August 23, 2026

1. Prediction market

The presidential book holds USD 131.76M, in the confirmed reading of August 23, 2:58 PM BRT. In the presidential market, Lula is at 62.50% (vol USD 8.89M) and did not move, and Flávio Bolsonaro is at 33.25% (vol USD 8.79M), down 0.10pp. The distance between the two is 29.25pp, against 29.15pp on August 22.

All of the day's movement was in names paying less than four points. Renan Santos had the only rise confirmed by the double reading, 0.80pp, to 3.45% (vol USD 10.68M), with one of the largest volumes in the book, above Lula. Ronaldo Caiado rose to 0.55% (vol USD 6.46M), and Pablo Marçal and Romeu Zema also rose: all three came from the band below 0.5%, which the capture guard does not confirm.

In the sub-markets, Flávio Bolsonaro has 86.50% in second place (vol USD 0.36M). In third (vol USD 0.19M), Renan Santos has 56.00% against 41.00% for Ronaldo Caiado, a distance of 15.00pp.

In the smaller markets, impeachment at the Supreme Court stays unchanged at 3.35% (USD 84 thousand), the Senate gives 78.50% to the Liberal Party (USD 0.26M) and 2026 inflation pays 51.05% on the 5.00% to 5.49% band (USD 0.01M).

2. What the polling institutes registered

No new national poll came out on August 23. Datafolha (n=2,058) and Veritá (n=3,840), both from August 21, remain the most recent with a number and disagree on the runoff.

Polling calendar — next 7 days

Registered with the electoral court for release between August 24 and 30. Institutes may delay or cancel. Filters: national scope and sample from 1,000.

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists the 5 NATIONAL polls; another 58 were left out by scope, 57 state-level and 1 unidentified. Registered is not published, and citing a number requires two primary sources. JOTA has the largest sample and the longest field, from July 27 to August 24.

3. What the press covered

The debate is on August 23 at 8 PM, on Band with Estadão. Lula's campaign said he will not take part and Flávio Bolsonaro also decided not to go, according to Poder360; CNN Brasil detailed the rules.

Romeu Zema withdrew citing the absences of the top two. Confirmed: Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos and Augusto Cury, according to Gazeta do Povo. VEJA published a poll with high voter interest.

At the Supreme Court, Flávio Dino ruled on August 23 that parliamentary amendments directed by party presidents without a mandate are null, according to Folha de S.Paulo, and threatened to fine Podemos and Solidariedade, according to O Globo. It is a single-justice ruling, and it comes after the parties told the court that their presidents hold no formal authority over them.

On the INSS case, VEJA published the claim of an associate who says he heard mentions of commitments and amounts. It is a claim attributed to a source, with less backing than the August 20 statement by the prosecutor general's office, and points the other way. O Globo recorded that the Master and Lulinha cases widened the disagreement between André Mendonça and the prosecutor general.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

The most informative day for the presidential book was the one the top two did not move. Lula closed at 62.50% unchanged and Flávio Bolsonaro gave up 0.10pp, in a book of USD 131.76M, with the distance at 29.25pp. All movement was in names below four points, and the only confirmed rise, Renan Santos's 0.80pp, gives back the fall of August 22.

The first debate of the cycle is without the two names the market prices first and second. It is on August 23 at 8 PM, and the absence is not a probability: the campaigns told the broadcaster. Zema withdrew citing those absences, leaving Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos and Augusto Cury: the first two add up to 4.00% there, and Cury is not priced at all.

The polling ruler has been still for two days, and five national polls arrive in the next four. Datafolha and Veritá, from August 21, are the most recent with a number. Between August 24 and 27, Nexus, Gerp, JOTA, Indexa and PoderData are registered, totalling 14,800 interviews, none with a number.

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Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• Folha de S.Paulo — Dino voids parliamentary amendments requested or directed by party presidents
• O Globo — Dino threatens to fine Podemos and Solidariedade over lack of response on amendments directed by parties
• O Globo — Developments in the Master and Lulinha cases widen the disagreement between Mendonça and Gonet
• VEJA — Associate says he heard the INSS Careca mention commitments and amounts to Lulinha and a lobbyist

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect — clique resolve à matéria):

• Poder360 — Lula and Flávio decide not to attend the Band debate
• Poder360 — Zema pulls out of the Band debate and attributes the decision to Lula's absence
• CNN Brasil — Understand the rules and the backstage of the first presidential debate of 2026
• Gazeta do Povo — Band holds the first debate this Sunday. See time and confirmed candidates
• VEJA — Snubbed by Lula and Flávio, the debate draws high voter interest, poll shows

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Aug 23, 2:58 PM BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).