October 2, 2026

1. Prediction market

In the Polymarket winner contract, confirmed reading of October 2, 16:07 BRT, Lula rises 5.00pp, to 42.50% (USD 13.76M), and Flávio Bolsonaro falls 3.30pp, to 57.75% (USD 13.49M), against the one of October 1, 19:29 BRT. The gap goes from 23.55pp to 15.25pp, after five widenings in a row between confirmed readings that had taken it from 12.05pp on September 25 to 23.55pp. The pair sum rose from 98.55 to 100.25, and the normalized move is 4.34pp to each side. Total accumulated volume in the presidential book adds up to USD 161.84M across 19 contracts.

Lula stands 25.00pp from the top of the series recorded since April 14, 67.50% on August 16, and 8.00pp from the floor, 34.50% on April 25. Flávio Bolsonaro stands 5.55pp from the recorded top of the series, 63.30% on October 1. The Renan Santos contract stands at 0.15% (USD 15.80M) and remains the one with the largest accumulated volume in the presidential book.

In the third place book, Renan Santos rises 14.00pp, to 62.50% (USD 0.62M), and Augusto Cury falls 9.40pp, to 27.30% (USD 0.35M), and the distance between the two goes from 11.80pp to 35.20pp. Ronaldo Caiado falls 4.50pp, to 11.50% (USD 0.22M). In the second place one, Flávio Bolsonaro rises 5.00pp, to 76.50% (USD 1.51M), and Lula falls 4.55pp, to 23.70% (USD 1.28M): the market pays more for the chance of Flávio Bolsonaro finishing the first round in second place.

The Supreme Court impeachment contract stands at 2.70% (USD 0.09M). In the 2026 inflation one, the 5.00% to 5.49% band leads with 49.35% (USD 0.02M), in the 16:46 BRT reading.

2. What the polling firms registered

Vox Brasil, with 2,100 face-to-face interviews from September 29 to October 1 and a margin of 2.15 points, puts Flávio Bolsonaro at 41.2% and Lula at 40.4% in the first round, with Ronaldo Caiado at 3.3%, after Lula had been ahead 41.1% to 37.8% in the firm's September 29 round. In the second round, Flávio Bolsonaro has 48.2% to 45.2%, and Lula beats Caiado 46.3% to 42.1% and Augusto Cury 46.8% to 33.1%.

Adding the six national polls from September 30 to October 2, Lula leads the first round in four, and in the second round they split three to each side.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between October 3 and 9, with national scope and a sample of 1,000 or more. Registered is not published: firms can delay or cancel.

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. These are the 8 national polls in the window, all of them on October 3, the eve of the first round, and 72 registrations from the same period were left out by scope or by sample. Caveat: the national label on the Veritá and PoderData polls comes from the sampling plan, and it will be checked at release.

3. What the press covered

TV Globo cancelled the presidential debate on the night of October 1, and attributed the cancellation to the court rulings of the previous hours, which in the broadcaster's view created legal uncertainty, as also reported by CartaCapital. At around 18h30 TSE justice Estela Aranha issued an injunction barring the display of Lula's empty podium and questions directed at him, and Supreme Court justice Gilmar Mendes ordered the inclusion of Renan Santos. Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro had already announced they would not attend. Gazeta do Povo called the TSE ruling that made the debate unviable unprecedented.

At the Supreme Court, Edson Fachin created a rule to prevent requests from being directed to chosen justices, sent an official letter to the director-general of the Federal Police defending the investigation of the facts involving justices in the Master case, and scheduled a meeting with him. Lula pressed Fachin and said the Supreme Court cannot keep "fighting among themselves". Luiz Fux gave the AGU (Office of the Attorney General) 72 hours to respond on the provisional measure that bans betting sites.

According to O Globo, the Federal Police is investigating the R$ 3.1 million BRB loan to Flávio Bolsonaro for the purchase of a R$ 6 million mansion in Brasília, within the inquiry into Daniel Vorcaro and Master's relationship with the bank; the senator says the transaction was legal.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

The gap in the winner contract narrowed after five widenings in a row. It went from 23.55pp to 15.25pp, with Lula rising 5.00pp.

The only national poll of the day moved in the opposite direction to the price. Vox Brasil put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead in both rounds.

The first round arrives without the TV Globo debate. The broadcaster cancelled it on the night of October 1, after TSE and Supreme Court rulings changed the rules, including the ban on questions to Lula, and eight national polls are registered for October 3.

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Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• Gazeta do Povo · Decisão inédita do TSE que inviabilizou debate foi tomada por ministra aliada do PT
• Folha de S.Paulo · Leia íntegra da determinação de Gilmar Mendes para que TV Globo inclua Renan Santos no debate
• Gazeta do Povo · Fachin cria filtro para evitar direcionamento de pedidos avulsos a ministros
• Poder360 · Fachin marca reunião com Andrei para tratar do caso Master
• Gazeta do Povo · Fux dá 72h para governo se pronunciar sobre MP de Lula que proíbe bets no Brasil
• G1 · PF investiga empréstimo do BRB a Flávio Bolsonaro para compra de uma mansão avaliada em R$ 6 milhões

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

• G1 · TSE proíbe cadeira vazia de Lula; Flávio diz que não vai ao debate da Globo; STF decide incluir Renan
• Metrópoles · Vox Brasil: Flávio Bolsonaro tem 41,2% e Lula marca 40,4% no 1º turno
• BNews SP · Vox Brasil: Lula e Flávio aparecem tecnicamente empatados no 2º turno
• BBC · Debate na Globo cancelado: as razões da emissora, as reações dos candidatos e as críticas de entidades de imprensa
• CartaCapital · Sem Lula e Flávio Bolsonaro, Globo cancela debate e critica decisões da Justiça
• Valor Econômico · Lula cobra Fachin e diz que STF não pode ficar se 'digladiando'

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Oct 2, 16:07 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).