11 has been closed: Futura's TSE registration is BR-08109/2026, and the protocol is filed under 100% Cidades because it is the party commissioning the poll that Futura carries out.

📅 Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE scheduled for publication between August 13 and 19. Inclusion does not mean publication is confirmed. Filters applied: national scope and sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol is linked to the TSE public search.

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. The table lists the 3 NATIONAL polls of the window; 58 state-level registrations from the same period were left out by scope. The status is "registered ≠ published", and confirming release requires two primary sources.

3. What the press covered

The judicial fact of the day is a decision, and it has a defined reach. Justices Moraes, Dino, Gilmar Mendes and Zanin ordered seven courts of justice to return amounts paid as penduricalhos, citing exorbitant payments. The measure reaches Goiás, Maranhão, Paraná, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Norte, Rondônia and the Federal District, with a limit of 70% of the salary ceiling, R$ 46.3 thousand, and the court presidents have 72 hours to identify the beneficiaries.

In the Banco Master case, the movement was one of defence and not of decision. O Globo reported that Daniel Vorcaro expanded his defence team and ordered a sweep of files to try to land a third plea-bargain proposal. It is a proposal under way, not an agreement signed. On a separate front, Estadão published a recording in which a judge suggests selling Banco Santos to Master.

On the campaign, Estadão reported that Tereza Cristina met Flávio Bolsonaro's team to weigh taking part, and that he is courting leaders of neutral parties for a women's platform, since his running mate is not a woman. Valor Econômico judged that the government programme will be decisive for the overtaking attempt, and Gazeta do Povo recorded an offensive by Caiado on social media.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The market moved where the election is not decided, with 3.50pp in the runner-up contract against 0.40pp in the one about winning.
2. No new national poll, and the three from August 11 remain eleven points apart in the runoff.
3. Four Supreme Court justices ordered seven courts to return penduricalhos, with 72 hours to identify the beneficiaries.

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Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• Estadão — Moraes, Dino, Gilmar e Zanin determinam devolução de penduricalhos em 7 tribunais
• Estadão — Gravação mostra juiz sugerindo venda do Banco Santos ao Master
• g1 — Quaest divulga nova pesquisa da eleição presidencial na sexta (14)
• g1 — Penduricalhos: STF manda 7 tribunais devolverem valores
• O Globo — Vorcaro amplia equipe de defesa e determina devassa em arquivos
• Valor Econômico — Ministros do STF determinam devolução de penduricalhos pagos em sete tribunais

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect — clique resolve à matéria):

• CartaCapital — Moraes suspende penduricalhos pagos a magistrados de sete tribunais
• Brasil 247 — STF dá 72 horas para AGU comprovar cumprimento do teto e exige devolução de penduricalhos
• Congresso em Foco — Moraes, Dino, Gilmar e Zanin barram penduricalhos em sete tribunais
• O Tempo — Moraes manda sete tribunais de Justiça devolver valores pagos em penduricalhos
• Estadão — Tereza Cristina se reúne com equipe de Flávio para avaliar participação na campanha
• Estadão — Sem mulher na vice, Flávio atrai lideranças de partidos neutros para palanque feminino
• Valor Econômico — Programa de governo será crucial para Flávio tentar ultrapassagem
• Gazeta do Povo — Caiado mira Lula e Flávio em nova ofensiva nas redes sociais

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (cotações ao vivo via proxy AFOS, fetched 12/Ago 16:41 BRT), registro TSE (pesquisas eleitorais oficiais).