August 28, 2026

1. Prediction market

Total accumulated volume in the presidential market comes to USD 138.28M in the outright-winner book, and the reading was confirmed at 3:31 PM BRT, with a live recheck at 4:09 PM. Lula held at 57.50% (USD 9.34M), unchanged, after giving up 5.00pp on August 27 across five successive readings. Flávio Bolsonaro gave up 1.20pp and stands at 35.65% (USD 9.13M), the largest single move on the panel in the outright-winner contract.

The effect on the distance between the two is the figure of the day: the gap went from 20.65pp to 21.85pp, and it widened entirely on the runner-up's side. It is the inverse of the August 27 shape, when the distance narrowed on his rise, also with the leader motionless.

In the second-place contract for the first round, which measures reaching the runoff and not winning outright, Flávio Bolsonaro made the opposite move: he rose 0.50pp, to 85.00% (USD 0.40M).

Outside the top, the move belongs to Augusto Cury, on the second day of his contracts' life: he gave up 0.55pp on winning, to 3.50% (USD 2.36M), and rose 2.95pp in the third-place one, to 26.70%. Renan Santos did the opposite, rising to 2.90% (USD 11.73M) and easing to 35.50% on third place, where he remains ahead. Ronaldo Caiado stands at 0.25% (USD 6.88M) and 34.50%. The third-place contract became the most contested on the panel, with the three within 8.80pp, in a book of USD 0.68M.

Among the sub-markets, the contract on a Supreme Court justice leaving by impeachment before 2027 remains at 3.40% (USD 84,000), a level it has held on 13 of the last 14 days. The PL leads the bet on the largest Senate caucus, with 77.00% (USD 0.29M), and the 5.00% to 5.49% band leads the annual inflation one, with 47.05% (USD 0.10M).

2. What the polling institutes recorded

No national poll was released on August 28. The most recent is still PoderData/Aya of August 27, with a technical tie in both rounds: 38% to 35% and 45% to 44%.

What exists in polling this week is Quaest's state-by-state series, covering 23 states and the Federal District: a technical tie between the top two in the country's three largest electorates, São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro. In Roraima, Flávio Bolsonaro shows 52% against 17%; in Bahia, Lula leads 50% to 17%; and in Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado leads with 32%, against 27% for Flávio Bolsonaro and 20% for Lula.

A poll with state-level scope does not enter the panel's national table, and does enter the journalistic reading.

Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between Aug 29 and Sep 4. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication is confirmed, because institutes can delay or cancel a release. Filters applied: national scope and sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol links to the TSE public record.

Source: public TSE record via the AFOS API. Samples ≥ 3,000 in bold. The table lists the 6 NATIONAL polls in the window; 34 state-level registrations from the same period were left out by scope. The status is "registered ≠ published", and confirming an actual release requires two primary sources before citing a number.

3. What the press covered

Free campaign advertising began on August 28 on radio and television, and only four candidacies hold airtime. Lula's campaign opened on the attack and used the audio in which Flávio Bolsonaro calls Daniel Vorcaro brother. Ronaldo Caiado only airs on Saturday, a day after his opponents.

In the Banco Master case, G1 reported at 5:27 PM that the Federal Police concluded the hearing of Daniel Vorcaro, on his relationship with two former Central Bank officials. It had been set for the morning, after two postponements, and as of this briefing G1 is the only source published after the act. On the same day, Estadão reported that the United States justice system asked for detailed information from the crypto-asset firm that received USD 531 million from the bank.

At the Supreme Court, André Mendonça gave X 24 hours to explain to the electoral court the filter that blocks the recommendation of candidate profiles. Flávio Dino said the judiciary's over-prominence is not desirable, but that the Supreme Court cannot stand aside. The two are the poles of a rift over who investigates the Lulinha and Dark Horse cases, and Estadão reported that the president told the head of the Federal Police to make peace with the reporting justice.

Flávio Bolsonaro was interviewed on Jornal Nacional, a day after Lula, and sought to court the financial market at a dinner with some 20 bankers, where the lack of robust proposals drew distrust. And the founder of a polling institute told the BBC that the economy, and not the Lulinha case, should decide the election.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The gap widened on a move exclusive to the runner-up. He gave up 1.20pp with the leader motionless, and across two consecutive days it has always been him setting the distance.

2. No national poll came out on August 28. Six are registered for the next seven days, three of them on August 31 alone.

3. The most contested contract on the panel is also the smallest in money. The third-place one holds USD 0.68M, less than 0.5% of the presidential book.

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Sources consulted

stories with a direct link to the article (anchor outlets):

• G1 — Daniel Vorcaro depõe à PF em investigação sobre relação com ex-servidores do Banco Central
• Estadão — Justiça dos EUA pede informações detalhadas à empresa de cripto que recebeu quase R$ 3 bi do Master
• O Globo — Mendonça dá 24 horas para X explicar ao TSE filtro que impede recomendação de perfis de candidatos
• O Globo — Flávio tenta aproximação com Faria Lima em jantar, mas falta de propostas robustas gera desconfiança
• Folha de S.Paulo — Dino diz que 'ultraprotagonismo' do Judiciário não é desejável, mas que STF não pode sair correndo
• VEJA — Caiado vai explorar trajetória e segurança pública em primeiro programa na TV

secondary stories (Google News redirect URL — the click resolves to the article):

• G1 — Horário eleitoral gratuito no rádio e na TV começa nesta sexta (28)
• Hojemais — Eleições 2026: só quatro candidatos terão tempo no horário eleitoral
• Revista Fórum — "O pior dos Bolsonaros": campanha de Lula usa áudio de Flávio com Vorcaro na estreia do horário eleitoral
• G1 — Quaest: veja os números da eleição para presidente em 23 estados e no DF
• UOL Notícias — Quaest/RR: Flávio Bolsonaro tem 52%; Lula, 17%
• Grupo Lomes — Quaest: Lula lidera disputa presidencial na Bahia com 50% contra 17% de Flávio Bolsonaro
• Diário da Manhã — Caiado lidera com 32% em Goiás, Flávio tem 27% e Lula 20%, aponta Quaest
• Brasil 247 — Depois de Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro é sabatinado na Globo nesta sexta-feira
• Folha de S.Paulo — Lulinha e 'Dark Horse' colocam Dino e Mendonça como principais antagonistas
• Estadão — Presidente com filho investigado manda chefe da PF se apaziguar com relator no STF
• BBC News Brasil — Economia vai decidir eleição, e não o caso Lulinha, diz fundador de instituto de pesquisa

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Aug 28, 4:09 PM BRT), TSE record (official electoral polls).