September 30, 2026

1. Prediction market

In the Polymarket winner contract, the last recorded point of September 30, at 23:00 BRT, puts Flávio Bolsonaro at 62.50% (USD 12.57M) and Lula at 37.50% (USD 12.78M). Against the confirmed reading of September 29, 11:58 BRT, Flávio Bolsonaro rises 2.70pp and Lula falls 2.00pp, and the gap goes from 20.30pp to 25.00pp. Across the points recorded during the day, Flávio Bolsonaro's price ranged from 58.80% to 62.50% and Lula's from 37.50% to 40.50%. Total accumulated volume in the presidential book adds up to USD 157.93M across 19 contracts.

The 62.50% of the day's last point stands above the previous top of the series recorded since April 14, 61.70% on September 21. Lula stands 3.00pp from the floor of the series, 34.50% on April 25. The Renan Santos contract is at 0.40% (USD 14.93M) and remains the one with the largest accumulated volume in the presidential book.

In the third place book, Renan Santos is at 52.00% (USD 0.49M) and Augusto Cury at 33.20% (USD 0.32M), and Ronaldo Caiado at 13.00% (USD 0.19M). In the second place one, Flávio Bolsonaro is at 71.50% (USD 1.38M) and Lula at 29.50% (USD 1.17M).

The Supreme Court impeachment contract stays at 2.80% (USD 0.09M). In the 2026 inflation one, the 5.00% to 5.49% band leads with 44.90% (USD 0.02M). The prices in this section are the last recorded points of each book on September 30.

2. What the polling firms registered

Futura with 100% Cidades, with 2,000 interviews by telephone and a margin of 2.2 points, puts Flávio Bolsonaro at 42.2% and Lula at 39.4% in the first round, with Ronaldo Caiado at 4%, and Flávio Bolsonaro at 49% to 43.5% in the second, the only distance of the day outside the margin. In the same poll Lula also loses to Ronaldo Caiado, 42.4% to 45.6%, and to Augusto Cury, 42% to 45.1%.

Ideia for Canal Meio, with 2,000 interviews from September 25 to 28, puts Lula at 39.4% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 38.4% in the first round, with Augusto Cury at 6.7%, and 48.5% to 48% for Lula in the second. Indexa for Broadcast, with 2,000 interviews from September 27 to 29, puts Lula at 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 34% in the first round and 43% to 42% in the second, and 46% approval of the government against 51% disapproval.

On the night of September 30 Veritá released the consolidation of 27 state polls, with 40.5 thousand interviews from September 20 to 25, with Flávio Bolsonaro at 45.14% and Lula at 44.65% of valid votes. The measure is of valid votes, and each state has its own registration with the TSE.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between October 1 and October 7, with national scope and a sample of 1,000 or more. Registered is not published: firms can delay or cancel.

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. These are the 13 national polls in the window, eight of them on October 3, the eve of the first round, and 144 registrations from the same period were left out by scope or by sample. Caveat: the national label on the Real Time, Datavero, Veritá and PoderData polls comes from the sampling plan, and it will be checked at release.

3. What the press covered

On the night of September 30, the full TSE upheld the removal of the posts that attributed to Flávio Bolsonaro a plan to strip Our Lady of Aparecida of the title of patron saint and cleared the post by comedian Antonio Tabet and the cases of reasonable doubt, after André Mendonça adjusted his vote, as also reported by G1. The session was agreed between Edson Fachin and Kassio Nunes Marques, and Fachin asked that the crisis be resolved first at the TSE.

In the campaign, Lula used his TV airtime to talk about betting sites and Our Lady, while Flávio Bolsonaro targeted voters of Ronaldo Caiado and Augusto Cury. Allies expect that Lula will skip the TV Globo debate of October 1, with no decision announced by the end of the day.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

The gap in the winner contract closed the day at 25.00pp. This is the last recorded point of September 30, above the 20.30pp of the previous day's confirmed reading.

The national polls of the day disagree with each other. Futura puts Flávio Bolsonaro ahead in both rounds, and Ideia and Indexa put Lula ahead in the first and show a statistical tie in the second.

The Our Lady case was ruled on by the full TSE. The court upheld the removal of the false posts about Flávio Bolsonaro and cleared Tabet's post.

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Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• Gazeta do Povo · Meio/Ideia divulga nova pesquisa para presidente; veja os números
• Gazeta do Povo · Mendonça ajusta voto no TSE para liberar post de Tabet sobre Nossa Senhora Aparecida
• G1 · Após Mendonça mudar voto, TSE decide liberar post de humorista sobre Nossa Senhora Aparecida
• G1 · Fachin pediu a Nunes Marques para resolver crise do caso Nossa Senhora primeiro no TSE
• Folha de S.Paulo · Lula usa TV para falar de bets e Nossa Senhora, enquanto Flávio mira eleitores de Caiado e Cury
• Folha de S.Paulo · Lula busca evitar desgaste e deve faltar a debate da Globo, adiando embate com Flávio Bolsonaro

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

• Rádio Itatiaia · Futura/100% Cidades: Flávio tem 42,2% em 1º turno; Lula, 39,4%
• Exame · Pesquisa Futura: Flávio Bolsonaro tem 49% e Lula, 43,5%, no 2º turno
• Poder360 · Lula e Flávio têm empate técnico no 2º turno, diz Meio/Ideia
• Tribuna do Paraná · Indexa: Lula lidera 1º turno e empata com Flávio no 2º turno
• CNN Brasil · Indexa/Broadcast: 51% desaprovam governo de Lula; aprovação é de 46%
• Revista Oeste · Veritá: Flávio aparece numericamente à frente de Lula no 1º turno

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (last recorded point of each book on Sep 30, AFOS series), TSE registry (official electoral polls).