September 26, 2026

1. Prediction market

In the Polymarket winner contract, confirmed reading of September 26, 12:00 BRT, Flávio Bolsonaro rises 0.60pp, to 56.15% (USD 11.91M), and Lula gives up 1.00pp, to 42.50% (USD 12.33M), against the certified reading of September 25 at 17:08 BRT. The gap goes from 12.05pp to 13.65pp, the first widening between confirmed readings since September 21. Normalized by the pair sum, which fell from 99.05 to 98.65, the move is 0.84pp to each side. Total accumulated volume in the presidential book adds up to USD 155.40M across 19 contracts, USD 0.31M above the previous certified reading.

Neither of them is at an extreme of the series recorded since April 14: Flávio Bolsonaro stands 5.55pp from the top, 61.70% of September 21, and Lula 8.00pp from the floor, 34.50% of April 25. In the same book, the Renan Santos contract gives up 0.25pp, to 0.45% (USD 14.48M), below every point recorded up to September 25, and it remains the one with the largest accumulated volume in the presidential book.

In the runner-up book, Lula gives up 0.90pp, to 24.45% (USD 0.99M), and Flávio Bolsonaro stands still at 74.50% (USD 1.16M). In the third place one, Augusto Cury rises 0.30pp, to 41.35% (USD 0.28M), and Renan Santos stays at 45.50% (USD 0.41M), so the distance between the two closes from 4.45pp to 4.15pp. Ronaldo Caiado remains at 14.50% (USD 0.17M).

In the contract on the party with the most Senate seats, the PL rises 3.50pp, to 92.50% (USD 0.27M), more than any presidential contract since the previous confirmed reading, and the MDB gives up 1.10pp, to 1.45%. The Supreme Court impeachment contract stays at 3.35% (USD 0.09M), with no movement, and in the 2026 inflation one the 5.00% to 5.49% band leads with 46.45% (USD 0.02M), in the 12:23 BRT reading.

2. What the polling firms registered

No new national poll was released on September 25 and 26, and the six of September 24 remain the most recent. What came out were state breakdowns of the presidential race: Datafolha puts Flávio Bolsonaro ahead in São Paulo, by 38% to 33%, in Rio de Janeiro, by 44% to 38% and in the Federal District, by 41% to 34%, Lula ahead in Pernambuco, by 60% to 24%, and a statistical tie in Minas Gerais, with 39% to 37% for Lula.

The TSE registry adds up to 1,162 presidential polls, 24 more than on September 25.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between September 27 and October 03, with national scope and a sample of 1,000 or more. Registered is not published: firms can delay or cancel.

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. These are the 15 national polls in the window, and 92 registrations from the same period were left out by scope or by sample. Caveats: the national label on the two Real Time polls, BR-04482/2026 and BR-09503/2026, comes from the sampling plan, which the firm repeats in its state polls, and it will be checked at release; and the two Gerp rows, BR-08168/2026 and BR-00509/2026, register release on September 29, before fieldwork begins.

3. What the press covered

In the Master case, the Superior Council of the Federal Prosecution Service (MPF) kept Paulo Gonet on the cases by 9-0 and shelved by 5-4 the request for an inquiry into his conduct on September 25. That point had stood at 4-3 in favour of opening and ended in shelving with the last two votes, the final one cast by the council's vice-president, Nicolao Dino, who followed the rapporteur. Estadão and VEJA record that Daniel Vorcaro, in custody since November 17, 2025, attended on January 31, 2024 a lunch in honour of Gonet, who claims to have no friendship with the banker.

At the Supreme Court, the criminal case against Eduardo Bolsonaro ended in conviction by 7-3, in a virtual trial concluded on the night of September 25, with a one-year sentence of detention to be served initially in the open regime for defaming congresswoman Tabata Amaral. The rapporteur was Alexandre de Moraes, and André Mendonça, Luiz Fux and Nunes Marques voted for acquittal. On the same day, Mendonça ordered social networks to take down more than a thousand posts carrying the false story that Flávio Bolsonaro would strip Our Lady of Aparecida of the title of patron saint.

In government, the Finance Ministry published late on the night of September 25 the ordinance that keeps for another 30 days the subsidy of R$ 2.12 per litre of diesel, whose R$ 1.12 portion was due to expire on September 26, and the newspaper records that the amount does not rise. On the same night, the government published the provisional measure that bans betting sites. Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign says Lula is using it to respond to pressure over household debt, and the candidate called the measure an electoral swindle; Lula's campaign will preach the tactical vote in the last week before the first round, according to Folha.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

The gap reopened for the first time since September 21, and the widening is small next to the closing that came before it. It goes from 12.05pp to 13.65pp, after having fallen since the 22.40pp of September 21.

With no new national poll, the calendar concentrates next week. Quaest and Nexus are registered for September 28, September 29 has seven rows in the table, and Datafolha registered October 1.

The Master case moved through a collegiate decision, and the Supreme Court concluded the case against Eduardo Bolsonaro. The Supreme Court impeachment contract stayed at 3.35%, with no movement, and the panel links neither to the other.

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Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• G1 · Conselho do MPF decide manter Gonet no caso Master e arquivar pedido de apuração por relação com Vorcaro
• Gazeta do Povo · Conselho do MPF mantém Gonet no caso Master e rejeita investigação sobre elo com Vorcaro
• Estadão · Vorcaro foi a almoço em homenagem a Gonet em janeiro de 2024
• VEJA · Vorcaro: 'Vou estar no almoço com Gonet. Gilmar deve estar'
• Gazeta do Povo · STF condena Eduardo Bolsonaro por difamar Tabata Amaral. Veja como votaram os ministros
• O Globo · Às vésperas das eleições, Fazenda prorroga por 30 dias subsídio de R$ 2,12 por litro do diesel
• Folha de S.Paulo · Campanha de Flávio diz que Lula reage à pressão sobre endividamento com fim de bets e minimiza ganho eleitoral
• Folha de S.Paulo · Campanha de Lula pregará voto útil na última semana antes do primeiro turno

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

• G1 · Datafolha em SP: Flávio Bolsonaro, 38%; Lula, 33%; Cury, 7%; Caiado, 5%; Renan, 4%; Zema, 2%
• G1 · Datafolha no RJ: Flávio Bolsonaro, 44%; Lula, 38%; Cury, Renan e Caiado, 3%
• G1 · Datafolha no DF: Flávio, 41%; Lula, 34%; Caiado; 9%; Cury, 4%; Renan, 3%; Zema, 1%
• G1 · Datafolha em PE: Lula, 60%; Flávio Bolsonaro, 24%; Cury, 3%; Renan, 2%; Caiado, 2%
• Folha de S.Paulo · Datafolha: Flávio Bolsonaro lidera em SP e RJ, Lula fica à frente em PE, e MG tem empate
• Folha Vitória · Conselho do MPF arquiva pedido de investigação contra Gonet
• Folha de S.Paulo · André Mendonça determina que redes sociais derrubem notícia falsa sobre Flávio Bolsonaro e Nossa Senhora
• Metrópoles · MP do Governo Lula que prevê fim das bets já está em vigor. Entenda regras
• G1 · Flávio Bolsonaro chama proibição das bets de oportunismo de Lula e 'estelionato eleitoral'

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Sep 26, 12:00 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).