September 13, 2026

1. Prediction market

The presidential winner contract widened the spread between the top two for the first time since September 11. In the confirmed reading of September 13, at 13:17 Brasília time, Flávio Bolsonaro stands at 49.65% (USD 10.54M) and Lula at 47.50% (USD 10.92M), against 49.95% and 48.50% in the confirmed reading of September 12. The distance went from 1.45pp to 2.15pp, with the total presidential volume at USD 149.26M.

In the first-round third-place contract, Renan Santos fell 2.50pp to 34.50% (USD 300 thousand). Augusto Cury eased 0.20pp to 55.60% (USD 173 thousand). Ronaldo Caiado rose 0.50pp to 8.50% (USD 119 thousand), for a second day.

The first-round runner-up contract publishes a price again, with Flávio Bolsonaro at 77.00% and Lula at 22.00%, in a book of USD 7.00M. In the readings recorded over the last four days it varied between 4.00pp and 9.00pp per day, which is the scale at which it should be read.

The Supreme Court impeachment contract gave back the whole excursion and stands at 4.60% (USD 90 thousand), against 6.70% on September 12. In the recorded closing values it closed September 10 at 4.60%, rose to 7.30% and 6.70% over the two following days, and today it returns to the same value. It is not an extreme: it is the 177th lowest of 504 points recorded since April 14, 21.50pp below the series high. With USD 90 thousand accumulated, isolated orders move the price, in both directions. The Senate contract, of USD 261 thousand, does not publish a new price in this round.

2. What the polling institutes recorded

No national poll was released on September 13, and that is calendar. The TSE registry ingested on this date carries 36 insertions and two withdrawals, both state-level.

What came out on the night of September 12 was state-level, and for that reason does not enter the national table: Datafolha published five surveys. In the first round they put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead in São Paulo, by 35% to 33%, in Rio de Janeiro, by 39% to 35%, and in the Federal District, by 40% to 32%, and put Lula ahead in Minas Gerais, by 37% to 35%, and in Pernambuco, by 55% to 24%. The most recent national reading remains the Datafolha poll of September 11, which puts Lula ahead in the runoff pair by 46% to 44%, inside the margin.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between Sep 14 and Sep 18. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication, because institutes can delay or cancel a release. Filters applied: national scope and sample ≥ 1,000. Each registration number links to the TSE public search.

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples ≥ 3,000 in bold. The table lists the 12 NATIONAL polls in the window; 56 state-level registrations from the same period were left out by scope. The status is "registered ≠ published", and confirming an actual release requires two primary sources before citing a number.

3. What the press covered

The Supreme Court proceedings advanced twice. On September 12, at 20:40, Edson Fachin took over as rapporteur of the investigation into the alleged relationship between Alexandre de Moraes and Daniel Vorcaro, and ordered the Master and INSS inquiries to be held suspended at the Court's Presidency, according to Poder360, Gazeta do Povo and O Globo.

One precision matters here, because the headlines diverge among themselves. The Poder360 body says, in so many words, that the decision was taken without stripping André Mendonça of the rapporteurship, and that it was by common agreement, with the two justices having spoken beforehand. Headlines describing the act as a removal are not supported by their own text.

On September 13, the Federal Police answered the 24-hour deadline Fachin had set regarding Daniel Vorcaro's phone, stating it has the technical means to produce and forward a copy of the material to the justices, according to CartaCapital and Gazeta do Povo. Director-general Andrei Rodrigues added that a copy had already been sent on March 8, 2026, at the request of Mendonça's own office, according to Poder360.

The session on the request to investigate Moraes remains set for September 15 and will be broadcast live, the first public act of the proceeding and less than a month from the first round. On September 12, Gilmar Mendes reinforced Cristiano Zanin's request for full access to the phone, and asked Fachin to call in the Federal Police if it is not handed over.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

The spread widened because both sides pulled back, not because the leader advanced. Flávio Bolsonaro eased 0.30pp, to 49.65%, and Lula eased 1.00pp, to 47.50%, with the distance going from 1.45pp to 2.15pp. Reading the spread alone misleads: this pair CLOSED 10.00pp on September 12 and today gives back 0.70pp, seven percent of that, in a book of USD 149.26M.

The largest move of the day is not in the contract that decides the election. Renan Santos fell 2.50pp in the third-place one and stands at 34.50%, a second day of decline and 4.00pp over two, in a book of USD 300 thousand against the USD 149.26M of the presidential. That widened the gap of that market's favourite from 18.80pp to 21.10pp without him advancing, because Augusto Cury also eased 0.20pp.

The week that begins is the hardest test this window has produced. There are twelve national polls between September 14 and 18, five on the 17th alone and the Veritá poll of 40,500 interviews on the 18th. On August 21, two national polls from the same day inverted the runoff between them, and now there are five. This Sunday brought no release, and the TSE registry went from 879 to 913 presidential polls.

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Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• O Globo · Fachin assume relatoria de procedimento que envolve Moraes após Mendonça enviar processo
• Estadão · Fachin assume relatoria do caso Moraes e pede envio de materiais do INSS e Master
• Folha de S.Paulo · Gilmar repete Zanin e pede acesso a celular de Vorcaro
• Valor · Gilmar pede que Fachin acione PF se Mendonça não repassar dados de celular de Vorcaro
• G1 · Datafolha em SP: Flávio Bolsonaro, 35%; Lula, 33%; Cury, 7%

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

• Poder360 · Fachin assume caso Moraes-Vorcaro e suspende investigação INSS e Master
• Poder360 · Andrei diz que Mendonça pediu acesso à cópia do celular de Vorcaro
• Gazeta do Povo · Fachin assume relatoria de investigação sobre suspeitas de crimes de Moraes e Vorcaro
• Gazeta do Povo · PF diz a Fachin que pode enviar a ministros cópia de material encontrado no celular de Vorcaro
• Gazeta do Povo · STF confirma transmissão ao vivo de sessão que vai julgar Alexandre de Moraes
• CartaCapital · PF diz a Fachin que pode enviar dados do celular de Vorcaro a ministros
• Metrópoles · Datafolha em PE: Lula lidera com 61% no 2º turno; Flávio tem 30%
• Diario de Pernambuco · Datafolha em Pernambuco: Lula tem 55% e Flávio Bolsonaro, 24% no primeiro turno

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Sep 13, 13:17 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).