September 28, 2026

1. Prediction market

In the Polymarket winner contract, confirmed reading of September 28, 13:49 BRT, Flávio Bolsonaro rises 0.80pp, to 58.05% (USD 12.14M), and Lula falls 1.00pp, to 41.50% (USD 12.52M), against the reading of September 27, 12:47 BRT. The gap goes from 14.75pp to 16.55pp, the third widening in a row between confirmed readings. The pair sum fell from 99.75 to 99.55, and the normalized move is 0.92pp to each side. Total accumulated volume in the presidential book adds up to USD 156.21M across 19 contracts.

Neither of them is at an extreme of the series recorded since April 14: Flávio Bolsonaro stands 3.65pp from the top, of September 21, and Lula 7.00pp from the floor, of April 25. The Renan Santos contract falls to 0.35% (USD 14.61M) and remains the one with the largest accumulated volume in the presidential book.

In the third place book, Augusto Cury rises 0.70pp, to 45.10% (USD 0.29M), and Renan Santos rises 1.50pp, to 43.00% (USD 0.45M), so the distance between the two narrows from 2.90pp to 2.10pp. Ronaldo Caiado falls 1.00pp, to 13.50% (USD 0.18M). In the second place one, Lula falls 0.90pp, to 24.55% (USD 1.07M), and Flávio Bolsonaro stays at 74.50% (USD 1.25M).

The Supreme Court impeachment contract stays at 2.95% (USD 0.09M), practically unchanged. In the 2026 inflation one, the 5.00% to 5.49% band leads with 48.85% (USD 0.02M), in the 14:12 BRT reading.

2. What the polling firms registered

Quaest, with 2,004 in-person interviews from September 24 to 27, puts Lula at 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 34% in the first round, with Ronaldo Caiado and Augusto Cury at 4% and Renan Santos at 3%, and a tie at 42% in the second round, after Flávio Bolsonaro was ahead by 42% to 41% on September 21. The same poll measured transfer in the second round: of Romeu Zema's voters, 81% would go to Flávio Bolsonaro, and of Renan Santos's, 48%, according to O Globo. Government approval went from 44% to 46%, and disapproval from 50% to 49%.

BTG/Nexus, with 2,000 interviews by telephone from September 25 to 27, puts Lula at 42% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 37% in the first round, with Cury and Caiado at 5% and Renan Santos at 4%, and Lula ahead in all five second round pairings, 46% to 44% against Flávio Bolsonaro. Rejection stands at 51% for Flávio Bolsonaro and 48% for Lula. The TSE registry remains at 1,234 presidential polls, with no new entries on September 28.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between September 29 and October 5, with national scope and a sample of 1,000 or more. Registered is not published: firms can delay or cancel.

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. These are the 15 national polls in the window, and 126 registrations from the same period were left out by scope or by sample. Caveats: the national label on the two Real Time polls and on the Datavero poll comes from the sampling plan, and it will be checked at release; and the two Gerp rows register release on September 29, before fieldwork begins.

3. What the press covered

At the Supreme Court, Flávio Bolsonaro's defense appealed on September 28 against the decision by Flávio Dino that, on September 27, restored comedian Antonio Tabet's post about Our Lady of Aparecida, and Dino asked Edson Fachin for a full-court session to review the decision. On the same day, two betting associations asked Luiz Fux to suspend the provisional measure that bans betting sites, a request also reported by Folha.

In the campaign, Flávio Bolsonaro confirmed on September 27 that he will attend the TV Globo debate of October 1 even without Lula, and Lula's campaign has not decided yet. In Goiânia, Flávio Bolsonaro accused the CNBB (the Brazilian bishops' conference) of helping the PT with the false story about the patron saint, and the bishops replied that a lie is not fought with a lie. Lula defended a council to nominate Supreme Court justices and fixed terms for them.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

The price and the polls of the day moved in opposite directions. Both national polls measured Lula better, and the winner contract widened the gap for the third reading in a row, to 16.55pp.

The last week before the first round begins with 15 national polls registered. Seven are scheduled for September 29, and Datafolha registered October 1, the day of the TV Globo debate.

The dispute over the posts about Our Lady reached the full Supreme Court. The full court review requested by Dino decides whether the overturning of Mendonça's order stands.

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Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• Correio Braziliense · BTG/Nexus: Flávio e Lula seguem como mais rejeitados, com 51% e 48%
• G1 · Flávio pede suspensão da decisão que liberou post de humorista sobre Nossa Senhora; Dino envia caso ao plenário do STF
• Jovem Pan · Dino derruba decisão de Mendonça que mandou apagar post de humorista sobre Nossa Senhora a pedido de Flávio
• CartaCapital · Dino pede a Fachin sessão do plenário para julgar publicações sobre Nossa Senhora
• Folha de S.Paulo · Associação de jogos e loterias pede ao STF suspensão da MP que vetou bets
• Folha de S.Paulo · Em Goiânia, Flávio Bolsonaro acusa CNBB de ajudar PT com fake news
• G1 · Flávio Bolsonaro acusa CNBB de participar de fake news; bispos dizem que ‘mentira não se combate com mentira’

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

• G1 · Quaest, 1º turno: Lula, 39%; Flávio Bolsonaro, 34%; Caiado, 4%; Cury, 4%; Renan, 3%; Zema, 1%
• CartaCapital · Quaest: Lula e Flávio Bolsonaro empatam em 42% na projeção de 2º turno
• O Globo · Quaest: Flávio 'herdaria' a maior parte dos votos de Cury, Caiado, Renan e Zema em eventual 2º turno; veja números
• O Globo · Quaest: aprovação de Lula sobe para 46%, mas desaprovação ainda fica acima, em 49%
• CNN Brasil · Nexus/BTG: Lula tem 42% no 1º turno; Flávio, 37%, Caiado 5% e Cury, 5%
• CNN Brasil · Nexus/BTG: Lula tem 46% no 2º turno; Flávio, 44%; há empate técnico
• O Globo · Bets acionam STF e pedem suspensão da proibição determinada pelo governo Lula
• O Globo · Flávio Bolsonaro confirma ida a debate da Globo e disse que espera enfrentar Lula
• CartaCapital · Lula ainda não decidiu se vai a debate na ‘Globo’; campanha avalia impacto sobre indecisos
• Folha de S.Paulo · Lula defende conselho para indicação de nomes ao STF e mandato para ministros

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Sep 28, 13:49 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).