September 27, 2026

1. Prediction market

In the Polymarket winner contract, confirmed reading of September 27, 12:47 BRT, Flávio Bolsonaro rises 1.10pp, to 57.25% (USD 11.96M), and Lula stands still at 42.50% (USD 12.40M), against the reading of September 26, 12:00 BRT. The gap goes from 13.65pp to 14.75pp, the second widening in a row between confirmed readings. With the pair sum rising from 98.65 to 99.75, the normalized move is 0.48pp to each side, and more than half of the raw rise comes from the sum. Total accumulated volume in the presidential book adds up to USD 155.76M across 19 contracts.

Neither of them is at an extreme of the series recorded since April 14: Flávio Bolsonaro stands 4.45pp from the top, of September 21, and Lula 8.00pp from the floor, of April 25. The Renan Santos contract, standing still at 0.45% (USD 14.52M), remains the one with the largest accumulated volume in the presidential book.

In the third place book, Augusto Cury rises 3.05pp, to 44.40% (USD 0.29M), and Renan Santos falls 4.00pp, to 41.50% (USD 0.43M). Normalized by the book sum, the moves are 3.37pp and 3.51pp. The distance goes from Renan Santos 4.15pp ahead to Augusto Cury 2.90pp ahead, and Ronaldo Caiado remains at 14.50% (USD 0.17M). In the second place one, Lula rises 1.00pp, to 25.45% (USD 1.04M), and Flávio Bolsonaro stays at 74.50% (USD 1.19M).

The Supreme Court impeachment contract falls 0.35pp, to 3.00% (USD 0.09M). In the 2026 inflation one, the 5.00% to 5.49% band leads with 48.35% (USD 0.02M), in the 13:21 BRT reading.

2. What the polling firms registered

No national voting intention poll was released from September 25 to 27, and the six of September 24 remain the most recent. The Datafolha poll of September 26 measured institutions: 47% rate the work of the Supreme Court justices as bad or very bad, the highest level in the series started in 2019, and 37% rate Congress that way, against 18% who rate it excellent or good.

In the states, the Quaest poll of Pará, released on September 26 with fieldwork from September 22 to 25, puts Lula at 40% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 35%, and Augusto Cury third, with 7%. With the state breakdowns from Datafolha and Quaest, UOL counts Lula ahead in 11 states, Flávio Bolsonaro in eight and in the Federal District, and a statistical tie in the other seven units.

The TSE reported on September 26 that Kassio Nunes Marques changed the poll registration system: firms now report whether they used audio, video or images in the interviews and the order of the questions, which, according to the court, creates no new obligation. The registry adds up to 1,234 presidential polls, 72 more than on September 26. The next national Quaest poll, of September 28, has fieldwork from September 24 to 27, which spans the provisional measure on betting sites, of September 25.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between September 28 and October 4, with national scope and a sample of 1,000 or more. Registered is not published: firms can delay or cancel.

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. These are the 17 national polls in the window, and 143 registrations from the same period were left out by scope or by sample. Caveats: the national label on the two Real Time polls, BR-04482/2026 and BR-09503/2026, and on the Datavero poll, BR-07844/2026, comes from the sampling plan, and it will be checked at release; and the two Gerp rows register release on September 29, before fieldwork begins.

3. What the press covered

The TSE president, Kassio Nunes Marques, suspended by injunction the jingle "Foi o Flávio Bolsonaro" ("It was Flávio Bolsonaro"), from Lula's campaign, which links the opponent to the rachadinha (salary kickback scheme) and to the Master case. The decision was signed on September 22, became public on September 26 and was submitted to the full court. On September 27, Flávio Dino, of the Supreme Court, in a single-justice ruling, overturned André Mendonça's order at the TSE that had ordered the deletion of a post by comedian Antonio Tabet about Our Lady of Aparecida, and ordered the platforms to restore the publications removed on the same grounds.

Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign filed on September 25 a criminal complaint seeking the preventive detention of a Secom coordinator over reposts of the false story about the patron saint. The judge who received the filing left the request to the pre-trial judge, and Secom says the allegations are unfounded.

On betting sites, the Finance Ministry estimates bettors' balances at R$ 1.7 billion, which can be withdrawn until October 5. Lula called the ban a "very drastic step", and Flávio Bolsonaro again called him "father of Tigrinho".

The last debate before the first round, on TV Globo on October 1, has four invitees: Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro, Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado. Renan Santos was left out under the legal criterion, of a party with at least five members of Congress elected in 2022, and his campaign is preparing a protest in front of the broadcaster. Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro have not confirmed attendance.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

The move of the day was in the third place book, and there the normalized figure confirms the raw one. In the winner contract, more than half of Flávio Bolsonaro's rise comes from the pair sum.

With no new national poll since September 24, the calendar concentrates 17 through October 2. Seven are scheduled for September 29.

Two judicial acts on campaign advertising arose from requests by Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign, with opposite results. Lula's jingle is suspended by an injunction of September 22, and the order to delete posts about the patron saint fell at the Supreme Court on September 27.

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Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• Jovem Pan · Dino derruba decisão de Mendonça que mandou apagar post de humorista sobre Nossa Senhora a pedido de Flávio
• Brasil 247 · Dino derruba decisão de Mendonça e restabelece postagem de Tabet sobre Nossa Senhora Aparecida
• Folha de S.Paulo · Flávio pede prisão de funcionário do Planalto por repostagens sobre Nossa Senhora
• Poder360 · Fazenda estima em R$ 1,7 bi saldo de apostadores em sites de apostas
• Folha de S.Paulo · Renan Santos prepara protesto na Globo se ficar fora do debate

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

• Folha de S.Paulo · Datafolha: avaliação negativa do STF sobe para 47% e bate recorde
• G1 · 37% avaliam Congresso como ruim ou péssimo, aponta Datafolha; 18% dizem que desempenho é ótimo ou bom
• CNN Brasil · Quaest: no Pará, Lula tem 40% e Flávio Bolsonaro, 35% no 1º turno
• UOL Notícias · Pesquisas apontam vitória de Lula em 11 estados; Flávio leva em 8 e no DF
• BOL · TSE exige que institutos indiquem uso de áudios e vídeos nas pesquisas
• O Globo · A próxima pesquisa Quaest antes do debate presidencial da TV Globo
• UOL Notícias · Nunes Marques suspende propaganda de Lula que associa Flávio Bolsonaro a rachadinha e Master
• CartaCapital · Kassio derruba jingle de Lula sobre Flávio Bolsonaro com menções a Vorcaro, Queiroz e miliciano
• estadao.com.br · Flávio Bolsonaro pede prisão de coordenador da Secom por incentivo à fake news sobre N. S. Aparecida
• G1 · Lula diz que tomou 'atitude muito drástica' ao proibir bets e que apostas viraram 'desgraça na vida das pessoas pobres'
• Folha de S.Paulo · Flávio Bolsonaro volta a chamar Lula de 'pai do Tigrinho' após MP que proíbe bets
• ncnews.com.br · Flávio Bolsonaro avalia participar de debate da Globo, mas aguarda decisão de Lula

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Sep 27, 12:47 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).