August 31, 2026

1. Prediction market

The prices in this synthesis are from the confirmed reading of August 31, 1:43 PM BRT, and the total accumulated volume adds up to USD 140.52M in the presidential book. Lula sits at 55.50% (USD 9.53M) and has not left that number for a third day running, across 19 captures of the series since the afternoon of August 29. Flávio Bolsonaro gave up 2.05pp, to 39.05% (USD 9.37M), the largest move on the panel this round.

The distance between the two widened to 16.45pp, against 14.40pp on August 30, and the widening came entirely from one side. The fall undoes much of the four-close rise that took the runner-up from 35.50% on August 27 to 41.20% on August 30, and with no isolable trigger event in the window it is a band exit by momentum.

In the placement contracts, second place in the first round keeps Flávio Bolsonaro at 85.50% (USD 0.44M), unchanged: the market still treats his reaching the runoff as near certain, and what moved was the expectation about the runoff. This round publishes no new number for the third-place contract.

In the outright-winner contract, Renan Santos sits at 1.85% (USD 11.95M), down 0.40pp, and his volume is the largest in the book among the names below the top two. Ronaldo Caiado, at 0.15% (USD 6.97M), and Romeu Zema, at 0.05% (USD 6.37M), remain below the 0.5% floor of the double reading, and this round publishes no new price for them.

In the institutional markets, the contract on a Supreme Court justice leaving by impeachment before 2027 sits at 3.60% (USD 84 thousand), unchanged, the smallest book on the panel. In the Senate, the PL is at 79.00% (USD 0.26M) to elect the largest bench, with the MDB at 14.30%. In 2026 annual inflation, the 5.00% to 5.49% band leads with 46.40%.

2. What the pollsters registered

Two national polls were released on August 31, the first since Vox Brasil of August 29. AtlasIntel/Bloomberg (BR-07972/2026, fieldwork August 25 to 30, n=5,014, electronic form, margin of 1pp) puts the first round at 43.4% to 33.7% and the runoff at 47.1% to 42.6%. BTG/Nexus (BR-08900/2026, fieldwork August 28 to 30, n=2,005, phone, margin of 2pp) puts them at 39% to 33% and 46% to 45%. The two agree on who is ahead and disagree on the size: 9.7pp against 6pp in the first round, and 4.5pp against 1pp in the runoff. Fieldwork for both closed on August 30, already after the free electoral airtime debuted on August 28.

The move both register is the third-placed name's. Nexus measures Augusto Cury at 11%, against 2% in its own round of August 24, and AtlasIntel measures him at 7.8%, tied with Renan Santos. Over the same Nexus interval, the runner-up gives up 4 points and the leader gives up 2.

On government ratings, both houses bring disapproval above approval: 52.9% by AtlasIntel, rising among younger voters and lower income brackets, and 46% approval against 51% disapproval by Nexus, the widest distance since May by that house's own measure. On rejection, Flávio Bolsonaro is at 52.7% and Lula at 52.0% in AtlasIntel.

Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between Sep 1 and Sep 7. Registration is not confirmed publication, because pollsters can delay or cancel. Filters: national scope and sample >= 1,000. Each protocol links to the TSE public query.

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples >= 3,000 in bold. The table lists the 5 NATIONAL polls in the window; 66 state records from the same period were left out by scope. The status is "registered is not published", and confirming actual release requires two primary sources before citing a number.

3. What the press covered

The Electoral Court acted against both leading campaigns on the same Sunday, August 30, and both rulings became public on August 31. Dias Toffoli, in a monocratic and precautionary decision, suspended the Renan Santos ticket's digital advertising, its transfer of electoral fund resources and its right to take part in debates. The reason is the late reporting of the social media profiles: the registration was filed on August 7 and the profiles only on August 19. The decision does not deny the registration, it suspends the campaign, and the ticket has 24 hours to provide information. The candidate denies any irregularity.

On the other side, Justice Estela Aranha suspended the Lula campaign spot titled "Conheça o currículo de Flávio Bolsonaro", which cited Banco Master and the payroll kickback scheme. The ruling held that the content goes beyond the limits of admissible criticism by presenting the senator as charged in proceedings whose complaints were dismissed. The case goes to the full panel, and the opposing campaign asked for a right of reply.

The top two names spoke about the Supreme Court on the same day: after the defeat in the Senate, Lula said he will nominate Messias to the court again, and Flávio Bolsonaro is betting on changes at the court.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The two measurements moved together in the first round, and it is the first time this week. The runner-up gave ground in the declared ballot and in the price, and the distance to the leader widened by 2.05pp.
2. The third-placed name's jump exists on one side only. Eleven percent in Nexus against 2% from the same house a week earlier, with no new price to check it against.
3. The Electoral Court hit both leading campaigns on the same Sunday, in monocratic rulings that became public on Monday.

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Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• Metrópoles — Toffoli suspends Renan Santos presidential campaign
• CNN Brasil — TSE suspends Renan Santos campaign
• Jornal de Brasília — TSE suspends Lula ad listing accusations against Flávio Bolsonaro
• Gazeta do Povo — Flávio bets on changes at the Supreme Court

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect — clique resolve à matéria):

• UOL Notícias — BTG/Nexus: Lula leads the first round, Flávio down 4 points, Cury up 9
• UOL Notícias — Atlas poll: Lula 43.4% and Flávio 33.7% in the first round
• InfoMoney — Lula disapproval reaches 52.9% and jumps among the young and low income
• Poder360 — Lula government disapproved by 51% and approved by 46%, says BTG/Nexus
• CNN Brasil — Atlas/Bloomberg: Flávio at 52.7% rejection, Lula at 52%
• UOL Notícias — Renan Santos calls Lula a friend and Flávio Bolsonaro an ally of organised crime
• Folha de S.Paulo — TSE suspends Lula ad listing accusations against Flávio Bolsonaro
• Migalhas — After the Senate defeat, Lula says he will nominate Messias to the Supreme Court again

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Aug 31, 1:43 PM BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).