1. Prediction market

On the confirmed reading of August 21 at 9:02 PM BRT, approved by two readings, Lula gave up 1.00pp to 62.50% (USD 8.83M) in the presidential market, and Flávio Bolsonaro rose 0.40pp to 33.45% (USD 8.76M). The distance went to 29.05pp, a sixth straight day of convergence, and total volume in the presidential book is USD 130.88M.

Flávio Bolsonaro's value is the highest of the series: across the 175 points since May 23, the previous high was 33.20%. The 29.05pp distance is the narrowest since June 23.

In the placement contracts the two sides moved in opposite directions: the chance of Flávio Bolsonaro finishing in second place fell from 87.50% down to 84.50% (USD 350 thousand) on the same day his price of winning rose. In the third place one, Renan Santos holds 55.50% (USD 186 thousand) and Ronaldo Caiado rose to 38.00% (USD 56 thousand). The impeachment of a supreme court justice did not move, at 3.35% (USD 84 thousand), and in the Senate the PL has 78.50% (USD 259 thousand).

2. What the pollsters recorded

Two national polls came out on the same day and disagree with each other. Datafolha (n=2,058, field August 18 to 20, BR-04496/2026, 2pp margin), commissioned by Globo and Folha, measures Lula at 39% against 33% for Flávio Bolsonaro without Pablo Marçal in the field, and 39% against 32% with him, according to Folha de S.Paulo. In the runoff, Lula 47% and Flávio Bolsonaro 43%, according to G1.

Veritá (n=3,840, field August 16 to 20, BR-04006/2026, same margin), released hours earlier, measures a 0.2 point tie in the first round, Lula 39.3% x Flávio Bolsonaro 39.1%, and inverts the runoff: Flávio 47.3% against 42%, according to CNN Brasil. Datafolha carries reliability 5 on the panel's scale and Veritá carries 2, and the panel publishes both without choosing.

In the same round, on the government rating, great or good went from 32% to 33% and average fell from 28% to 25%, according to Folha de S.Paulo.

Polling calendar — next 7 days

In the public electoral court registry consulted through August 18, there is no national poll with a sample of 1,000 or more scheduled for August 22 to 28.

3. What the press covered

Lula and Donald Trump spoke by phone, their first contact after months of crisis, and the American president asked about the Brazilian elections, hearing that the process is trustworthy, according to G1. Lula also said the country does not need to classify criminal factions as terrorist organisations in order to fight organised crime, according to O Globo. Fernando Haddad said negotiations between the two countries would change if Trump and Flávio Bolsonaro were defeated, according to Estadão.

The electoral court set each candidacy's airtime, and the free broadcast slot on radio and television runs from August 28 to October 1, according to G1. Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro get the largest shares, and Pablo Marçal remains barred from appearing there by the August 20 injunction.

VEJA revealed messages between Fábio Luís Lula da Silva and a lobbyist, confirmed by O Globo, and Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign is preparing broadcast slot pieces with that material, according to O Globo.

4. Divergences of the day

Poll x poll: two national polls published on the same day, with fieldwork overlapping by three days, invert the runoff. Datafolha gives Lula 47% to 43% and Veritá gives Flávio Bolsonaro 47.3% to 42%. The panel records the difference and each house's rating, without choosing between them and without averaging.

Ballot x price, on the same name: Pablo Marçal appears at 5.2% in Veritá, 2% in Datafolha and 0.15% in price. The three measure different things and do not subtract, but they order the field in incompatible ways: third in one, sixth in the other, seventh in the market.

Price x price: on the same day the probability of Flávio Bolsonaro winning reached the highest value of the series, the probability of him finishing second fell from 87.50% down to 84.50%. They are different questions in the same book, and the panel does not add them.

Em síntese

The narrowing reached a sixth day and changed legs midway. The distance was 37.05pp on August 16 and closed at 29.05pp: of the 8.00pp, 4.00pp came off the leader and 4.00pp came from the runner-up. In the first days the one moving was Flávio Bolsonaro, and today Lula gave up 1.00pp after four flat days. Even so, 29.05pp is not a low: the series holds 6.30pp on June 2.
Two national polls published on the same day inverted the runoff. Datafolha gives Lula 47% to 43% and Veritá gives Flávio Bolsonaro 47.3% to 42%, with fieldwork overlapping by three days. The difference is not one of date or moment, it is one of institute, and the panel publishes both with each house's rating declared, 5 and 2, without averaging.
Voting intention held still and the government rating got worse in the same round. Poor or terrible went from 38% to 41% since the end of July, while Lula held 39% in the first round. They are different questions, and they moved in opposite directions.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect — clique resolve à matéria):

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Aug 21 9:02 PM BRT), public electoral court registry, consulted by registration number (official electoral polls).

August 21, 2026