September 29, 2026

1. Prediction market

In the Polymarket winner contract, confirmed reading of September 29, 11:58 BRT, Flávio Bolsonaro rises 1.75pp, to 59.80% (USD 12.27M), and Lula falls 2.00pp, to 39.50% (USD 12.59M), against the reading of September 28, 13:49 BRT. The gap goes from 16.55pp to 20.30pp. The pair sum fell from 99.55 to 99.30, and the normalized move is 1.91pp to each side. Total accumulated volume in the presidential book adds up to USD 156.82M across 19 contracts, with USD 0.61M of new money.

Neither of them is at an extreme of the series recorded since April 14: Flávio Bolsonaro stands 1.90pp from the top, 61.70% on September 21, and Lula 5.00pp from the floor, 34.50% on April 25. The Renan Santos contract stays at 0.25% (USD 14.68M) and remains the one with the largest accumulated volume in the presidential book.

In the third place book, Renan Santos rises 8.50pp, to 51.50% (USD 0.46M), and Augusto Cury falls 9.25pp, to 35.85% (USD 0.30M). Normalized by the book sum, which went from 103.10 to 101.85, the move is 8.86pp and 8.55pp. The distance goes from Cury 2.10pp ahead to Renan Santos 15.65pp ahead, and Ronaldo Caiado stays at 13.50% (USD 0.19M). In the second place one, Flávio Bolsonaro rises 2.00pp, to 76.50% (USD 1.27M), and Lula falls 0.95pp, to 23.60% (USD 1.09M).

The Supreme Court impeachment contract stays at 2.90% (USD 0.09M). In the 2026 inflation one, the 5.00% to 5.49% band leads with 49.65% (USD 0.02M), in the 12:07 BRT reading.

2. What the polling firms registered

AtlasIntel, with 5,005 online interviews from September 23 to 28 and a margin of 1 point, puts Lula at 45.3% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 42.2% in the first round, with Renan Santos at 5.2%, and Flávio Bolsonaro at 47.7% to 47.6% in the second.

Palver, with 5,000 interviews and a margin of 2.4 points, shows a tie at 44% in the first round, with Renan Santos at 8%, and Flávio Bolsonaro at 47% to 45% in the second. Vox Brasil, with 2,100 in-person interviews, puts Lula at 41.1% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 37.8% in the first round, with Caiado in third at 3.8%, and Flávio Bolsonaro at 45.2% to 44.7% in the second.

Gerp, with 2,400 interviews by telephone, registered with the TSE for September 27 and released on the 29th, puts Flávio Bolsonaro at 42% and Lula at 40% in the first round, with Cury in third at 5%, and Flávio Bolsonaro at 50% to 43% in the second, the only distance of the four outside the margin. Adding Quaest and BTG/Nexus of September 28, Lula leads the first round in four of the six, and Flávio Bolsonaro leads the second round also in four.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between September 30 and October 6, with national scope and a sample of 1,000 or more. Registered is not published: firms can delay or cancel.

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. These are the 16 national polls in the window, eight of them on October 3, the eve of the first round, and 156 registrations from the same period were left out by scope or by sample. Caveat: the national label on the Real Time, Datavero, Veritá and PoderData polls comes from the sampling plan, and it will be checked at release.

3. What the press covered

At the Supreme Court, Luiz Fux suspended on the night of September 28 the decision by Flávio Dino that had cleared the posts about Our Lady of Aparecida, and restored, pending review by the full court, André Mendonça's order at the TSE to take them down within 24 hours, as also reported by the BBC. On the same day, Kassio Nunes Marques complained of an "undue overlap of jurisdiction" by the Supreme Court over the TSE, and, according to Folha, Edson Fachin is expected to take the case to the full court on Wednesday, September 30. In official letters released on September 29, Gilmar Mendes pressed Fachin, at the CNJ (National Council of Justice), and Luís Felipe Salomão, at the STJ (Superior Court of Justice), for a thorough review of court-ordered government debt payments (precatórios), citing the Master case, as also reported by G1.

The government went to court against 17 betting sites and is seeking R$ 1 billion in damages, according to Folha.

In the campaign, allies assess that Lula is expected to skip the TV Globo debate of October 1, with no decision announced, as also reported by Valor.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

The gap widened for the fourth confirmed reading in a row. It went from 16.55pp to 20.30pp, with Flávio Bolsonaro 1.90pp from the top of the series.

The national polls of the day split by round. Lula leads the first round in four of the six from September 28 and 29, and Flávio Bolsonaro leads the second round also in four.

Eight national polls are registered for October 3, the eve of the first round. Before that, Datafolha registered October 1, the day of the TV Globo debate.

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Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• G1 · Fux suspende decisão de Dino e retoma determinação de Mendonça sobre posts de Nossa Senhora Aparecida
• G1 · Kassio Nunes Marques reclama de 'indevida sobreposição de competência' do STF sobre o TSE
• Folha de S.Paulo · Kassio reclama de interferência do STF, e Fachin deve levar caso de Nossa Senhora a plenário na 4ª
• Gazeta do Povo · Gilmar cobra Fachin e STJ por pente-fino em precatórios e volta a citar “Turma do KN”
• G1 · Gilmar cobra de Fachin e Salomão reação a irregularidades em precatórios e cita Master
• G1 · Governo vai à Justiça contra 17 bets e pede R$ 1 bilhão de indenização por danos morais coletivos por vício de apostadores
• Folha de S.Paulo · Governo processa bets e pede R$ 1 bilhão em indenização e ressarcimento ao SUS

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

• Jovem Pan · Atlas/Bloomberg: Lula tem 45,3% e Flávio Bolsonaro, 42,2% no 1º turno
• CNN Brasil · Atlas: Flávio tem 47,7% das intenções de voto no 2º turno; Lula, 47,6%
• CNN Brasil · Palver: Lula e Flávio empatam com 44% das intenções de voto no 1º turno
• CNN Brasil · Palver: Flávio tem 47% das intenções de voto no 2º turno; Lula, 45%
• exame.com · Pesquisa Vox Brasil: Lula tem 41,1% e Flávio Bolsonaro, 37,8%, no 1º turno
• exame.com · Pesquisa Vox Brasil: Flávio Bolsonaro tem 45,2% e Lula, 44,7%, no 2º turno
• CNN Brasil · Gerp: Flávio tem 42% das intenções de voto no 1º turno; Lula, 40%
• CNN Brasil · Gerp: Flávio tem 50% das intenções de voto no 2º turno; Lula, 43%
• BBC · Fux derruba decisão de Dino sobre posts de Nossa Senhora Aparecida: entenda o vaivém a menos de uma semana da eleição
• Folha de S.Paulo · Lula busca evitar desgaste e deve faltar a debate da Globo, adiando embate com Flávio Bolsonaro
• Valor Econômico · Lula pode não ir ao debate da Globo na 5ª

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Sep 29, 11:58 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).