August 25, 2026

1. Prediction market

Prices come from the confirmed reading of August 25, 3:22 PM BRT, and the total accumulated volume of the presidential book is USD 132.88M. Lula closed at 62.50% (USD 8.97M) for a second straight day with no change and Flávio Bolsonaro gave back 0.40pp to 34.65% (USD 8.89M), returning part of the previous day's 1.80pp rise. The distance between the two widened again, from 27.45pp to 27.85pp, and it widened without the leader gaining anything.

The day's movement sits outside the main book. In first-round third place, Ronaldo Caiado rose 3.00pp to 42.00% (USD 0.06M), the largest gain on the panel in any book, and Renan Santos gave back 2.50pp to 51.50% (USD 0.20M), the largest loss. The gap between the two fell from 15.00pp to 9.50pp in a single day.

Flávio Bolsonaro had his two contracts moving in opposite directions. While giving ground in the presidential book, in first-round second place he rose 2.00pp to 87.50% (USD 0.37M). The market grew more convinced he reaches the runoff and slightly less convinced he wins. These are different questions and the panel does not subtract one from the other.

In the presidential book, the trailing pack stays on the floor: Renan Santos at 2.95% (USD 11.09M), with more volume than the leader himself, Caiado at 0.55% (USD 6.59M) after giving back 0.15pp, Romeu Zema at 0.25% (USD 5.98M) and Pablo Marçal at 0.15% (USD 2.66M). The last three sit below the 0.5% floor at which the double reading can separate price from noise. The institutional contracts did not move: Supreme Court at 3.40% (USD 84 thousand) and Senate with the PL at 77.50% (USD 0.26M). In inflation, the 5.00% to 5.49% band pays 50.25% (USD 15 thousand), with the bands totalling 102.95%, inside the 95% to 105% gate.

2. What the institutes recorded

There was no new national poll this Tuesday. The batch released by Quaest covers Rio Grande do Norte, Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, Alagoas, Maranhão and Santa Catarina, and the AFOS panel only cross-references national scope. The country's most recent national poll is still the BTG/Nexus of August 24, registration BR-09028/2026, fieldwork August 21 to 23, 2,006 interviews.

What circulated today about that round was reading, not new measurement: CNN Brasil reports 43% negative ratings against 35% positive, and VEJA states that Lula overtakes Flávio Bolsonaro in rejection for the first time since April, at 49% against 48%. The claim of a first is the magazine's, and the panel attributes it rather than signing it.

Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between August 26 and September 1. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication is confirmed, since institutes can delay or cancel a release. Filters applied: national scope and sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol links to the public TSE query.

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples ≥ 3,000 in bold. The table lists the 4 NATIONAL polls in the window; 33 records from the same period were left out by scope, 32 of them state-level and 1 with no inferable scope. The status is "registered ≠ published", and confirming an actual release requires two primary sources before citing a number.

3. What the press covered

The day's investigative fact is Operation Presciência. The Federal Police served six search and seizure warrants at public bodies and addresses of those under investigation, examining the placement of R$ 1.2 million from the Campo Grande Municipal Pension Institute into Banco Master financial notes. Folha de S.Paulo, Estadão and Valor carry the same figure. The inquiry covers suspected reckless management and corruption, with no ruling on the merits.

On the calendar, the top two candidates accepted the format they had refused two days earlier. Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro confirmed they will take part in the Jornal Nacional interviews, Lula on August 27 and his rival on August 28, live from the network's Rio studios. Both skipped the Band debate on August 23. The series of six interviews opened on August 24 with Romeu Zema, 40 minutes, and had Ronaldo Caiado this Tuesday, the second of the six. Zema was questioned again on August 25, this time by O Globo, Valor and CBN.

On the institutional beat, the Dark Horse case reached the runner-up through coverage. Asked about the film's accounts after Justice Flávio Dino's decision, he replied that the one who has accounts to answer for is his rival, demanding that the money be traced. Poder360 describes the answer as a dodge. Estadão reports that the top two candidates have been avoiding uncontrolled settings so as not to be questioned about Daniel Vorcaro and about the president's son.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The largest move of the day was in a side contract, not the main one: Caiado rose 3.00pp and Renan Santos gave back 2.50pp in third place, and the price moved closer to the order the polls show.
2. There was no new national poll, and Quaest's state-level batch does not enter the cross-reference by scope. Four national polls are registered for the next seven days, the largest with 6,000 interviews.
3. Flávio Bolsonaro's two contracts moved in opposite directions on the same day, which is market reading and not contradiction: reaching the runoff and winning the election are distinct bets.

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Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• Folha de S.Paulo — PF faz busca e apreensão em Instituto de Previdência de Campo Grande por investimentos no Master
• Estadão — PF faz ofensiva contra suposta fraude em investimentos da Previdência de Campo Grande no Master
• Valor — Operação da PF apura aplicação de R$ 1,2 milhão da Previdência de Campo Grande no Banco Master
• Gazeta do Povo — PF mira previdência de Campo Grande por aplicação de R$ 1,2 milhão no Master
• O Globo — O GLOBO, Valor e CBN sabatinam Romeu Zema com transmissão ao vivo

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect — clique resolve à matéria):

• Valor Econômico — Lula e Flávio confirmam ida à sabatina da Rede Globo
• Poder360 — Flávio confirma presença em sabatina do "Jornal Nacional"
• BBC — Romeu Zema no Jornal Nacional: o que disse o candidato à presidência na sabatina da Globo
• G1 — 'Vocês vão parar no tempo? Não sou eu que tenho que prestar conta, é o Lula', diz Flávio Bolsonaro sobre contas do filme 'Dark Horse'
• Poder360 — Flávio se esquiva de "Dark Horse" e cobra "follow the money" de Lulinha
• Estadão — Flávio e Lula evitam ambientes não controlados para evitar questionamentos sobre Vorcaro e Lulinha
• CNN Brasil — Nexus/BTG: avaliação negativa do governo Lula é de 43%; positiva, 35%
• VEJA — Lula supera Flávio em rejeição pela primeira vez desde abril, mostra nova pesquisa BTG/Nexus
• G1 — Quaest em SC: Flávio Bolsonaro, 45%; Lula, 20%; Renan Santos, 4%

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched August 25, 3:22 PM BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).