October 1, 2026

1. Prediction market

In the Polymarket winner contract, confirmed reading of October 1, 19:29 BRT, Flávio Bolsonaro stands at 61.05% (USD 12.79M) and Lula at 37.50% (USD 13.00M). Against the confirmed reading of September 29, 11:58 BRT, Flávio Bolsonaro rises 1.25pp and Lula falls 2.00pp, and the gap goes from 20.30pp to 23.55pp, the fifth widening in a row between confirmed readings. The pair sum fell from 99.30 to 98.55, and the normalized move is 1.73pp to each side. Total accumulated volume in the presidential book adds up to USD 159.29M across 19 contracts.

In the points recorded on October 1, Flávio Bolsonaro's price ranged from 61.05% to 63.30%, and that 63.30%, at 04:00 BRT, is the top of the series recorded since April 14. Lula's ranged from 36.50% to 37.50%, 2.00pp from the floor of the series, 34.50% on April 25. The Renan Santos contract stands at 0.25% (USD 15.12M) and remains the one with the largest accumulated volume in the presidential book.

In the second place book, Flávio Bolsonaro falls 5.00pp, to 71.50% (USD 1.42M), and Lula rises 4.65pp, to 28.25% (USD 1.20M): the market pays less for the chance of Flávio Bolsonaro finishing the first round in second place. In the third place one, Renan Santos falls 3.00pp, to 48.50% (USD 0.52M), Augusto Cury rises 0.85pp, to 36.70% (USD 0.34M), and the distance between the two narrows from 15.65pp to 11.80pp. Ronaldo Caiado rises 2.50pp, to 16.00%.

The Supreme Court impeachment contract falls 0.30pp, to 2.60% (USD 0.09M). In the 2026 inflation one, the 5.00% to 5.49% band leads with 49.65% (USD 0.02M), in the 12:07 BRT reading.

2. What the polling firms registered

Datafolha, with 2,506 interviews from September 28 to October 1 and a margin of 2 points, puts Lula at 42% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 38% in the first round, with Augusto Cury at 4%, and Lula at 48% to 45% in the second. Lula also wins the other four pairings tested: 48% to 42% against Ronaldo Caiado, 47% to 42% against Augusto Cury, 49% to 40% against Romeu Zema and 48% to 39% against Renan Santos.

Real Time Big Data, with 2,000 interviews by telephone from September 26 to 30, puts Lula at 43% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 39% in the first round, with Renan Santos at 4%, and Flávio Bolsonaro at 46% to 45% in the second. The same poll measures 52% disapproval of the government against 46% approval. Adding the three of September 30, Futura, Ideia and Indexa, Lula leads the first round in four of the five and the second round in three.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between October 2 and 8, with national scope and a sample of 1,000 or more. Registered is not published: firms can delay or cancel.

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. These are the 11 national polls in the window, eight of them on October 3, the eve of the first round, and 122 registrations from the same period were left out by scope or by sample. Caveat: the national label on the Datavero, Veritá and PoderData polls comes from the sampling plan, and it will be checked at release.

3. What the press covered

Lula announced he will not attend tonight's TV Globo debate, and TSE justice Estela Aranha issued an injunction barring the broadcaster from showing his empty podium and from directing questions to the absent candidate, sending the case to the full court. Kassio Nunes Marques denied Renan Santos's request to join the debate, and Cármen Lúcia rejected his lawsuit at the Supreme Court.

At the Supreme Court, Flávio Dino declared the case moot and closed the lawsuit over the posts about Our Lady, after the TSE ruling of the previous day, and Edson Fachin denied Flávio Bolsonaro's request to remove Dino from the cases related to him, to Lula and to the elections, as also reported by GZH.

In the Master case, the Federal Police scheduled the testimonies of André Esteves, Gabriel Galípolo and Roberto Campos Neto for next week. Lula signed a legal opinion that guarantees victims of domestic violence up to six months of paid leave through the INSS (National Social Security Institute).

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

The gap in the winner contract widened for the fifth confirmed reading in a row. It went to 23.55pp, and in the points recorded during the day Flávio Bolsonaro touched 63.30%, the top of the series.

The two national polls of the day agree on the first round and split on the second. Lula is 4 points ahead in the first in both, and in the second Datafolha and Real Time point to different leaders.

The TV Globo debate goes on air without Lula. The TSE banned the broadcaster from showing his empty podium.

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Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• Metrópoles · Datafolha: Lula marca 48% e Flávio Bolsonaro tem 45% no 2º turno
• Gazeta do Povo · TSE proíbe exibição de cadeira vazia de Lula no debate da TV Globo
• Valor · Nunes Marques nega pedido para Renan Santos participar de debate e Cármen rejeita ação no STF
• Gazeta do Povo · Dino declara perda de objeto e encerra ação sobre remoção de post de Tabet
• CartaCapital · PF marca depoimentos de Galípolo e Campos Neto sobre o Master
• Gazeta do Povo · Lula garante benefício automático do INSS de até 6 meses a vítimas de agressão

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

• CNN Brasil · Datafolha: Lula tem 42% no 1º turno; Flávio, 38%
• Exame · Real Time: a 3 dias do 1º turno, Lula chega a 43% e Flávio Bolsonaro marca 39%
• Exame · Pesquisa Real time: Flávio Bolsonaro tem 46% e Lula, 45%, no 2º turno
• GP1 · Desaprovação do Governo Lula chega a 52%, aponta Real Time Big Data
• JOTA Jornalismo · Fachin nega pedido para afastar Dino de ações ligadas a Flávio e Lula nas eleições
• GZH · Fachin rejeita pedido de Flávio Bolsonaro para afastar Dino de processos que envolvem senador, Lula e eleições 2026

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Oct 1, 19:29 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).