1. Prediction market

Total accumulated volume in the presidential race is USD 139.76M in the outright-winner book, with the reading confirmed at 4:40 PM BRT by two independent measurements. Lula stayed at 55.50% (USD 9.50M), unchanged. Flávio Bolsonaro rose 1.75pp and sits at 41.10% (USD 9.31M), the largest move on the panel this round. The distance between them fell from 16.15pp on August 29 to 14.40pp.

The two numbers the series supports are these: 14.40pp is the narrowest distance since June 10, when it read 13.70pp, and 41.10% is Flávio Bolsonaro's highest price since May 13. Neither is a series extreme: his top is still 45.50%, from May 6. The shape is that of August 28 with the sign flipped, with the leader motionless and the distance moving only on the runner-up's side.

At the back of the field, Augusto Cury gave up 1.40pp, to 1.85% (USD 2.89M), the largest drop of the round, Renan Santos stayed at 2.25% (USD 11.88M) and Ronaldo Caiado gave up 0.10pp, to 0.15% (USD 6.97M).

The placement contracts publish numbers again after one round without a new reading. In the first-round second place contract, a book of USD 5.69M, Flávio Bolsonaro sits at 85.50% and Lula at 12.45%. In the third place contract, a book of USD 0.75M, Caiado leads with 43.50%, ahead of Cury at 25.45% and Renan Santos at 25.00%.

The contract on a Supreme Court justice being impeached before 2027 rose 0.05pp and sits at 3.60% (USD 84 thousand), the smallest book on the panel. In the Senate the PL sits at 77.00% (USD 0.29M), and in annual inflation the 5.00% to 5.49% band pays 47.05% (USD 0.10M).

2. What the pollsters registered

No national poll was released on August 30. The most recent one is still Vox Brasil of August 29, registration BR-05519/2026, fieldwork from August 25 to 27, 2,100 in-person interviews and a 2.15pp margin, with the first round at 37.1% to 34.8% and the runoff at 45.1% to 44.5% for Flávio Bolsonaro, inside the margin.

The TSE registry shows the yardstick starts moving again shortly. There are eight national polls scheduled for release between August 31 and September 3, three of them on August 31. Among them is the first Datafolha presidential poll after the candidates' TV Globo interviews. Registration is not release, and no number from those eight enters the panel before it is out.

Polling calendar — next 7 days

Registered with the TSE for publication between August 31 and September 6. Registration is not confirmed publication. Filters: national scope and sample of at least 1,000. Protocols linked to the TSE public search.

Date	Pollster	Sample	Scope	TSE protocol	Conf.
Aug 31	AtlasIntel	5,000	national	BR-07972/2026	0.9
Aug 31	Real Time Big Data	2,000	national	BR-03733/2026	0.9
Aug 31	Nexus	2,000	national	BR-08900/2026	0.7
Sep 1	Real Time Big Data	2,000	national	BR-03490/2026	0.9
Sep 2	Quaest	2,004	national	BR-07065/2026	0.9
Sep 3	PoderData	3,000	national	BR-07561/2026	0.7
Sep 3	Datafolha	2,002	national	BR-03669/2026	0.9
Sep 3	100 Cidades	2,000	national	BR-02793/2026	0.7

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists the 8 NATIONAL polls in the window; 65 state-level or undetermined-scope registrations were left out. Registered is not published, and confirming it requires two primary sources.

3. What the press covered

The institutional fact of the weekend came out on August 30 and carries an earlier act date. On Saturday, August 29, Dias Toffoli signed a ruling that pulled Renan Santos and running mate Aroldo Medina's candidacy registration off the docket, which was set to be judged in the virtual plenary session of August 31. He pointed to signs of illegality because the ticket filed 18 social media profiles on August 19, with the registration submitted on August 7, outside the deadline. The TSE begins ruling on August 31 on the registrations of Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro, Zema and Renan Santos.

Lula's campaign opened three fronts at the court. It went to the TSE against posts and speeches by Flávio Bolsonaro, Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema, moved against his opponent's speech in Barretos, an act of August 29, and asked for him to be declared ineligible for economic abuse.

On the other side, Flávio Bolsonaro met Nayib Bukele's justice minister and said Brazil has few prisoners, and the former Air Force commander denied asking for votes for the president and called his statement reckless. The presidential candidates gave TV Globo interviews, and the BBC covered those of Flávio Bolsonaro and Augusto Cury.

At the Supreme Court, Gilmar Mendes barred the judges' union from charging a fee on the eve of an assembly on ethics rules, and proposals to rein in the court are multiplying in Congress and stalling under Davi Alcolumbre. In the case involving the president's son, a friend of his struck a deal with the prosecution service to avoid arrest for corruption, and the government will inject R$ 6 billion into the postal service, the state company at the centre of the inquiry into a lobbyist's activity. In the Banco Master case there was no new fact on August 30.

4. Divergences of the day

Judicial fact with no price reaction: the ruling on Renan Santos's registration is dated August 29 and the coverage came out on August 30, between 3:47 PM and 6:56 PM, across seven outlets. His outright-winner contract stayed at 2.25% on both days, and the series keeps him at 2.30% in every robot capture. His book has accumulated USD 11.88M, the largest on the panel, which makes the absence of movement hard to put down to a thin market.

Market x polling: Vox of August 29 gives Ronaldo Caiado as the third name in the first round, at 5.0%, his outright-winner contract pays 0.15% and the third-place contract puts him first, at 43.50%. The three quantities do not subtract, because they measure different things.

Price without a ballot: the runner-up rose 1.75pp on a Sunday with no national poll released, and the most recent reading has fieldwork closing on August 27. Nothing in the two measurements isolates the cause of the move, and the panel describes it as a band exit, not as a reaction to an event.

In summary

The distance between the top two is the narrowest since June 10. It is 14.40pp, and all of the narrowing came from the runner-up's side.
The declared ballot stood still and the yardstick starts moving again on August 31. Eight national polls are registered through September 3, and the last one released is still Vox of August 29.
Candidacy registration entered the calendar through the court's door. The TSE rules on the four names starting August 31, and Renan Santos's has already come off the docket.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect — clique resolve à matéria):

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Aug 30, 4:40 PM BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).

August 30, 2026