August 27, 2026

1. Prediction market

Total accumulated volume in the presidential book adds up to USD 137.64M, and the prices are from the confirmed reading of Aug 27, 10:49 PM BRT (1:49 AM UTC on Aug 28), with all five contracts cleared by the double reading.

Lula closed at 57.50% (USD 9.30M), down 5.00pp on the day, and the decline was continuous, across five successive readings. It is his lowest level since Jul 1, checked in the database backup against the record since Apr 14. Flávio Bolsonaro rose 1.30pp and closed at 36.85% (USD 9.11M), the largest gain of the day and his highest level since May 13. The gap between the two fell from 26.95pp to 20.65pp, narrowing from both sides.

The structural change is Augusto Cury (USD 2.12M), who had no contract until Aug 26 and closed at 4.05%, the third largest price in the book, with 23.75% (USD 33,000) in the third-place contract and 3.70% (USD 57,000) in the second-place one. His series has five points, all from Aug 27, between 0.80% and 5.00%: in a new contract, a swing like that does not tell price from noise.

Renan Santos closed at 2.35% (USD 11.65M) after touching the floor of his series, at 1.70% across four readings in the record and with none of the 350 points since Apr 14 below that. In the third-place contract he gave up 9.50pp, to 36.00% (USD 207,000), the largest single move on the panel, and he is still the most expensive name there. Ronaldo Caiado gave up 5.50pp in that contract, to 33.50% (USD 68,000), and closed at 0.15% (USD 6.80M) in the outright-winner one. Flávio gave up 3.00pp in the second-place contract, to 84.50% (USD 388,000), on the day Cury came to be worth 3.70% there.

In the sub-markets, impeachment of a Supreme Court justice before 2027 stays at 3.40% (USD 84,000), a fourth day flat, and the PL holds 77.00% (USD 259,000) in the Senate.

2. What the institutes recorded

PoderData/Aya (BR-04974/2026, fieldwork Aug 23 to 26, n=2,400, telephone, 2pp margin) published on Aug 27 Lula 38% and Flávio Bolsonaro 35% in the first round and 45% to 44% in the runoff, a technical tie in both, according to Poder360 and to UOL.

The comparison that informs is the house against itself: on Jul 16, Jul 30 and Aug 13 the first-round gap was 6 points, and it is now 3; in the runoff it was 1 and stays 1. The same round gives the leader a technical tie against Zema and against Caiado, 44% to 43% each, and a 7-point lead over Renan Santos. Rejection is level at 49% for the top two, and Augusto Cury comes in at 4%, his highest figure in the panel's 30-day table.

The JOTA poll (BR-07806/2026, Aug 26) still has no percentages traceable to a source the panel can reach, and nothing from it entered the table.

Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between Aug 28 and Sep 3. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication is confirmed: institutes may delay or cancel a release. Filters applied: national scope and sample ≥ 1,000. Each registration links to the TSE public search.

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples ≥ 3,000 in bold. The table lists the 5 NATIONAL polls in the window; 29 non-national records were left out by scope, 25 of them state-level and 4 with no inferable scope. The status is "registered is not published", and confirming an actual release requires two primary sources before citing a figure.

3. What the press covered

Daniel Vorcaro's testimony to the Federal Police, set for 10 AM on Aug 27 by video link, did not happen: it was postponed over an unstable connection, and the defense waited without success, according to Folha de S.Paulo. It is the second postponement: the first was on Aug 20, at the defense's request, and the new date is Aug 28. He has been held in preventive detention since March. On the same day an agency confirmed to the PF a USD 38,000 payment of his to a former Central Bank director, according to Valor Econômico.

The case entered the campaign by another route: Lula's advertising began circulating on social media with the audio in which Flávio Bolsonaro calls Vorcaro brother while asking him for money, according to Estadão. The audio was revealed in May by Intercept Brasil, and the senator said the transfers financed the Dark Horse film. What is new is the electoral use, and free airtime begins on Aug 28.

Lula went on Jornal Nacional, called the accusations about his son insinuations and denied shielding him, according to O Globo. Renan Santos, interviewed the day before, argued for a state of exception in favelas and for Brazil to have a nuclear bomb, according to Folha.

The Dark Horse production company asked André Mendonça to move the case from São Paulo to the STF, according to O Globo. On Aug 26, Flavio Dino widened the PF's access to the evidence in the same case, according to G1. Flávio Bolsonaro went to the TSE against the use of the Alvorada palace in his opponent's campaign content, according to G1. And Augusto Cury was the most searched presidential candidate after the debate, according to CNN Brasil.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The move of the day came from both sides. The leader gave up 5.00pp and the runner-up rose 1.30pp, on the same day PoderData published a technical tie in both rounds. The panel records the coincidence and assigns no cause.

2. A new name started carrying a price and is already third in the book. Augusto Cury closed at 4.05%, while the polling measured him between 1% and 3%.

3. The investigative act of the day did not take place. The testimony was postponed for the second time, and the case advanced through campaign advertising and a dispute over venue.

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Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• O Globo — Lula na TV Globo: presidente chama acusações de 'ilações' e diz que Lulinha provará inocência
• O Globo — 'Dark Horse': produtora pede a Mendonça para tirar de SP investigação sobre supostos desvios
• Valor Econômico — Agência de viagens confirma à PF pagamento de US$ 38 mil de Vorcaro para 'guia vip' na Disney a ex-diretor do BC
• G1 — Dino amplia acesso da PF às provas do Dark Horse; investigadores avaliam concentrar apuração no STF
• Folha de S.Paulo — Depoimento de Vorcaro à PF é adiado após problema técnico

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect — clique resolve à matéria):

• Poder360 — PoderData/Aya: Lula tem 38% contra 35% de Flávio no 1º turno
• UOL Notícias — Lula e Flávio empatam tecnicamente nos dois turnos, diz pesquisa PoderData
• Estadão — Propaganda de Lula tem áudio de Flávio chamando Vorcaro de 'irmão' ao pedir dinheiro a banqueiro
• Folha de S.Paulo — Renan Santos diz que vai adotar 'regime de exceção em favelas' e defende que o Brasil deve ter bomba atômica
• G1 — Flávio Bolsonaro aciona TSE para proibir que Lula utilize Alvorada para conteúdo eleitoral
• CNN Brasil — Após debate, Cury é candidato com maior crescimento de seguidores e buscas

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Aug 27, 10:49 PM BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).