September 6, 2026

1. Prediction market

The prices in this edition come from the confirmed reading of September 6, 13:53 BRT, with all five books confirmed. The winner contract is receiving a new price again, and the total accumulated volume in the presidential market adds up to USD 144.11M.

In the winner contract, Lula rose 1.00pp to 56.50% (USD 9.83M), and Flávio Bolsonaro gave up 0.45pp to 39.70% (USD 9.74M), against the reading of September 4. The distance went from 15.35pp to 16.80pp. Renan Santos is at 1.60% (USD 12.70M) and Augusto Cury at 1.15% (USD 4.16M). In the series recorded since April 14 none is a record: Lula in a range of 34.50% to 67.50%, Flávio from 22.00% to 45.50%.

The book that moved most is the third-place one: Augusto Cury rose 4.25pp to 56.20% (USD 126 thousand), reversing two consecutive falls, Renan Santos rose 1.50pp to 26.00% (USD 279 thousand), and Ronaldo Caiado is back at 10.00% (USD 114 thousand). In the runner-up contract, Flávio Bolsonaro stayed put at 89.50% (USD 612 thousand) and Lula rose 2.55pp to 7.90% (USD 474 thousand).

The Supreme Court impeachment contract before 2027 is at 8.60% (USD 88 thousand), where it stood the day before. In the Senate the PL is still at 82.50% (USD 261 thousand) and the MDB gave up 0.40pp to 10.35% (USD 8.9 thousand). The inflation band between 5.00% and 5.49% leads with 42.35%.

2. What the polling institutes registered

After two days with no national poll released, Veritá published on September 6 a survey with fieldwork from September 1 to 4, registration BR-09426/2026, 3,804 interviews and a margin of 2 points, funded from its own resources. It has Flávio Bolsonaro at 38.9% and Lula at 38.4% in the first round, a distance of 0.5 point inside the declared margin, which means a statistical tie and not a lead.

It is the second national poll of the window in that order, after Gerp of August 26, which gave 38% to 37%, and inside Veritá itself the sign flipped: on August 21 the house gave 39.3% to Lula against 39.1% for his opponent. The biggest shift is Augusto Cury, who appears at 12.2% against 2.2% in the same house's round. Renan Santos has 3.7%, Ronaldo Caiado 1.9% and Pablo Marçal 1.4%. With no runoff scenario, the most recent reading of that pairing is still the Datafolha poll of September 3. Veritá has a reliability of 2 on the house scale.

The TSE register closed the day with 830 presidential polls and 25 added, two of them national: Datafolha and a second Veritá, of 40,500.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between Sep 7 and Sep 13. Registration is not confirmed publication. Filters: national scope and sample of at least 1,000. Protocols linked to the TSE public search.

Source: public TSE register via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists the 11 NATIONAL polls of the window; 64 state-level registrations from the same period were left out by scope. The status is "registered, not published". Method caveat: scope is derived by us from the text of the registration, and in one of the eleven rows, Real Time Big Data of Sep 9, the house check does not sustain the national label, because that pollster's sampling plan declares a national universe in its state-level polls too.

3. What the press covered

The Supreme Court crisis produced two acts on September 5, and neither came from the justices at the centre of it. Gilmar Mendes filed a proposed amendment to the court's internal rules, presented to president Edson Fachin, to bar military and police officers from commissioned posts in the justices' offices, according to Folha de S.Paulo and ac24horas.

On the same day, Cristiano Zanin asked the president of the Paraná Regional Electoral Court for those responsible to be held to account after Deltan Dallagnol attached his tax secrecy data to a candidacy registration, and the court ordered Dallagnol to respond, according to Gazeta do Povo. O Globo reports that he also went to the Supreme Court and the Electoral Justice. Edson Fachin signalled taking the crisis to the full bench, a decision not yet taken, and the impeachment requests are putting pressure on the president of the Senate, according to Estadão.

On September 5 Lula asked for votes for Fernando Haddad and teased Donald Trump about the Pix payment system, according to Opera Mundi. Flávio Bolsonaro visited a man convicted over the coup plot in Paraná and called for Alexandre de Moraes to step aside, and the two have engagements in the state, according to Banda B.

Ronaldo Caiado took the crisis and the Master case to the free electoral broadcast and, on September 6, made his first public criticism of Augusto Cury, according to Valor Econômico, after being overtaken in the polls.

4. Divergences of the day

In short

1. Today's divergence is by design, not by error. The ballot closed the race to 0.5 point and the price widened it to 16.80pp on the same day, and both can be true at once: one asks who has the most votes in the first round, the other who wins the election. The panel does not choose between them.
2. The strongest number of the day came from the least reliable house in the window. Veritá has a reliability of 2 on the AFOS scale, and the other recent national polls put Lula ahead by 3 to 9.7 points. With Gerp of August 26, that is two readings in eleven days in this order: enough to record, not enough to call a turn.
3. Cury is where the two universes agree, and still disagree on size. He rises in the ballot, from 2.2% to 12.2% within the same house, and in the price, to 56.20% in third place. But in the winner contract he is worth 1.15%. The market bought his third place, not his victory, and that is the distinction the week tests.

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Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• Folha de S.Paulo · Gilmar formaliza proposta para vetar membros da PF e das Forças Armadas em gabinetes do STF
• Folha de S.Paulo · Flávio Bolsonaro chama Moraes de laranja podre do STF em visita a condenado por trama golpista
• O Globo · Zanin aciona STF e Justiça eleitoral após Deltan incluir dados sigilosos do ministro em registro de candidatura
• O Globo · Em SP, Lula pede voto em Haddad e mira Tarcísio em ato no interior
• O Globo · Moraes e Mendonça traçam estratégias para batalha pública no STF, e Fachin aguarda esclarecimentos
• Valor Econômico · Superado em pesquisas, Caiado faz primeira crítica a Cury

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

• CNN Brasil · Veritá: Flávio tem 38,9% no 1º turno; Lula, 38,4% e Cury, 12,2%
• gp1.com.br · Veritá: Flávio Bolsonaro tem 38,9% e Lula, 38,4% no 1º turno; Augusto Cury aparece com 12,2%
• ac24horas · STF: Mendes propõe vetar delegados da PF como assessores de ministros
• Estadão · Pedidos de impeachment de ministros do STF pressionam Alcolumbre, alvo do Conselho de Ética
• Opera Mundi · Lula provoca Trump e diz que vai mostrar como funciona o Pix: faça um
• Banda B · Flávio Bolsonaro e Lula estarão no Paraná nos próximos dias; veja as agendas
• Valor Econômico · Campanhas de Lula e Flávio trocam ataques, e Caiado leva STF e Master ao horário eleitoral

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Sep 6, 13:53 BRT), TSE register (official electoral polls).