1. Prediction market

The Brazilian presidential market on Polymarket, which accumulates a total volume of USD 145.98M across the active contracts, closed the September 9 reading with Lula at 52.50% (USD 10.20M) and Flávio Bolsonaro at 46.25% (USD 10.01M). Against the price confirmed on September 8, Lula gave up 2.00pp and Flávio rose 2.40pp.

In the runner-up book for the first round, Flávio gave up 10.00pp and stands at 78.50% (USD 696 thousand), while Lula rose 9.90pp and stands at 19.60% (USD 537 thousand).

Among the other names in the winner contract, Renan Santos rose 0.55pp to 1.85% (USD 12.98M), a book that accumulates more money than the leader's own despite the low price. Augusto Cury gave up 0.15pp, to 0.70% (USD 4.43M), and Ronaldo Caiado rose 0.10pp, to 0.25% (USD 7.35M).

The contract on the removal of a Supreme Court justice by impeachment before 2027 gave up 2.60pp and stands at 4.85% (USD 88 thousand), a second consecutive day of decline. In the series since April 14 it runs from 2.10% to 19.30%, and today's reading sits inside the range. In the 2026 inflation bands, the 5.00% to 5.49% band remains modal, at 42.00% (USD 16.6 thousand).

The third-place book for the first round and the Senate majority book receive no new price in this round. AFOS only publishes a price that two independent readings confirm, and says so when there is none.

2. What the polling institutes recorded

Three national polls were released on September 9. Ideia/Canal Meio (BR-07935/2026, fieldwork September 4 to 7, n=1,500, margin of 2.5pp) has Lula ahead by 38.4% to 37.3%. Palver (BR-05420/2026, same fieldwork, n=5,000, margin of 3pp) records an exact tie at 40% to 40%. Gerp (BR-00251/2026, fieldwork September 3 to 8, n=2,400, margin of 2pp) inverts it, with Flávio at 37% against 34%.

In the runoff, none of the three hands the pair to Lula: 46% to 46% at Ideia/Canal Meio, 46% to 44% for Flávio at Palver and 47% to 40% for Flávio at Gerp.

The figure that separates the three houses most is not the one for the top two. Renan Santos appears at 11% at Palver and 4% at the other two, a difference of 7 points that exceeds the sum of the margins. On rejection, Ideia/Canal Meio measures Lula at 46.6% and Flávio at 45.7%, while Gerp measures 49% and 40%.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Registered with the TSE for publication between September 10 and September 16. Registration is not publication. Filters: national scope and sample from 1,000 up, with protocols linked to the TSE public search.

Date	Institute	Sample	Scope	TSE protocol	Conf.
Sep 10	AtlasIntel	5,000	national	BR-01452/2026	0.9
Sep 10	PoderData	3,000	national	BR-04914/2026	0.7
Sep 10	100 Cidades	2,000	national	BR-02322/2026	0.7
Sep 11	Veritá	40,500	national	BR-08093/2026	0.7
Sep 11	Datafolha	2,002	national	BR-01833/2026	0.9
Sep 14	Quaest	2,004	national	BR-03607/2026	0.9
Sep 14	NEXUS	2,000	national	BR-04076/2026	0.7

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples from 3,000 up in bold. The table lists the 7 NATIONAL polls in the window; 58 non-national registrations from the same period were left out by scope. The status is "registered is not published", and confirming actual release requires two primary sources before citing a figure.

3. What the press covered

The institutional act of the day reversed the one from the day before. Flávio Dino ordered the reinstatement of the director general of the Federal Police, Andrei Passos Rodrigues, and of the intelligence director, Leandro Almada, both removed by a single-judge decision from André Mendonça on September 8. In the ruling, reproduced by Folha de S.Paulo, Dino points to a decision taken in one's own cause and cites the impact on the investigation into the fund behind the film "Dark Horse". G1 recorded that Dino's decision is the one currently in force.

On that same September 9, Mendonça approved the plea agreement of the businessman who handled transfers to that film's fund, money linked to Daniel Vorcaro. The agreement itself is not from that day: the Prosecutor General's Office had already closed it, and that step was reported on September 3. What changes on September 9 is the judicial approval, and the ruling remains under seal.

Both sides reacted the same day. Lula called for the complete lifting of secrecy in the Master case as a response to the crisis, and Flávio Bolsonaro said that "Brazil has no president, it has turned into a pickup game" after the reinstatement. JOTA recorded that Ideia/Canal Meio shows the leader losing ground in the first round.

4. Divergences of the day

House against house: three institutes measured the same period, with fieldwork overlapping from September 3 to 8, and arrived at opposite signs in the first round. In the runoff the spread between them runs from zero to 7 points on the same pair. The panel records all three without choosing, because choosing one would replace measurement with preference.

Sample against result: the largest sample of the day, Palver's 5,000, is the one that produces an exact tie, and the smallest, Ideia/Canal Meio's 1,500, is the one that gives the leader the widest advantage. A larger sample narrows the margin; it does not guarantee convergence between houses.

Market against poll: the price moved in the direction two of the three houses point to, and it moved more in the runner-up contract than in the winner contract. The two quantities do not subtract from one another, because the market prices who wins the election and the poll measures declared vote. What can be compared is direction, and today it is the same.

In summary

The runner-up book for the first round moved twice as much as the winner contract, and the two say the same thing. Flávio gave up 10.00pp, to 78.50%, and Lula rose 9.90pp, to 19.60%. In the winner contract it was 2.00pp and 2.40pp, and the distance fell from 10.65pp to 6.25pp. In a book of USD 145.98M, the day repriced who leads the first round, not who wins the election.

Three houses measured the same period and arrived at opposite signs in the first round. Ideia/Canal Meio has Lula at 38.4% to 37.3%, Palver an exact tie at 40% and Gerp has Flávio at 37% to 34%, with fieldwork overlapping from September 3 to 8. That is 4.1 points between the extremes, against margins of 2.0 to 3.0.

None of the three hands the runoff to the leader, and that is the sixth consecutive national reading. The run starts with Veritá on September 6, and the one before it, the Datafolha of September 3, had Lula at 46% to 44%. On the same day the Supreme Court reversed the removal of the Federal Police command decided the day before, and the impeachment contract gave up 2.60pp, to 4.85%.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched Sep 09 16:51 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).

September 9, 2026