October 4, 2026

1. Prediction market

In the Polymarket winner contract, confirmed reading of October 4, 21:43 BRT, Flávio Bolsonaro stands at 84.25% (USD 16.11M) and Lula at 15.50% (USD 16.52M). Against the confirmed reading of October 3, 20:23 BRT, Flávio Bolsonaro rises 19.70pp and Lula falls 20.00pp, and the move normalized by the pair sum is 19.94pp to each side. The gap goes from 29.05pp to 68.75pp. Total accumulated volume in the presidential book adds up to USD 170.31M across 19 contracts, with USD 6.48M of new money since October 3.

Flávio Bolsonaro stands 20.95pp above the recorded top of the series since April 14, 63.30% on October 1, and Lula 19.00pp below the recorded floor, 34.50% on April 25. The Renan Santos contract stands at 0.05% and remains the one with the largest accumulated volume in the presidential book, USD 17.10M.

In the same reading, the second place book paid 99.85% (USD 2.28M) for Lula finishing the first round in second, and the third place one, 99.85% (USD 0.55M) for Augusto Cury in third, the same order as the TSE result. In the confirmed reading of 18:59, the Senate book paid 96.50% (USD 0.27M) for the PL as the party with the most seats. The Supreme Court impeachment contract rises 0.80pp, to 3.40% (USD 0.09M).

2. What the polling firms registered

In the TSE tally of 21:44 BRT, with 99.59% of polling sections and turnout of 78.93% in them, Flávio Bolsonaro had 47.12% of valid votes, Lula 45.06%, Augusto Cury 2.89%, Renan Santos 2.25%, Ronaldo Caiado 2.19% and Romeu Zema 0.27%. The court marked the result as mathematically defined at 20:58, and the second round is on October 25.

In the nine national polls of the eve, Lula was ahead in the first round in five, and Flávio Bolsonaro in four: Palver, Futura and the two Gerp rounds. Their range went from 5.7 points for Lula, in valid votes in CNT/MDA, to 4 points for Flávio Bolsonaro, in Palver, and the final margin fell within it. In the partial counts of the night that margin reached 8.57 points at 18:44, with 47.26% of polling sections, and kept falling until the result.

Governors

Source: TSE tally, file per state, percentages of valid votes.

Twenty governors were elected in the first round, and seven states go to the second. Raquel Lyra, reelected in Pernambuco, is the only woman elected governor in the first round, and four are in the second round: Mailza Assis, Professora Maria do Carmo, Celina Leão and Professora Dorinha. Tarcísio de Freitas defeated Fernando Haddad and was reelected in São Paulo.

Senate, the two seats per state

Source: TSE tally, file per state, percentages of valid votes.

The two most voted in each state add up to 19 seats for the PL, 7 for the MDB and 6 for the PT. In states below 100% of polling sections the list is the one from the 21:44 tally, and in Pará the second seat was separated by 0.05 point, in Rio Grande do Norte by 0.27 point and in Amazonas and Sergipe by less than 1 point. In Paraná, the TSE president, Nunes Marques, suspended on the morning of October 4 the ruling that had rejected the candidacy of Deltan Dallagnol, as also reported by Gazeta do Povo, and Deltan Dallagnol was elected alongside Filipe Barros. Renan Calheiros lost his seat in Alagoas after four terms.

3. What the press covered

Flávio Bolsonaro gave a speech after advancing to the second round ahead of Lula, and Tarcísio de Freitas pledged São Paulo's effort to elect him. According to Folha de S.Paulo, his campaign is seeking the support of top vote getters and growth in Minas Gerais. Lula gave a speech after the first round result, according to G1.

Abroad, the president of Argentina, Javier Milei, celebrated Flávio Bolsonaro's performance, and in the ballot boxes outside the country Lula led in 44 countries and Flávio Bolsonaro in 13.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

There will be a second round between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula, on October 25. Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead, 47.12% to 45.06% of valid votes, and the winner contract went to 84.25%.

The polls of the eve split on the order, and the final margin fit within their range. Four of the nine put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead.

The PL leaves the first round with 19 of the 54 Senate seats and five governors elected. Twenty states decided their government, and seven go to the second round.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• G1 · Nunes Marques suspende decisão que indeferiu candidatura de Deltan ao Senado pelo Paraná
• Gazeta do Povo · Deltan volta a ficar elegível com nova decisão do TSE
• Metrópoles · Após 22 anos, Renan Calheiros perde eleição para o Senado em Alagoas
• Folha de S.Paulo · Tarcísio promete empenho de SP para eleger Flávio Bolsonaro, que entra em chamada de vídeo
• G1 · Lula discursa após o primeiro turno
• Metrópoles · Milei comemora desempenho de Flávio Bolsonaro no 1º turno das eleições

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

• Agência Brasil · Eleições: votação para candidatos do segundo turno será no dia 25
• Folha de S.Paulo · Raquel Lyra (PSD) derrota João Campos (PSB) e é reeleita em Pernambuco, projeta Datafolha
• Brasil de Fato · Tarcísio de Freitas vence em primeiro turno e é reeleito governador de São Paulo, projeta Datafolha
• O Globo · Flávio Bolsonaro faz discurso após passar para o segundo turno à frente de Lula
• Folha de S.Paulo · Flávio Bolsonaro mira apoio de campeões de votos e crescimento em MG no segundo turno
• Poder360 · Lula lidera em 44 países e Flávio em 13; siga os resultados

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Oct 4, 21:43 BRT), official TSE tally (president, 21:44 BRT), TSE state tally (governor and senator, file per state, 21:45 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).