1. Prediction market

In the Polymarket winner contract, confirmed reading of October 3, 20:23 BRT, Flávio Bolsonaro rises 6.80pp, to 64.55% (USD 14.08M), and Lula falls 7.00pp, to 35.50% (USD 14.46M), against the one of October 2, 16:07 BRT. The gap goes from 15.25pp to 29.05pp. The pair sum went from 100.25 to 100.05, and the normalized move is 6.91pp to each side. Total accumulated volume in the presidential book adds up to USD 163.83M across 19 contracts.

Flávio Bolsonaro stands 1.25pp above the recorded top of the series since April 14, 63.30% on October 1. Lula stands 1.00pp from the floor of the series, 34.50% on April 25, and 32.00pp from the top, 67.50% on August 16. The Renan Santos contract stands at 0.15% (USD 16.14M) and remains the one with the largest accumulated volume in the presidential book.

In the second place book, Flávio Bolsonaro falls 18.00pp, to 58.50% (USD 1.75M), and Lula rises 17.30pp, to 41.00% (USD 1.46M): the market pays less for the chance of Flávio Bolsonaro finishing the first round in second place. In the third place one, Renan Santos falls 10.00pp, to 52.50% (USD 0.68M), Ronaldo Caiado rises 13.50pp, to 25.00% (USD 0.23M), and Augusto Cury falls 3.80pp, to 23.50% (USD 0.38M). Caiado overtakes Cury in that book.

The Supreme Court impeachment contract stands at 2.60% (USD 0.09M), 0.50pp from the floor of the series.

2. What the polling firms registered

Seven national polls came out on October 3. In the first round, Lula is ahead in four: Datafolha, with 4,006 interviews on October 3, puts him at 42% to 40%, and 47% to 46% in the second round; Quaest, with 3,702 face-to-face interviews on October 2 and 3, puts him at 40% to 38%, and Flávio Bolsonaro at 44% to 42% in the second round; PoderData, with 4,000 interviews, puts him at 42% to 41% and a tie at 46% in the second round; and CNT/MDA, with 2,007 interviews, puts him at 43.1% to 38%, and 47.3% to 43.1% in the second round.

Flávio Bolsonaro is ahead in the other three. Palver, with 5,000 participants recruited online from September 30 to October 3, puts him at 47% to 43%, and 49% to 44% in the second round, with Renan Santos at 7%. Gerp, by phone with 2,400 voters, puts him at 43% to 41% in the first round and 49% to 44% in the second. Futura puts him at 42.5% to 40.5%, and 48% to 45.1% in the second round.

In all seven, Flávio Bolsonaro's first round number is higher than in the same firm's previous round: in Datafolha it went from 38% on October 1 to 40%, and in Quaest, from 34% on September 28 to 38%. In Quaest, government approval went from 46% to 44%, with 49% disapproval. AtlasIntel and Veritá, with national polls registered for October 3, had released only state numbers as of the time of this reading.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between October 4 and 10, with national scope and a sample of 1,000 or more. Registered is not published: firms can delay or cancel.

Date	Firm	Sample	Scope	TSE registration	Conf.
08/Oct	PoderData	3,000	national	BR-08134/2026	0.7
08/Oct	Datafolha	2,520	national	BR-02949/2026	0.9

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. These are the 2 national polls in the window, the first registered after the first round, and 6 registrations from the same period were left out by scope or by sample.

3. What the press covered

On the last day of campaigning, Lula held a rally on Avenida Paulista and said that "Paulista does not belong to the right, it belongs to the Brazilian people". Flávio Bolsonaro held two motorcades in Rio, and at one of them, according to Valor, declared the race over against Lula; earlier, he stated that the Lula government had captured the Supreme Court, the Federal Police and Congress. Agência Brasil summarized the candidates' day.

At the TSE, justice Floriano de Azevedo Marques rejected on October 3 the registration of Deltan Dallagnol (Novo) for the Senate in Paraná and ordered the votes cast for him to be annulled. The ruling is a single-justice decision and still goes to the full court, as also reported by CartaCapital. The court's president, Nunes Marques, said the election is not under threat of foreign interference or of organized crime.

Lula's coalition asked the TSE on October 2 to include the suspension of United States consular services in Brazil as a new fact in the case examining alleged foreign interference, brought against Flávio Bolsonaro, Eduardo Bolsonaro and running mate Alfredo Gaspar.

4. Divergences of the day

Market x poll: four of the seven national polls of October 3 put Lula ahead in the first round, and between the confirmed readings of October 2 and 3 the winner contract moved 7.00pp toward Flávio Bolsonaro, taking the gap to 29.05pp.

Firm x firm: Datafolha, with fieldwork on October 3, puts Lula 2 points ahead in the first round, and Palver, with fieldwork up to the same day, puts Flávio Bolsonaro 4 points ahead.

Book x book: in the second place book the price of Flávio Bolsonaro fell 18.00pp, to 58.50%, and that of Lula rose to 41.00%, on a day when four of the seven national polls put Lula first in the first round.

In summary

The gap in the winner contract almost doubled on the eve. It went from 15.25pp to 29.05pp, and the price of Flávio Bolsonaro ended above the recorded top of the series.

The seven national polls of the day were split. Lula leads the first round in four, Flávio Bolsonaro the second round in four, and PoderData shows a tie at 46%.

The first round is on October 4. The next national polls registered with the TSE, from Datafolha and PoderData, are scheduled for October 8.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Oct 3, 20:23 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).

October 3, 2026