August 24, 2026

1. Prediction market

Prices come from the confirmed reading of August 24, 6:25 PM BRT, and the total accumulated volume adds up to USD 132.34M. Lula closed at 62.50% (USD 8.92M) with no change at all and Flávio Bolsonaro rose 1.80pp to 35.05% (USD 8.84M), the largest gain of the day. The distance fell from 29.25pp to 27.45pp, and the entire compression came from the second-place gain, not from a loss by the leader.

Both superlatives were checked against the series that begins on April 14, and neither is an extreme. The 35.05% is his highest value since May 13, against a peak of 45.50% on May 6, and the 27.45pp is the narrowest distance since June 21 on the daily close. On May 5 that distance was negative by 7.80pp, with him ahead: narrowing, in this pair, is nothing new.

In the third way, Renan Santos gave up 0.55pp to 2.90% (USD 10.94M), with accumulated volume larger than the leader's own, and Ronaldo Caiado rose 0.15pp to 0.70% (USD 6.55M). In the third-place contract both gave up 2.00pp, to 54.00% (USD 0.19M) against 39.00% (USD 0.06M); in the runner-up contract, Flávio Bolsonaro pays 85.50% (USD 0.37M), down 1.00pp. Romeu Zema is at 0.30% (USD 5.93M), below the 0.5% floor at which the double reading confirms variation. The institutional contracts did not move: Supreme Court at 3.35% (USD 84 thousand) and Senate with the Liberal Party at 77.50% (USD 0.26M). In inflation, the 5.00% to 5.49% band pays 50.25% (USD 15 thousand), with the ten bands summing to 104.95%, inside the 95% to 105% gate.

2. What the institutes recorded

BTG/Nexus is the first new national poll since August 21: released at 6:36 AM, registration BR-09028/2026, fieldwork August 21 to 23, 2,006 telephone interviews and a 2-point margin, it measures the runoff at 46% to 45% for Lula. In the first round there are two scenarios, and the difference between them is Pablo Marçal: without him, Lula 41% and Flávio Bolsonaro 37%; with him, 40% and 34%, with Marçal at 4%. Caiado has 5%, Renan Santos and Zema 3% each.

The runoff distance fell from 3 points to 1 against August 17, but that 1 point ties what BTG/Nexus measured on August 3, and today's 41% to 37% repeats that day. The runoff series reads 4 points on July 27, 1 on August 3, 3 on August 10 and 17, and 1 now. A second caveat: fieldwork closed on August 23 and the debate was at 8 PM that day, so the poll does not measure the debate. In the same wave, 48% approve and 49% disapprove of the government, 43% rate it poor or terrible against 35% excellent or good, and rejection stands at 49% for Lula against 48% for Flávio Bolsonaro: the leader is also the most rejected. The same wave tested Lula against Ronaldo Caiado and measured 46% to 42%, according to Metrópoles.

Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE scheduled for publication between Aug 25 and Aug 31. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication is confirmed, because institutes may delay or cancel a release. Filters applied: national scope and sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol links to the TSE public registry.

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples ≥ 3,000 in bold. The table lists the 5 NATIONAL polls in the window; 34 records from the same period were left out by scope, 33 of them state-level and 1 with no inferable scope. The status is "registered ≠ published", and confirming an actual release requires two primary sources before citing a number.

3. What the press covered

The first presidential debate was on August 23 at 8 PM, on Band, and the absences were the story: Caiado, Renan Santos and Cury attended; Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro did not, and Zema withdrew the same day, at 12:01 PM, after the absences of the top two were confirmed. According to Poder360, it was the presidential debate with the fewest participants in studio since 1989.

On the judicial front, Folha reports that the president of the São Paulo electoral court kept Pablo Marçal ineligible. The date of the ruling is August 21, not that of the coverage: judge José Antonio Encinas Manfré individually rejected the special appeals of his defence and also of the electoral prosecution service, applying the higher court's precedents 24 and 26, and kept him ineligible until 2032 along with the R$ 420 thousand fine, blocking for now the appeals from reaching the higher electoral court.

On the corporate front, Folha reports that BRB authorised action against former administrators in the Master case, at a meeting on August 24 with 7,495 shareholders in favour and one abstention, under article 159 of Law 6,404/1976. The bank's own note records that the approval does not predetermine anyone's liability: it enables the bank to sue, it does not decide the merits.

On the institutional agenda, Folha carries a statement by Flávio Dino on parliamentary amendments, following the August 23 ruling that reaffirmed the nullity of designations made by party leaders, under a daily fine of R$ 100 thousand. On public policy, InfoMoney and Poder360 report that the government is considering a differentiated adjustment for INSS beneficiaries, attributed to newspaper reporting.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The movement of the day came from one side only. Lula still at 62.50% and Flávio Bolsonaro up 1.80pp to 35.05%, his highest value since May 13, with the gap at 27.45pp, the narrowest since June 21.

2. The poll agrees with the price, and its own series imposes the caveat: the runoff at 46% to 45% and the first round at 41% to 37% tie with August 3.

3. Two institutional rulings entered with checked dates: the São Paulo electoral court rejected the appeals of Pablo Marçal and of the electoral prosecution service on August 21, and BRB, on August 24, authorised civil action without holding anyone liable.

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Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• Folha de S.Paulo — Presidente do TRE-SP rejeita recurso e mantém Pablo Marçal inelegível
• Folha de S.Paulo — BRB autoriza ações contra ex-administradores envolvidos no caso Master e Reag
• Folha de S.Paulo — Emendas parlamentares são o maior vetor de corrupção no Brasil hoje, diz Flávio Dino

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect — clique resolve à matéria):

• Poder360 — Lula tem 46% contra 45% de Flávio no 2º turno, diz BTG/Nexus

• Poder360 — Governo Lula é desaprovado por 49% e aprovado por 48%, diz BTG/Nexus

• CNN Brasil — Nexus/BTG: avaliação negativa do governo Lula é de 43%; positiva, 35%

• CartaCapital — Lula e Flávio Bolsonaro empatam no 2º turno, mostra nova pesquisa Nexus/BTG

• G1 — Com Caiado, Renan e Cury, primeiro debate presidencial é marcado por críticas às ausências

• CNN Brasil — 1º debate presidencial é marcado por ataques aos ausentes Lula e Flávio

• InfoMoney — Governo Lula avalia reajuste diferente para beneficiários do INSS

• Poder360 — Governo Lula discute reajuste diferente para beneficiários do INSS

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched Aug 24, 6:25 PM BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).