August 22, 2026

1. Prediction market

Total accumulated volume in the presidential book stands at USD 131.16M, on the confirmed reading of August 22 at 5:10 PM BRT, with prices that two independent readings confirmed. In the presidential market, Lula is at 62.50% (USD 8.86M) and did not move; Flávio Bolsonaro is at 33.35% (USD 8.78M), down 0.10pp. The distance between the two is 29.15pp, against 30.45pp on the August 21 reading.

The move of the day belongs to Renan Santos: down 1.50pp, closing at 2.65% (USD 10.56M). It is the largest swing in the book. In the full record, which begins on April 14, his lowest point is today's; on April 28 the same contract paid 49.60%. In the sub-markets, Flávio Bolsonaro holds 84.50% in the first-round second-place contract (USD 0.35M). In the third-place contract (USD 0.19M), Renan Santos holds 49.50% and Ronaldo Caiado holds 46.00%: the same market that took price away from Renan in the main race still keeps him ahead here, by 3.50pp.

The supreme court impeachment contract holds at 3.35% (USD 84 thousand), the Senate gives the Partido Liberal 78.50% (USD 0.26M) and 2026 inflation has its leading band at 51.20% (USD 0.01M).

2. What the polling institutes registered

No new national poll was published on August 22. The Datafolha of August 21 (n=2,058, fieldwork August 18 to 20, registration BR-04496/2026) and the Veritá of the same day (n=3,840, fieldwork August 16 to 20, registration BR-04006/2026) remain the two most recent with a published number.

The two disagree on the runoff. Datafolha puts Lula at 47% against 43% for Flávio Bolsonaro; Veritá inverts the result. In the first round, Datafolha records Lula at 39%, Flávio at 33%, Caiado at 5% and Renan Santos at 4%. The same house detailed the vote migration of Zema, Caiado and Renan Santos in the runoff.

Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with the electoral court scheduled for publication between August 23 and August 29. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication, because institutes may delay or cancel a release. Filters applied: national scope and sample ≥ 1,000. Each registration linked to the public TSE lookup.

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples ≥ 3,000 in bold. The table lists the 5 NATIONAL polls in the window; 37 state-level registrations from the same period were left out by scope. The status is "registered ≠ published", and confirming an actual release requires two primary sources before citing a number.

3. What the press covered

Coverage on August 22 was follow-up on the previous day's Datafolha, with 164 distinct headlines in the collection. Folha reported that Lula's popularity slips and keeps the race balanced, and detailed that Flávio Bolsonaro draws only partial support from the right in the runoff scenario.

The same house published that Lula leads among women and the poorest, with Flávio Bolsonaro ahead in other segments.

Datafolha also measured the São Paulo state contest, with Tarcísio de Freitas at 45% against 27% for Haddad. State polls do not enter the national panel. Tarcísio himself said he would like to see Lula and Flávio in a debate.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

Renan Santos sits at the lowest point of the entire series and is the name that drew the most money. He fell 1.50pp and closed at 2.65%, against the 49.60% the same contract paid on April 28. He holds USD 10.56M, above Lula, with USD 8.86M, and Flávio Bolsonaro, with USD 8.78M. High volume with a falling price means the money that came in did not hold the value.

The top two stood still and the distance between them barely moved. Lula at 62.50% unchanged, Flávio Bolsonaro at 33.35% down 0.10pp, and the gap at 29.15pp against 30.45pp the day before. Neither is near his own peak: Lula's is 70.00%, from April 28, and Flávio's is 45.50%, from May 6.

No new national poll came out, and five are due in the next five days. Datafolha and Veritá, both from August 21, remain the most recent with a number and disagree on the runoff. Among those coming, JOTA carries a sample of 6,000, the largest on the calendar. Registration with the electoral court precedes release, so none of them has a number yet.

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Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• Folha de S.Paulo — Datafolha: Lula's popularity slips and keeps the race with Flávio balanced
• Folha de S.Paulo — Datafolha: Flávio draws only partial support from the right in the runoff
• Folha de S.Paulo — Datafolha: Lula leads among women and the poorest

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect — clique resolve à matéria):

• Folha de S.Paulo — Datafolha: Lula at 39% in the first round, Flávio Bolsonaro at 33%
• G1 — Datafolha, runoff: Lula, 47%; Flávio Bolsonaro, 43%
• CartaCapital — Datafolha details the vote migration of Zema, Caiado and Renan Santos in the runoff
• Folha de S.Paulo — Datafolha: Tarcísio leads the São Paulo governor race with 45% against 27% for Haddad
• Poder360 — Tarcísio says he would like to see Lula and Flávio in a debate

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Aug 22, 5:10 PM BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).