1. Prediction market

In the winner contract, in the confirmed reading of September 12 at 1:10 PM BRT, Flávio Bolsonaro is at 49.95% (USD 10.47M) and Lula at 48.50% (USD 10.81M), against 53.95% and 42.50% in the confirmed reading of September 11. The total volume accumulated in the presidential book adds up to USD 148.77M, and the distance between the two went from 11.45pp to 1.45pp.

The move cancels and reverses that of the two previous days, when the gap had widened from 6.25pp to 9.35pp and then to 11.45pp.

Neither price is an extreme: the 49.95% sits 5.15pp below the peak of Flávio's series, of 55.10% on September 10, and the 48.50% sits 19.00pp below Lula's peak, of 67.50% on August 16. The one marking an extreme is Ronaldo Caiado, with 0.15% in the winner contract, below the floor of the series opened on April 14, which was 0.20% on September 4.

In the third-place contract the favourite widened his lead: Augusto Cury rose 2.90pp, to 55.80% (USD 173 thousand), 4.50pp below his own peak, of 60.30% on September 4, and Renan Santos fell 1.50pp, to 37.00% (USD 299 thousand). Caiado rose 3.00pp there, to 8.00% (USD 119 thousand). The second-place contract publishes no new price, because the capture lock's two readings disagreed by 0.75pp.

The contract on a Supreme Court justice leaving by impeachment before 2027 gave back 1.60pp and stands at 6.70% (USD 90 thousand), 19.40pp below the peak of the series, of 26.10% recorded on September 11. In the Senate, Partido Liberal rose 1.00pp and stands at 84.00% (USD 261 thousand).

2. What the pollsters registered

The national poll that enters is the Datafolha released on September 11, fieldwork from September 8 to 10, 2,002 face-to-face interviews, a margin of 2.0 points and registration BR-01833/2026 with the TSE. In the first round it measures Lula 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro 35%, with Cury at 6%, Caiado at 4%, Renan Santos at 3% and Zema at 2%.

In the runoff pairing Lula comes out ahead by 46% to 44%, and there had been eight straight national polls since September 6 in which he did not. The 2-point difference fits inside a margin of 2.0, so the pollster measures a technical tie. In the other four pairings Lula wins them all, and in three of them the distance falls outside the margin, one of them 48% to 37% against Renan Santos. The round also measures 46% rejection for each of the top two and 75% of voters who say they have decided. The TSE registry still holds 879 presidential polls.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between Sep 14 and Sep 16. Appearing in the table does not mean publication is confirmed, because pollsters can delay or cancel a release. Filters: national scope and sample of at least 1,000, with each registration linked to the TSE public search.

Date	Pollster	Sample	Scope	TSE registration	Conf.
Sep 14	Quaest	2,004	national	BR-03607/2026	0.9
Sep 14	NEXUS	2,000	national	BR-04076/2026	0.7
Sep 15	MDA	2,002	national	BR-06902/2026	0.9
Sep 15	Indexa	2,000	national	BR-03482/2026	0.7
Sep 16	Datatrends	2,000	national	BR-08691/2026	0.7
Sep 16	American Analytics	2,000	national	BR-01431/2026	0.7

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists the 6 NATIONAL polls of the September 13 to 19 window; 39 registrations from the same period were left out by scope or by sample. The status is registered and not published.

3. What the press covered

The act of the day is procedural, not substantive. Edson Fachin denied Alexandre de Moraes's request to try in a single proceeding the cases involving Moraes himself and André Mendonça, kept the session of September 15 and scheduled a second one for September 23. Moraes had argued there was a risk of contradictory decisions. The two sources disagree on what exactly enters the September 23 session, and for that reason this page records the scheduling of the date and not its object.

On the eve of the September 15 session, Gilmar Mendes reinforced Cristiano Zanin's request for access to the contents of Daniel Vorcaro's mobile phone and asked that Fachin call in the Federal Police should Mendonça not hand the material over, a request the Estadão also recorded.

Allies of the top two candidates spoke of stability despite the crisis in the Supreme Court.

4. Divergences of the day

The book moved ten points and the ballot moved none. Between the confirmed readings of September 11 and 12 the gap went from 11.45pp to 1.45pp. In the same interval, Datafolha repeated exactly the pairing it had already measured on September 3, 46% to 44%. Price is the probability of winning the election and a poll is voting intention, and AFOS does not subtract one from the other. What is recorded is that one instrument moves in hours and the other, at the same house, has been still for nine days.

It is the first round of the window in which the two agree on the size. The book marks a distance of 1.45pp and the pollster measures 2 points in the direct pairing, and both fit inside the poll's margin of 2.0. In the previous rounds the book marked 11.45pp against the same 2 points. The convergence is about the distance, not about who wins, and it does not make either of them more certain.

Today's shake is not rare this month, and that is measurement, not impression. Over 147 pairs of consecutive days in the series recorded since April 14, the gap moved ten points or more in three of them, and two of those are September 7 to 8 and September 9 to 10. The Supreme Court contract gave back 1.60pp on the same day Fachin split the trial. The order of events is measured, the link between them is not.

In summary

The gap in the winner contract closed ten points between two confirmed readings, and neither price is an extreme of the series. Flávio Bolsonaro is at 49.95%, 5.15pp below his own peak, and Lula at 48.50%, 19.00pp below his. The one marking an extreme is Ronaldo Caiado, with 0.15% in the winner contract, below the floor of the series opened on April 14.

The poll that enters breaks a run of eight and measures a technical tie, not a turnaround. In Datafolha, Lula comes out ahead by 46% to 44%, a difference that fits inside the margin of 2.0, and the same house had 46% to 44% on September 3 and 47% to 43% on August 21.

The Supreme Court separated what Moraes wanted joined, and set two dates before the first round. The September 15 session stands and a second one was scheduled for September 23. Next week brings six national polls between September 14 and 16, none of them confirmed.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Sep 12, 1:10 PM BRT), registro TSE (official electoral polls).

September 12, 2026