1. Prediction market

In the Polymarket winner contract, in the reading confirmed on September 25, 17:08 BRT, Flávio Bolsonaro stands at 55.55% (USD 11.83M) and Lula at 43.50% (USD 12.21M), exactly the prices of the certified reading of September 24 at 22:45 BRT. The gap stays at 12.05pp, after three straight days of closing. Total accumulated volume in the presidential book adds up to USD 155.09M across 19 contracts, USD 0.19M above the previous certified reading.

The same price does not mean a book standing still: across the 8 points recorded in the backup between the two readings, Flávio Bolsonaro's ranged from 54.30% to 56.30%, and Lula's stayed at 43.50% in all of them. With the pair sum at 99.05 at both ends, the normalized change is also zero, and neither of them is at an extreme of the series recorded since April 14.

In the third place book the raw figure misleads: Renan Santos rises 1.50pp, to 45.50% (USD 0.41M), Augusto Cury 1.10pp, to 41.05% (USD 0.28M), and Ronaldo Caiado 0.50pp, to 14.50% (USD 0.17M), but the book sum went from 99.25 to 102.25, and normalized Renan Santos gains 0.17pp and Augusto Cury gives up 0.11pp. In the runner-up one, Flávio Bolsonaro gives up 1.00pp, to 74.50% (USD 1.16M), and Lula rises 0.85pp, to 25.35% (USD 0.99M).

The Supreme Court impeachment contract stays at 3.35% (USD 0.09M), with no movement. In the Senate one, the PL stands at 89.00% (USD 0.27M), 5.50pp above the book's last confirmed reading, of September 21, and in the 2026 inflation one the 5.00% to 5.49% band leads with 42.35% (USD 0.02M), in the 17:24 BRT reading.

2. What the polling firms registered

No new national poll was released on September 25, and the six of September 24 remain the most recent. Datafolha breakdowns came out, such as the 38% tie in the interior and 46% of evangelical women with Flávio Bolsonaro against 26% with Lula, along with state polls of the presidential race, such as Real Time Big Data in Alagoas, with Lula at 51% against 33%.

Approval measured on September 24 runs from 41% at PoderData to 47% at Datafolha, and disapproval sits between 50% and 55% across the five firms the panel records. The TSE registry adds up to 1,138 presidential polls, 13 more than on September 24.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between September 26 and October 02. Registered is not published: firms can delay or cancel. Filters: national scope and sample of 1,000 or more, with each registration linked to the TSE.

Date	Firm	Sample	Scope	TSE registration	Conf.
26/Sep	Veritá	40,500	national	BR-04467/2026	0.7
27/Sep	Gerp	2,400	national	BR-03929/2026	0.7
28/Sep	Quaest	2,004	national	BR-06520/2026	0.9
28/Sep	Nexus	2,000	national	BR-07557/2026	0.7
29/Sep	JOTA Jornalismo	6,000	national	BR-05869/2026	0.7
29/Sep	Palver	5,000	national	BR-02990/2026	0.7
29/Sep	AtlasIntel	5,000	national	BR-04391/2026	0.9
29/Sep	Gerp	2,400	national	BR-08168/2026	0.7
29/Sep	Gerp	2,400	national	BR-00509/2026	0.7
29/Sep	Vox Brasil	2,100	national	BR-00895/2026	0.7
29/Sep	Real Time Big Data	1,600	national	BR-04482/2026	0.8
30/Sep	100 Cidades	2,000	national	BR-01122/2026	0.7
30/Sep	Indexa	2,000	national	BR-00698/2026	0.7
30/Sep	Ideia	2,000	national	BR-08706/2026	0.7

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. These are the 14 national polls in the window, and 92 registrations from the same period were left out by scope or by sample. Caveats: Real Time's national label on BR-04482/2026 comes from the sampling plan, which the firm repeats in 16 of 16 state polls, and it will be checked at release; and the two Gerp rows, BR-08168/2026 and BR-00509/2026, register fieldwork that ends after the release date.

3. What the press covered

In the Master case, the Superior Council of the Federal Prosecution Service (MPF) formed a majority against removing Paulo Gonet from the cases, and in O Globo's 17:22 update the score on that point was 7 to 0, while on opening an internal inquiry into the Prosecutor General's conduct it stood at 4 to 3 in favour of opening, with two votes still to be cast. On the same day, Edson Fachin gave the PGR five days to state its position on the pending requests in the Master and INSS investigations, and the decision resolves none of them.

On the campaign trail, the government had scheduled for the afternoon of September 25 the announcement of a provisional measure to ban betting sites, and Lula defended ending betting at a campaign rally. Flávio Bolsonaro called the measure hypocritical and electioneering and said Lula is the father of the Tigrinho, the online slot game, and Estadão records that he said he tried to speak with Daniel Vorcaro, in custody since November 17, 2025, in the four days before the arrest, to discuss the film Dark Horse.

The race took on a religious theme: a rumour linking Flávio Bolsonaro to stripping Our Lady of Aparecida of the title of patron saint circulated among Catholics, he denied it, and Geraldo Alckmin said Lula keeps the Catholic traditions. Augusto Cury said in Recife that he backs neither Lula nor Flávio Bolsonaro in an eventual second round.

4. Divergences of the day

Price x book: the winner contract repeats the previous certified reading to the cent, but between the two the price of Flávio Bolsonaro ranged from 54.30% to 56.30% in the recorded points, while Lula's stayed at 43.50% in all of them. The same number at both ends does not describe a book standing still.

Raw x normalized: in third place the top three rise in the raw figure, adding up to 3.10pp, and the book sum rose 3.00pp over the same interval. Normalized, each one's move stays below 0.20pp.

Poll x poll: approval measured on the same September 24 runs from 41% at PoderData to 47% at Datafolha, 6 points between firms that heard the same electorate in the same week, a wider distance than that of disapproval, from 50% to 55%.

In summary

The winner contract stopped in the same place after three days of closing, but the book did not stop. Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula came out with the same 55.55% and 43.50% as the certified reading of September 24, and the gap stayed at 12.05pp, but in the points recorded between the two readings the price of Flávio Bolsonaro ranged from 54.30% to 56.30% and Lula's did not move.

With no new national poll, what changes the calendar is the registry, and next week concentrates the releases. Veritá, with 40,500 interviews, is registered for September 26, Quaest and Nexus for the 28th, and September 29 has seven rows, the day with the most rows in the table. Until then, the six national polls of September 24 still do not agree on who leads either round.

The Master case moved through procedure, not through a decision. The Superior Council of the MPF formed a majority to keep Paulo Gonet on the cases and, on opening an internal inquiry into his conduct, stood at 4 to 3 with two votes still to be cast. Edson Fachin opened a five-day deadline for the PGR to give its opinion on the pending requests, without deciding any of them. The Supreme Court impeachment contract stayed at 3.35%, with no movement, and the panel links neither to the other.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Sep 25, 17:08 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).

September 25, 2026