September 7, 2026

1. Prediction market

The winner contract closed the confirmed reading of September 7, at 13:02 BRT, with Lula at 57.50% (USD 9.92M accumulated) and Flávio Bolsonaro at 39.45% (USD 9.80M), a rise of 1.00pp and a fall of 0.25pp against the confirmed reading of September 6. Total accumulated volume in the presidential market comes to USD 144.60M. Renan Santos, at 1.55% (USD 12.76M), gave up 0.05pp, and Augusto Cury, at 1.15% (USD 4.19M), did not move.

In the third-place book of the first round, Augusto Cury rose 2.35pp to 58.55% (USD 126 thousand) and Renan Santos gave up 1.50pp to 24.50% (USD 279 thousand). Ronaldo Caiado gave up 0.50pp to 9.50% (USD 115 thousand), Pablo Marçal 0.40pp to 1.85% (USD 48 thousand), and Romeu Zema stayed at 0.85% (USD 51 thousand).

Three books received no new price and keep the values of the previous round: the runner-up one, with Flávio Bolsonaro at 89.50% (USD 625 thousand), the Supreme Court impeachment one, at 8.60% (USD 88 thousand), and the Senate majority one, with the PL at 82.50% (USD 261 thousand). AFOS publishes only prices that two independent readings confirm, and records when there is none.

2. What the pollsters registered

Veritá published the runoff scenario of the round the panel recorded on September 6, with 3,804 interviews and registration BR-09426/2026 at the TSE, and the scenario carries 4.9% blank and spoilt and 3.6% undecided. On September 6 the panel recorded that the survey carried no such scenario, and that was what existed at the moment of capture: the CNN Brasil story was updated at 00:03 on September 7.

The other two national polls that test the pairing run the other way: Datafolha of September 3, 46% to 44% for Lula, and Quaest of September 2, 42% to 41%. The same round measures rejection of 35% for Lula and 25.8% for Flávio Bolsonaro, and Veritá carries a reliability of 2, the lowest in the window.

The Quaest poll with registration BR-01720/2026 published no figures up to the close of this brief, and the house's figures that circulated during the day are those of the previous round, registration BR-07065/2026, released on September 2. The ingestion of the TSE registry added no new poll, and the file kept the same 830 presidential registrations.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE scheduled for publication between Sep 08 and Sep 14. Inclusion does not mean confirmed publication. Filters: national scope and sample of at least 1,000, with each registration linked to the TSE public search.

Source: public TSE registry via AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists the 10 NATIONAL polls of the window; 67 registrations from the period were left out by scope. The status is "registered, not published". In two of the ten the national label comes from the sampling plan of houses whose plan does not distinguish scope, and the panel declares that fragility.

3. What the press covered

September 7 split the agenda into two stages. Lula took part in the parade in Brasília alongside Edson Fachin, of the Supreme Court, Davi Alcolumbre, of the Senate, and Hugo Motta, of the lower house, and made a national address on sovereignty, saying the country "is not and will not be anyone's colony".

Flávio Bolsonaro did not attend the parade and took part in a church service alongside Tarcísio de Freitas, who also missed it, according to O Globo and Poder360. Michelle Bolsonaro stayed away from the rally, according to VEJA.

The Supreme Court crisis was the theme of the street rallies. Romeu Zema displayed a panel showing Alexandre de Moraes behind bars on Avenida Paulista and called for a change in how justices are appointed and judicial reform. In Brasília, the right-wing rally carried an effigy of Moraes in prison and gathered candidates from Novo.

Augusto Cury held a rally in Copacabana, nodded to justice André Mendonça and criticised the polarisation between the top two. None of the acts came from the court itself: they are campaign acts about the court, and the distinction matters for reading the contract.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The two measurements ranked the race in opposite ways for a second day, and by a wider distance. Veritá published the runoff of the September 1 to 4 fieldwork round: 48.5% for Flávio Bolsonaro against 43.1% for Lula, a difference of 5.4 points that does not fit inside the survey's own margin of 2. Over the same stretch the winner contract rose 1.00pp for Lula and widened the gap from 16.80pp to 18.05pp. On September 6 the divergence was 0.5 point in the first round, today it is 5.4 in the runoff, and the price moved the same way both times.

2. The third-place book changed protagonist, and that is where the mass moved. Augusto Cury rose 2.35pp to 58.55%, a second consecutive gain, while Renan Santos gave up 1.50pp to 24.50%, breaking three gains. The two moved in the same market in opposite directions, and in the contract on winning the election Cury did not move from 1.15%: the market is consolidating him as the third-placed finisher, not as a candidate to win.

3. Three of the five books were left without a new price, and the calendar ahead is the fullest of the window. Runner-up, Supreme Court impeachment and Senate majority keep the values of the previous round. On the other side, ten national polls registered with the TSE are scheduled for release between September 8 and 11, among them a Veritá of 40,500 interviews and a Datafolha, and today's Quaest published no figures. Four days should bring more measurement than the whole week just past.

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Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• O Globo · Tarcísio troca desfile de 7 de setembro por culto ao lado de Flávio Bolsonaro
• O Globo · Na Paulista, Zema critica ministros do STF e volta a defender indicações por lista tríplice
• O Globo · Em ato em Copacabana, Augusto Cury faz aceno a ministro André Mendonça, do STF
• Valor Econômico · Zema faz protesto contra STF na avenida Paulista e defende reforma do Judiciário
• VEJA · Michelle fica fora do ato de 7 de setembro ao lado de Flávio

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

• Gazeta do Povo · Desfile de 7 de Setembro em Brasília reúne Lula, Fachin, Alcolumbre e Hugo Motta
• Gazeta do Povo · Zema exibe painel com Moraes atrás das grades em ato na Paulista
• Poder360 · Tarcísio falta a desfile de 7 de Setembro e vai a culto com Flávio
• Poder360 · Com candidatos do Novo, direita faz ato contra STF em Brasília
• Poder360 · Não seremos colônia de ninguém, diz Lula em pronunciamento
• Metrópoles · Ato da direita em Brasília tem boneco de Moraes preso e cartaz contra o PT
• CNN Brasil · Veritá: Flávio tem 48,5% no 2º turno; Lula, 43,1%
• CNN Brasil · Veritá: 35% rejeitam votar em Lula; 25,8%, em Flávio
• InfoMoney · Quaest divulga nova pesquisa neste 7 de setembro; veja o que estará no levantamento

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched Sep 07 13:02 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).