1. Prediction market

The presidential winner contract widened the spread for the second straight day. In the confirmed reading of September 14, at 19:44 Brasília time, Flávio Bolsonaro stands at 51.95% (USD 10.68M) and Lula at 45.50% (USD 11.01M), against 49.65% and 47.50% in the confirmed reading of September 13. The distance went from 2.15pp to 6.45pp, with the total presidential volume at USD 149.82M.

Neither is an extreme: Flávio sits 3.15pp below his series high, of 55.10% on September 10, and Lula 22.00pp below his, of 67.50% on August 16.

In the first-round runner-up contract, a book of USD 7.12M, Lula rose 1.75pp, to 23.75%, and Flávio fell 1.50pp, to 75.50%. In the third-place contract, Augusto Cury fell 10.20pp, to 45.40% (USD 196 thousand), Ronaldo Caiado rose 7.00pp, to 15.50% (USD 129 thousand), and Renan Santos rose 3.00pp, to 37.50% (USD 307 thousand). None is an extreme: Cury reached 43.90% on September 9, and Caiado 45.50% on August 30.

The Supreme Court impeachment contract rose 0.65pp, to 5.25% (USD 91 thousand), 20.85pp below the 26.10% high of September 11. The Senate contract publishes a price again, with the Liberal Party at 84.00% (USD 261 thousand).

2. What the polling institutes recorded

Two national polls came out on September 14. BTG/Nexus, with fieldwork from September 11 to 13 by phone and 2,003 interviews, puts Lula ahead by 42% to 37% in the first round and by 47% to 46% in the runoff pair, according to Gazeta do Povo and Folha de S.Paulo. Genial/Quaest, with in-person fieldwork from September 10 to 13 and 2,004 interviews, puts Lula ahead by 36% to 31% in the first round and Flávio ahead by 42% to 40% in the pair, according to Estadão and GZH.

Within each house the pair moved in opposite directions: BTG/Nexus had 46% to 45% for Flávio on September 8, and Genial/Quaest, 41% to 41% on September 7. Government approval stands at 43% against 50% in Quaest and at 47% against 49% in Nexus. The TSE registry remains at 913 presidential polls.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between Sep 15 and Sep 18. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication, because institutes can delay or cancel a release. Filters applied: national scope and sample ≥ 1,000. Each registration number links to the TSE public search.

Date	Institute	Sample	Scope	TSE registration	Conf.
Sep 15	MDA	2,002	national	BR-06902/2026	0.9
Sep 15	Indexa	2,000	national	BR-03482/2026	0.7
Sep 16	American Analytics	2,000	national	BR-01431/2026	0.7
Sep 16	Datatrends	2,000	national	BR-08691/2026	0.7
Sep 17	AtlasIntel	5,000	national	BR-06221/2026	0.9
Sep 17	PoderData	3,000	national	BR-00360/2026	0.7
Sep 17	Gerp	2,400	national	BR-00535/2026	0.7
Sep 17	Datafolha	2,002	national	BR-04029/2026	0.9
Sep 17	100 Cidades	2,000	national	BR-00749/2026	0.7
Sep 18	Veritá	40,500	national	BR-02032/2026	0.7

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples ≥ 3,000 in bold. The table lists the 10 NATIONAL polls in the window; 56 registrations from the same period were left out by scope or by sample. The status is "registered ≠ published", and confirming an actual release requires two primary sources before citing a number.

3. What the press covered

André Mendonça, rapporteur of the Master case, opened access on the morning of September 14 to Petition 15.645, which holds a report on Daniel Vorcaro's payment network. The decision granted a request by Edson Fachin, after a request by Alexandre de Moraes backed by the Prosecutor General's Office, according to Gazeta do Povo and G1. On the same day, Deputy Prosecutor General Hindenburgo Chateaubriand asked Mendonça's office to clarify what steps were taken in the inquiry, because opening the petition does not show what the rapporteur did, according to Poder360.

On September 14 the Federal Police delivered to the offices of Cristiano Zanin and Gilmar Mendes a copy of the data extracted from Vorcaro's phone, at the direct request of both, after Mendonça refused to pass it on, according to Gazeta do Povo and CNN Brasil.

The September 15 session on Moraes starts at 10:00, with Fachin reading the report, defining what will be judged and voting first, according to Gazeta do Povo and Folha de S.Paulo. The Presidency barred journalists from the plenary, citing limited capacity, and Flávio Dino said he had not been consulted and would have favoured their presence, according to Metrópoles and O Globo.

On the same day, the Federal Police carried out Operation Transparência 3, authorized by Dino, against congressman Cezinha de Madureira, on suspected influence peddling before the higher courts and with no arrest, according to Gazeta do Povo and O Globo.

4. Divergences of the day

Market × polls: the two national polls of September 14 tie the runoff with opposite signs, and the price moved 4.30pp in a single direction, most of it after 13:02, hours after both releases. The order of the facts is measured, the link between them is not.

Market × market: the winner contract and the runner-up contract are independent books, and both moved the same names in the same direction on the same day. A single book moving alone would be easier to read as an isolated flow.

Poll × poll: BTG/Nexus, by phone, and Genial/Quaest, in person, measure the same 5 points in the first round and come out with opposite signs in the pair. The difference fits inside the margin, so neither contradicts the other.

In summary

The spread widened 4.30pp with both sides moving in opposite directions, and most of it after 13:02. Flávio Bolsonaro rose 2.30pp, to 51.95%, and Lula fell 2.00pp, to 45.50%, in a presidential book of USD 149.82M. At 13:02 the distance was 3.25pp, with Lula flat, and at 19:44 it stood at 6.45pp. It is not an extreme: in the recorded readings it has already reached 14.30pp in Flávio's favour, on September 11.

Two independent books moved in the same direction, and that is what separates repricing from noise. In the first-round runner-up contract, Lula rose 1.75pp, to 23.75%, and Flávio fell 1.50pp, to 75.50%. Whoever gains the chance of winning loses the chance of finishing second, and the USD 7.12M book confirmed the winner one. The move of the most points on the day is outside it: Augusto Cury fell 10.20pp in the third-place contract, a book of USD 1.15M.

The two national polls of the day agree on the first round and disagree on the sign of the runoff, and the week still has ten to come. BTG/Nexus and Genial/Quaest give Lula the same 5 points in the first round, and in the pair the first gives 47% to 46% for Lula and the second 42% to 40% for Flávio, both inside the margin. From September 15 to 18, ten national polls registered with the TSE come out, five of them on the 17th and Veritá, with 40,500 interviews, on the 18th.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Sep 14, 19:44 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).

September 14, 2026