August 26, 2026

1. Prediction market

The prices on this page come from the confirmed reading of August 26, 3:19 PM BRT (6:19 PM UTC), and the total accumulated volume in the presidential book is USD 133.35M. Lula closed at 62.50% (USD 9.03M) with no change, a third straight day flat. Flávio Bolsonaro rose 0.90pp to 35.55% (USD 8.94M), the largest among the winner contracts.

The distance between the two fell from 27.85pp to 26.95pp. Checked in the database backup against the full record since April 14, it is the tightest since June 21, and it narrowed from one side only, because the leader gave up nothing. The 35.55% is also Flávio Bolsonaro's highest level since May 13, still 9.95pp below the series high, which is 45.50%, of May 6.

The largest move of the day, however, is in the third-place contract for the first round. Renan Santos gave up 6.00pp to 45.50% (USD 198,000), while Ronaldo Caiado gave up 3.00pp to 39.00% (USD 63,000). Both fell, and even so the distance between them shortened from 9.50pp to 6.50pp, because one fell twice as much as the other. In the winner contract they stood at 2.75% (USD 11.23M) and 0.45% (USD 6.59M).

A later capture, confirmed at 8:08 PM BRT (11:08 PM UTC), shows the third-place contract giving part of the move back that same night: Renan Santos returned to 47.50% and Augusto Cury rose to 10.90%. The panel table follows the 3:19 PM reading.

In the other contracts, almost nothing: Flávio Bolsonaro flat at 87.50% (USD 376,000) in second place, the impeachment of a Supreme Court justice at 3.40% (USD 84,000) for a third day, and the PL at 77.50% (USD 259,000) for the largest Senate caucus.

2. What the institutes recorded

Gerp released a national poll with 2,400 interviews, fieldwork August 21 to 25 and registration BR-03547/2026: Flávio Bolsonaro at 38% and Lula at 37% in the first round, inside the 2-point margin, and Flávio winning the runoff 47% to 42%. It is the first reading in the panel's table in which he comes out ahead in the first round.

Indexa/Broadcast released on the same day, with 2,000 telephone interviews, fieldwork August 20 to 23 and registration BR-06366/2026: Lula at 39% and Flávio at 34%, and Lula winning all four runoff scenarios tested, including 46% to 41% against Flávio. Against the house's July round, the gap fell from 10 to 5 points.

On the government rating the two agree on the sign: Indexa measures 46% approval against 50% disapproval and Gerp measures 43% against 51%. Adding BTG/Nexus of August 24, which had 48% against 49%, that is five points of spread between institutes on the same question in the same week.

Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between August 27 and September 2. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication is confirmed, because institutes may delay or cancel a release. Filters applied: national scope and a sample of at least 1,000. Each registration is linked to the TSE public search.

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists the 5 NATIONAL polls in the window; 38 registrations were left out by scope, 34 of them state-level and 4 with no inferable scope. The status is registered, not published, and confirming an actual release takes two primary sources before citing a figure.

3. What the press covered

Lula filed with the TSE against Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado over attacks in the Band debate and asked for posts to be taken down, according to Folha de S.Paulo and CartaCapital. It happened on the same day both gave ground in the third-place contract, and the panel records the coincidence of dates without assigning a cause.

The Master case returned through two acts. The Federal Police carried out a search at a pension institute in Campo Grande over money it placed with the bank, according to Folha, and Daniel Vorcaro's deposition to the police is set for August 27, according to O Globo. It had been scheduled for August 20 and was postponed at the defence's request. He has been in prison since March 4, 2026.

On the same day, the CEO of Indexa told Estadão that Flávio Bolsonaro has been winning voters back since the Master case. It is the measuring house itself tying the polling move to the case, on the same Wednesday his price rose.

The INSS case advanced through the government's family flank: the Federal Police say a lobbyist asked for action from Lulinha to close deals between the so-called Careca do INSS and the government, and Renan Santos wants to press the case in the Jornal Nacional interview. Caiado defended the impeachment of Supreme Court justices and asked for secrecy to be lifted on the Master, INSS and Carbono Oculto cases. The impeachment contract did not move. Quaest released presidential polling in 17 states and the Federal District, outside this panel's national scope.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. What disagreed today was two polls, not market and polling. Gerp and Indexa, registered with the TSE, came out on the same day with overlapping fieldwork and inverted the runoff.

2. The price gap is the tightest since June 21. It settled at 26.95pp, and it narrowed from one side only, because the leader gave up nothing.

3. The government rating has one sign and different sizes. The week's three houses measure a negative balance, with five points of spread between them.

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Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• Folha de S.Paulo — Lula vai ao TSE contra Renan Santos e Caiado por ataques em debate e pede retirada de posts em redes
• Folha de S.Paulo — Lobista pediu ação de Lulinha para fechar negócios de Careca do INSS com governo, diz PF
• Folha de S.Paulo — PF faz busca e apreensão em Instituto de Previdência de Campo Grande por investimentos no Master
• Folha de S.Paulo — Renan quer explorar caso Lulinha em sabatina no JN
• O Globo — Vorcaro vai depor à Polícia Federal em inquérito sobre fraudes do Master
• O Globo — Caiado defende possibilidade de impeachment de ministros do STF e pede quebra do sigilo dos casos Master, INSS e Carbono Oculto
• CartaCapital — Lula reage e vai ao TSE contra Renan Santos e Caiado por ataques em debate

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect — clique resolve à matéria):

• Gazeta do Povo — Gerp divulga pesquisa para presidente; confira os números
• JOTA — Indexa/Broadcast: Lula marca 46% contra 41% de Flávio Bolsonaro no 2º turno
• Estadão — CEO da Indexa diz que Flávio Bolsonaro está recuperando eleitores após caso Master
• CNN Brasil — Gerp: Governo Lula é desaprovado por 51%; aprovação é de 43%
• CNN Brasil — Indexa: 50% desaprovam governo Lula; 46% aprovam
• G1 — Quaest: veja os números da eleição para presidente em 17 estados e no DF

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Aug 26, 3:19 PM BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).