1. Prediction market

The winner contract became a pair. In the confirmed reading of October 5 at 17:31 BRT, the winner contract pays 83.10% for Flávio Bolsonaro (USD 16.98M) and 16.50% for Lula (USD 17.91M). Against the confirmed reading of October 4 at 21:43 BRT, published on the night of the count, Flávio Bolsonaro falls 1.15pp and Lula rises 1.00pp, with 1.03pp to each side in the normalized move, and the gap goes from 68.75pp to 66.60pp. Total accumulated volume in the presidential book adds up to USD 173.39M in the 18:17 BRT reading. After the first round, Polymarket closed the contracts of the other names, resolved at zero, and counting the closed ones the largest volume in the book is now Lula's, ahead of Renan Santos's, which closed with USD 17.12M.

Three books resolved. The first round second place book resolved to Lula, the third place one to Augusto Cury and the party with the most Senate seats one to the PL, with 19 of the 54 seats. On the eve, at 23:00 UTC on October 3, the second place book paid 57.50% for Flávio Bolsonaro finishing second, and the third place one paid 47.50% for Renan Santos and 23.70% for Augusto Cury.

Supreme Court and inflation. The Supreme Court justice impeachment by 2027 contract stands at 2.15% (USD 0.09M), 1.25pp below the reading of the night of the count. In the 2026 inflation one, the 5.00% to 5.49% band leads with 49.80% (USD 24 thousand), in the 18:18 BRT reading.

2. What the polling firms registered

The ballot box and the eve. The TSE tally, generated at 12:51 on October 5, gives Flávio Bolsonaro 47.03%, Lula 45.16%, Augusto Cury 2.89%, Renan Santos 2.24% and Ronaldo Caiado 2.18% of valid votes, with abstention of 21.08% (TSE). On the eve, five of the nine national polls put Lula ahead in the first round, and the result fell within their range, which went from 5.1 points for Lula to 4 points for Flávio Bolsonaro. Gazeta do Povo reports that only one of six polling firms showed him numerically ahead, and Congresso em Foco compares which ones came close.

The second round on the eve. In the nine national polls of October 3, Lula led the second round in Datafolha (47% to 46%), in CNT/MDA and in AtlasIntel (47.6% to 47.4%), was tied in PoderData and trailed in Quaest, in Palver (44% to 49%), in Futura and in Gerp. The poll side of the dashboard graph is now this pair, in Palver, the largest sample of the day. The first national polls after the first round are registered for October 8 to 10 (CartaCapital).

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between October 8 and 10. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication is confirmed, because firms may delay or cancel release. Filters applied: national scope and a sample of 1,000 or more. Each registration linked to the TSE public consultation.

Date	Firm	Sample	Scope	TSE registration	Conf.
08/Oct	PoderData	3,000	national	BR-08134/2026	0.7
08/Oct	Datafolha	2,520	national	BR-02949/2026	0.9
09/Oct	AtlasIntel	5,000	national	BR-03663/2026	0.9
09/Oct	Vox Brasil	2,100	national	BR-09623/2026	0.7
10/Oct	Ipespe	1,500	national	BR-00933/2026	0.6

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists the 5 national polls in the window; 9 registrations from the same period were left out by scope or by sample. The status is registered, not published.

3. What the press covered

The eliminated candidates. Renan Santos said on the night of October 4 that he will not back anyone in the second round and released the Missão activists, which Agência Brasil also reports. The PSD decided to remain neutral, but Ronaldo Caiado promised Flávio Bolsonaro he would announce his support on October 6, in Goiânia, a meeting that O Globo also reports. Augusto Cury, according to Agência Brasil, speaks of keeping silent. The BBC discusses where the 7.81% of valid votes that went to the eliminated candidates go, a topic also covered by CNN Brasil and InfoMoney, and G1 summarizes how these voters vote in Quaest.

The parties. União Brasil and the PP signal support for Flávio Bolsonaro, with a decision in the coming days, according to Folha de S.Paulo and O Globo. Folha reports that Novo will declare support for Flávio Bolsonaro; the report comes from a single source.

The Supreme Court and the cases. O Globo reports that the PL super caucus in the Senate is viewed with concern at the STF, and Folha counts the elected senators in favor of impeachment below the 54 votes required. In the Master case, Estadão counted 13 politicians linked to Daniel Vorcaro elected, and O Globo reports that the targets of the INSS investigation failed at the ballot box. Folha and Valor report on October 5 that the Federal Police postponed the testimony of André Esteves as a witness in the inquiry into Master, with no new date.

4. Divergences of the day

Market × ballot box: the winner contract pays 83.10% for Flávio Bolsonaro, and the first round count left him 1.87 points ahead. Price is not vote intention: the first measures the probability of winning on October 25, the second is the share of votes of October 4.

Poll × ballot box: five of the nine national polls of the eve put Lula ahead in the first round, and the count gave Flávio Bolsonaro the lead. The range of the nine contained the result; most of them did not.

Side books × ballot box: on the eve, the second place book paid more for Flávio Bolsonaro in second and the third place one more for Renan Santos. The count gave Lula in second and Augusto Cury in third.

In summary

The winner contract became a pair, with Flávio Bolsonaro at 83.10% and Lula at 16.50%, and the contracts of the eliminated candidates closed at zero.
On the first day, Renan Santos backs no one, the PSD stays neutral and Ronaldo Caiado promises to announce support for Flávio Bolsonaro on October 6.
The first national polls of the second round come out from October 8 to 10, and the dashboard now measures the Lula × Flávio Bolsonaro pair.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (quotes via the AFOS proxy, confirmed reading of Oct 5, 17:31 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls), TSE results (first round tally).

October 5, 2026