1. Prediction market

The gap opens again. In the confirmed reading of October 6 at 15:05 BRT, the winner contract pays 84.30% for Flávio Bolsonaro (USD 17.47M) and 15.50% for Lula (USD 18.45M). Against the reading of October 5 at 17:31 BRT, Flávio Bolsonaro rises 1.20pp and Lula falls 1.00pp, with 1.04pp to each side in the normalized figure, and the gap goes from 66.60pp to 68.80pp. The total accumulated volume in the presidential book adds up to USD 174.45M in the 16:55 BRT reading, and counting the contracts closed after the first round, the largest volume in the book is still that of Lula.

Supreme Court and inflation. The contract on the impeachment of an STF justice before 2027 stands at 2.65% (USD 0.09M), 0.50pp above October 5. In the 2026 inflation one, the 5.00% to 5.49% range leads with 49.10% (USD 24 thousand), in the 16:55 BRT reading.

2. What the polling firms registered

The first ones of the second round. No national poll came out on October 6. Datafolha and PoderData release on October 8 the first polls of the Lula × Flávio Bolsonaro pair after the first round (BPMoney), followed by AtlasIntel, Vox Brasil, Ipespe and DataTrends (Money Times). The poll side of the panel graph remains with the Palver poll of October 3, which had Flávio Bolsonaro at 49% to 44%, until the first of them comes out. Gazeta do Povo discusses who inherits the votes of Augusto Cury, Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between October 8 and 11, with national scope and a sample of 1,000 or more. Registered is not published: firms can delay or cancel. Each registration linked to the TSE public lookup.

Date	Firm	Sample	Scope	TSE registration	Conf.
08/Oct	PoderData	3,000	national	BR-08134/2026	0.7
08/Oct	Datafolha	2,520	national	BR-02949/2026	0.9
09/Oct	AtlasIntel	5,000	national	BR-03663/2026	0.9
09/Oct	Vox Brasil	2,100	national	BR-09623/2026	0.7
10/Oct	Ipespe	1,500	national	BR-00933/2026	0.6
11/Oct	DataTrends	2,000	national	BR-03576/2026	0.7

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists the 6 national polls in the window; 7 registrations from the same period were left out by scope or by sample. The status is registered and not published.

3. What the press covered

The endorsements. Ronaldo Caiado declared his support for Flávio Bolsonaro at a rally in Goiânia on October 6, which VEJA also reports, even with the PSD neutral in the second round. On the night of October 5, Romeu Zema declared his vote for Flávio Bolsonaro, and former president Michel Temer announced his support for him. Folha de S.Paulo reports that the PP is expected to announce its support for Flávio Bolsonaro and that Tarcísio de Freitas is arranging that of the Republicanos, with Podemos expected to announce its backing on October 8.

The debates. Flávio Bolsonaro said he will take part in debates with Lula in the second round, and Folha de S.Paulo reports that Lula also signaled he will attend. The Band/Estadão debate was scheduled for October 18, and according to UOL Record scheduled one for October 11.

The Supreme Court. Edson Fachin received the coordinator of Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign, Rogério Marinho, and the leader of the Lula government in the Senate. Marinho said there will be no revenge against the court, but that the Senate will not stand aside. Alexandre de Moraes sent to the PGR the new request from Flávio Bolsonaro to visit his father, Jair Bolsonaro, and Folha de S.Paulo reports that Lula raised his tone against the STF after the first round.

4. Divergences of the day

Market x ballot box: the winner contract pays 84.30% for Flávio Bolsonaro and 15.50% for Lula, more than five times as much for one as for the other, and the first round ballot box separated them by 1.87 points. Price is not voting intention: the first measures the probability of winning on October 25, the second the share of votes of October 4.

Market x poll: the contract moves before there is any national poll of the second round after the ballot box. The last measurement of the pair is the one from the eve, in which the firms were split between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro; the first new ones come out on October 8.

In summary

Caiado, Zema and Temer declare their support for Flávio Bolsonaro, and PP, Republicanos and Podemos move closer to him according to Folha de S.Paulo.
The winner contract goes to 84.30% for Flávio Bolsonaro, and the gap opens to 68.80pp.
Both say they will take part in debates, with the first one on October 18, and the first national polls of the second round come out on October 8.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (quotes via the AFOS proxy, confirmed reading of Oct 6, 15:05 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls), TSE results (1st round tally).

October 6, 2026