September 10, 2026

1. Prediction market

The winner contract for the presidential election changed hands. In the confirmed reading of September 10, at 2:20 PM BRT, Flávio Bolsonaro is at 52.85% (USD 10.17M) and Lula at 43.50% (USD 10.46M), against 46.25% and 52.50% in the confirmed reading of September 9. The total accumulated volume in the presidential book adds up to USD 147.09M.

The previous top was 45.80%, on September 9. The 43.50% leaves Lula 24.00pp below his own top, of 67.50% on August 16, and the 9.00pp fall in a single day is his largest daily move in the series.

The second-place contract for the first round confirms the same picture from the opposite side: Flávio fell 7.00pp and stands at 71.50% (USD 718 thousand), while Lula rose 4.90pp and stands at 24.50% (USD 578 thousand). In other words, the money now sees it as more likely that Lula finishes the first round in second. In the third-place contract, Augusto Cury is the favourite at 49.25% (USD 150 thousand), ahead of Renan Santos at 42.50% (USD 300 thousand) and Ronaldo Caiado at 5.00% (USD 120 thousand).

Outside the main block, the Supreme Court impeachment contract gave up 0.50pp and stands at 4.35% (USD 88 thousand), 14.95pp below the top of 19.30% on September 4. The Senate book receives no new price in this round. Renan Santos remains at 2.15% with USD 13.15M accumulated, the largest individual volume in the panel.

2. What the pollsters registered

The TSE registry closed the day with 851 presidential polls, with no new entry and no withdrawal.

The national poll of the day is PoderData/Aya, registration BR-04914/2026, fieldwork from September 6 to 9, 3,000 interviews across 623 municipalities in the 27 federal units and a margin of 1.8 points. In the first round it measures Lula at 38% against 36% for Flávio Bolsonaro, with Augusto Cury at 10%, Renan Santos at 3%, Caiado at 2% and Pablo Marçal at 2%. In the runoff it gives 47% to Flávio against 45% for Lula. The same round brings a new pairing, with Cury ahead of Lula by 44% to 43%.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE scheduled for publication between Sep 11 and Sep 17. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication, because pollsters can delay or cancel a release. Filters applied: national scope and sample of at least 1,000. Each registration links to the TSE public search.

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists the 4 NATIONAL polls of the window; 43 registrations from the same period fall outside it by scope or by sample. The status is registered rather than published. Datafolha confirmed a release for September 11, covering the presidential race plus four states and the Federal District.

3. What the press covered

The heaviest act of the day was the Federal Police operation in the investigation into the financing of the film Dark Horse. According to Poder360, there were 49 search and seizure warrants in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Ceará and the Federal District, authorised by Flávio Dino, and the force points to congressman Mario Frias as the central figure in the scheme. Valor Econômico details R$ 2 million in his parliamentary earmarks to the Instituto Conhecer Brasil and R$ 645.4 thousand to the production company, and Gazeta do Povo recorded the seizure of weapons. Dino barred Frias from leaving the country and from contacting other people under investigation. Flávio Bolsonaro called the operation an attempt at political interference.

The chronology has three distinct dates: the plea agreement of the operator of the transfers came out on September 3, the approval by André Mendonça on September 9, and the operation on September 10.

At the Supreme Court, Fachin cancelled the plenary session for the second day running, after the first cancellation on September 9. Gazeta do Povo ties the decision to the extraordinary session of September 15, which will examine the Federal Police report on Alexandre de Moraes and Daniel Vorcaro. The BBC describes the pressure on the head of the Court, and O Globo recorded that the government moved to have him overturn the removal of the Federal Police leadership, a move superseded by the reinstatement of September 9.

On the campaigns, Folha de S.Paulo reported that the PT called an emergency meeting seeing the candidacy at risk, Metrópoles linked rising disapproval to the pressure on the government, and SpaceMoney recorded a reading from the centrão that Flávio came out favoured. The BBC gathered the international coverage.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

The lead in the presidential contract changed hands for the first time in this cycle. Flávio Bolsonaro rose 6.60pp and stands at 52.85%, Lula fell 9.00pp and stands at 43.50%, and the 6.25pp gap that favoured Lula on September 9 became 9.35pp the other way. The 52.85% is the highest point in the series, which opens on April 14 with 506 readings.

The poll of the day runs the same way, at an intensity that does not compare. PoderData/Aya measures 38% to 36% in the first round and 47% to 45% in the runoff, and the two points fit inside the margin of 1.8 in both scenarios, which makes each of them a statistical tie. It is the seventh consecutive national reading since September 6 without Lula ahead in that pairing.

The week holds four national polls, and the largest has 40,500 interviews. Datafolha and Veritá are scheduled for September 11, Quaest and NEXUS for September 14, all registered with the TSE and none of them confirmed so far.

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Sources consulted

stories with a direct link to the article (anchor outlets):

• Poder360 · “Dark Horse”: PF vê Frias como “agente central” em esquema
• Gazeta do Povo · Fachin cancela sessão do STF pela 2ª vez antes de análise do caso Moraes-Vorcaro
• CartaCapital · Caso ‘Dark Horse’: Dino proíbe Mario Frias de sair do Brasil
• Folha de S.Paulo · Fachin cancela segunda sessão seguida do plenário diante de crise histórica do STF
• Folha de S.Paulo · Flávio Bolsonaro diz que operação que mira filme 'Dark Horse' é interferência política de Flávio Dino
• Valor · Mario Frias repassou R$ 2 milhões em emendas para ONG de produtora de 'Dark Horse'
• Gazeta do Povo · PF apreende armas ligadas a Mário Frias em operação do caso Dark Horse

secondary stories (Google News redirect URL, the click resolves to the article):

• Poder360 · PoderData/Aya: Lula tem 38% contra 36% de Flávio no 1º turno
• CNN Brasil · PoderData/Aya: Flávio tem 47% no 2º turno; Lula, 45%
• Folha de S.Paulo · PT vê campanha de Lula em risco com crise no STF e convoca reunião de emergência com aliados
• SpaceMoney · Centrão vê Flávio favorito após crise no STF
• Metrópoles · Com desaprovação do governo em alta, crise na PF pressiona campanha de Lula
• Folha de S.Paulo · Datafolha divulga pesquisa presidencial e de 4 estados e DF nesta sexta-feira (11); live comenta resultados
• BBC · Fachin sob pressão: como presidente do STF tenta debelar crise às vésperas de eleição
• O GLOBO · Governo Lula aciona Fachin para derrubar decisão que afastou Andrei da chefia da PF
• BBC · 'Guerra aberta em plena campanha eleitoral': como imprensa internacional noticia a crise no STF

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Sep 10, 2:20 PM BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).