1. Prediction market

In the winner contract, Lula gave up 3.00pp to 54.50% (vol USD 10.13M) and Flávio Bolsonaro rose 4.40pp to 43.85% (vol USD 9.91M), with the gap falling from 18.05pp to 10.65pp. Total accumulated volume in the presidential market adds up to USD 145.26M, and since September 7 USD 660 thousand of fresh money came in. Renan Santos gave up 0.25pp to 1.30% (vol USD 12.83M) and Cury 0.30pp to 0.85% (vol USD 4.34M), 0.05pp above the floor of his series.

In the runner-up contract, Flávio Bolsonaro gave up 1.00pp to 88.50% (vol USD 644 thousand) and Lula stands at 9.70% (vol USD 480 thousand). The third-place book undid the previous day's movement in a single day: Cury gave up 6.55pp to 52.00% (vol USD 129 thousand) and Renan Santos rose 5.00pp to 29.50% (vol USD 282 thousand), the reverse of the day before. Ronaldo Caiado rose 0.50pp to 10.00% (vol USD 115 thousand). The Supreme Court impeachment contract gave up 1.15pp to 7.45% (vol USD 88 thousand) and the Liberal Party holds 82.50% in the Senate (vol USD 261 thousand), and all five books received a new price, which had not happened since September 6.

2. What the polling institutes recorded

BTG/Nexus released on September 8 a round with fieldwork from 4 to 7 September, BR-06790/2026, n=2,002, margin of 2 points. It hands the runoff to Flávio by 46% to 45%, inside the margin and therefore a statistical tie. It is a first for this house: on 31 August the same pairing came out 46% to 45% the other way. In the first round it published two scenarios: Lula 39% against 35% without Pablo Marçal and 39% against 34% with him.

Genial/Quaest released on September 7 a round with fieldwork from 3 to 6 September, BR-01720/2026, n=2,004. In the first round it gives Lula 36%, Flávio Bolsonaro 29% and Cury 8%, and in the runoff it ties at 41% to 41%, the first time the house has not handed the pairing to the leader. In its own series the distance had been narrowing: 5 points on 5 August, 3 on 14 August, 1 on 2 September and now zero. Cury gives ground in both houses, from 10% to 8% at Quaest and from 11% to 9% at BTG/Nexus.

With Veritá of September 6, that is three national polls in a row without handing the runoff to the leader, against Datafolha of September 3 (46% to 44%) and Quaest of September 2 (42% to 41%), and the two houses measure the same 50% disapproval of the government, with approval at 43% at Quaest and 45% at BTG/Nexus.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Registered with the TSE for publication between 9 and 15 September. Registration is not publication. Filters: national scope and sample from 1,000 up, with protocols linked to the public TSE search.

Date	Institute	Sample	Scope	TSE protocol	Conf.
09/Sep	Palver	5,000	national	BR-05420/2026	0.7
09/Sep	Real Time Big Data	1,600	national	BR-07932/2026	0.8
09/Sep	Ideia/Canal Meio	1,500	national	BR-07935/2026	0.6
10/Sep	AtlasIntel	5,000	national	BR-01452/2026	0.9
10/Sep	PoderData	3,000	national	BR-04914/2026	0.7
10/Sep	100 Cidades	2,000	national	BR-02322/2026	0.7
11/Sep	Veritá	40,500	national	BR-08093/2026	0.7
11/Sep	Datafolha	2,002	national	BR-01833/2026	0.9

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples from 3,000 up in bold. The table lists the 8 NATIONAL polls of the window; 63 were left out, 62 state-level and 1 with no determined scope. The national label of BR-07932/2026 comes from the sampling plan, does not hold up in the house's record and will be checked at release.

3. What the press covered

The act of the day is the Supreme Court's. Mendonça removed for 90 days Andrei Rodrigues, director general of the Federal Police, and Leandro Almada da Costa, intelligence director, and ordered an inquiry into intelligence reports on judges. In the decision he states he was monitored for more than 30 days, and that is his allegation, not an established fact.

In the Second Panel virtual session at 10am, Nunes Marques and Fux brought forward their votes and formed a majority with the rapporteur, but Gilmar Mendes asked for more time to review and the judgment is suspended, with Dias Toffoli's vote outstanding. The solicitor general is working on a strategy to take the case to Fachin, and the police leadership sees a political decision.

Thirteen retired justices, among them Joaquim Barbosa and Rosa Weber, called on Fachin to act and spoke of the court's most acute crisis. The government treated the removal as an intrusion with an electoral slant, and Lula gathered aides to respond.

On the campaign trail, Haddad said that Daniel Vorcaro would not stay in jail if Flávio Bolsonaro were elected, and Estadão recorded that the senator leads campaign spending, with almost R$ 50 million.

4. Divergences of the day

Market and poll on the same side for the first time: the winner contract closed 7.40pp over the same stretch in which two national polls shortened the runoff. Two triggers fall inside the window, the morning poll and the Federal Police decision, and the page does not choose between them.

The houses disagree with one another by more than the margin allows: with overlapping fieldwork, Quaest gives the leader 7 points of first-round advantage, BTG/Nexus gives 4 and Veritá put the runner-up 0.5 point ahead. That is 7.5 points of spread, more than double the 2 points of declared margin. In the runoff the three agree.

Cury beats the leader at one house and loses at the other: BTG/Nexus puts him ahead by 45% to 43% in a runoff, and Quaest, in the same week and in the same pairing, gives the leader 39% to 35%. That is 6 points, on the day his third-place contract gave up 6.55pp and the impeachment one fell 1.15pp, when the crisis produced its most concrete act.

In summary

The convergence of the day is measured, not interpreted. On 6 and 7 September poll and price pointed in opposite directions; on 8 September they moved together, with three national polls in a row not handing the runoff to the leader. What sets this day apart is the backing: USD 660 thousand of fresh money in 23 hours, in a contract of USD 145.26M.

The first round is where the measurement does not close, and that matters more than the convergence. Three houses measured the same week and delivered 7, 4 and minus 0.5 point of advantage for the leader. The spread of 7.5 points is wider than the sum of the declared margins, and a difference like that is not sampling chance: it is method. Anyone quoting a single house will be quoting a methodological choice without knowing it.

And third place shows what happens when the book is thin. Cury gave up 6.55pp and Renan Santos rose 5.00pp in the same market, undoing the previous day's movement, on volumes of USD 129 thousand and USD 282 thousand, against millions in the presidential one. The page publishes both with the same double-reading rigour and records the difference in thickness, because it changes the weight each figure can carry.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched Sep 08 12:00 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).

September 8, 2026