August 29, 2026

1. Prediction market

The total volume accumulated in the presidential race is USD 139.02M in the outright-winner book, and the reading was confirmed at 2:51 PM BRT. Lula gave up 2.00pp and stands at 55.50% (USD 9.44M). Flávio Bolsonaro rose 3.70pp and stands at 39.35% (USD 9.23M), the largest single move on the panel. The distance between them fell from 21.85pp on August 28 to 16.15pp, the lowest value in the 20-day window.

The narrowing is not a one-day event. The series shows the distance at 36.40pp on August 10, 30.80pp on August 20 and 19.90pp on August 28, without meaningful reversal across twenty days. What changed on August 29 was the shape: on the two previous days the leader had stood still and the distance moved only on the runner-up's side, and this time both moved.

In the trailing field, Augusto Cury gave up 0.25pp, to 3.25% (USD 2.56M), and Renan Santos gave up 0.65pp, to 2.25% (USD 11.82M), in a book that remains the largest on the panel. Ronaldo Caiado stayed at 0.25% (USD 6.89M). This round publishes no new number for the second-place and third-place contracts, because the double reading did not confirm them.

The contract on the impeachment of a Supreme Court justice before 2027 rose 0.05pp and stands at 3.45% (USD 84 thousand), the smallest book on the panel, where half a percentage point does not separate news from noise.

2. What the pollsters recorded

Vox Brasil released a national poll on August 29, registration BR-05519/2026, fieldwork from August 25 to 27, 2,100 in-person interviews and a margin of 2.15pp. In the first round, Lula has 37.1% and Flávio Bolsonaro 34.8%, a distance of 2.3 points. Caiado appears with 5.0%, Renan Santos with 3.3%, Zema with 2.8% and Cury with 2.6%.

In the runoff, Flávio Bolsonaro has 45.1% against 44.5% for Lula. The 0.6 point sits inside the margin, so the correct reading is a technical tie and not a lead. The comparison that carries the figure is the pollster against itself: on July 31 Vox measured 40.5% to 31.2% in the first round and 47.5% to 41.1% in the runoff, with the same in-person method and the same sample. In one exact month, the first-round distance fell 7 points and the runoff changed sides.

Two caveats. The flip holds for the Vox series and not for the set of national polls, because in the panel's 30-day window Flávio Bolsonaro had already appeared ahead in the runoff in Gerp of August 26, in Veritá of August 21 and in Gerp of August 11. And the fieldwork closed on August 27, before campaign advertising began, so the poll does not measure any advertising effect. In the same round, rejection of Lula is 52.7% and of Flávio Bolsonaro 49.3%.

Polling calendar — next 7 days

Registered with the TSE for publication between August 30 and September 5. Registration is not confirmed publication. Filters: national scope and sample of at least 1,000. Protocols linked to the TSE public search.

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists the 8 NATIONAL polls in the window; 49 state-level or undetermined-scope registrations were left out. Registered is not published, and confirming requires two primary sources.

3. What the press covered

Free campaign advertising debuted on radio on August 29, with four candidates. Lula focused on education and Flávio Bolsonaro on security. The president called his opponent the worst of the Bolsonaros, and his campaign launched a site tying the rival to militia and to Banco Master.

Flávio Bolsonaro gave an interview to TV Globo, where he tried to tie Banco Master to his opponent and promised to respect the result, and refused to account for the Dark Horse case. He also went to the electoral court against the president's remarks about campaign accounts and told the financial market that relations with the Supreme Court improve once he appoints four justices.

In the case involving the president's son, the Federal Police is investigating whether a lobbyist friend acted at the postal service, in a story published on August 28, and André Mendonça sees no room for a truce with the Federal Police leadership, while Edson Fachin works to avoid the escalation. The panel records that effort without dating it as an August 29 act, because the coverage describes it as a process under way.

In the Banco Master case, Daniel Vorcaro's testimony to the Federal Police was concluded on August 28 and its content became public between August 28 and 29: he said he did not corrupt Central Bank staff and again signalled a plea deal. No agreement has been signed, and what exists is a stated willingness. On the electoral front, the electoral court took X to task and demanded explanations about failures in its algorithm filter, and Augusto Cury gained 2 million followers over the week.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The narrowing between the top two has now run for twenty days. The distance fell to 16.15pp, the lowest in the window, and has come without interruption since the 36.40pp of August 10.

2. The runoff flip belongs to the Vox series, not to the set. And its fieldwork closed on August 27, before campaign advertising began.

3. Next week brings eight registered national polls. Three fall on August 31 and three on September 3, including Datafolha and PoderData.

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Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• O Globo — PF investiga se amiga lobista de Lulinha atuou nos Correios
• Folha de S.Paulo — Mendonça não vê margem para trégua com PF no caso Lulinha, e Fachin tenta evitar escalada da crise
• Folha de S.Paulo — Vorcaro afirma à PF que não corrompeu servidores do BC e volta a acenar com delação
• Folha de S.Paulo — TSE enquadra X e cobra explicações sobre falhas em filtro de algoritmo

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect — clique resolve à matéria):

• JOTA — Pesquisa Vox Brasil: Lula tem 37,1% no 1º turno e Flávio Bolsonaro, 34,8%
• CNN Brasil — Vox Brasil: Flávio tem 45,1%, e Lula, 44,5% no 2º turno
• CNN Brasil — Vox Brasil: Lula é rejeitado por 52,7% dos eleitores; Flávio, por 49,3%
• Exame — Pesquisa Vox Brasil: diferença entre Lula e Flávio Bolsonaro cai 7 pontos no 1º turno
• InfoMoney — Lula foca em educação e Flávio em segurança na estreia da propaganda de rádio
• Estadão — Lula chama Flávio de pior dos Bolsonaros na estreia no rádio
• Poder360 — Campanha de Lula lança site que liga Flávio a milícia e Banco Master
• Poder360 — Flávio vai ao TSE contra fala de Lula sobre contas de Bolsonaro
• O Globo — Na Globo, Flávio Bolsonaro tenta vincular Master a Lula e promete respeitar resultado
• Folha de S.Paulo — Flávio se nega a prestar contas sobre Dark Horse e tenta colar Master em Lula
• Estadão — Flávio ouve críticas do mercado ao STF e diz que relação ficará melhor quando nomear 4 ministros
• Gazeta do Povo — Primeiro programa eleitoral de rádio tem ataques entre Lula e Flávio
• G1 — MAPA: Quaest mostra como está a disputa presidencial nos estados
• SpaceMoney — Cury mira sabatina da Globo após ganhar 2 mi de seguidores

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Aug 29, 2:51 PM BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).