1. Prediction market

The gap opens again. In the confirmed reading of October 7 at 17:35 BRT, the winner contract pays 84.95% for Flávio Bolsonaro (USD 17.91M) and 14.50% for Lula (USD 18.76M). Against the reading of October 6 at 15:05 BRT, Flávio Bolsonaro rises 0.65pp and Lula falls 1.00pp, with 0.95pp to each side in the normalized figure, because the sum of the pair went from 99.80 to 99.45. The gap goes from 68.80pp to 70.45pp. The total accumulated volume in the presidential book adds up to USD 175.13M in the 18:06 BRT reading, and counting the contracts closed after the first round, the largest volume in the book is still that of Lula.

Supreme Court and inflation. The contract on the impeachment of an STF justice before 2027 stands at 2.75% (USD 0.10M) in the reading of 17:35 BRT, against 2.65% on October 6. It is the only contract on the panel that goes live without the double reading AFOS applies to the others: the book is thin and, in the readings recorded during the day, the price ranged from 2.75% to 5.70%, with about USD 1.1 thousand of new money. In the 2026 inflation one, the 5.00% to 5.49% range leads with 52.30% (USD 25 thousand), in the 18:08 BRT reading.

2. What the polling firms registered

Eve of the first national poll. No national poll of the second round came out on October 7. Datafolha releases on October 8 the first measurement of the Lula × Flávio Bolsonaro pair after the ballot box, on the same day as PoderData, and AtlasIntel, Vox Brasil, Ipespe and DataTrends follow through October 11 (InfoMoney). The poll side of the panel graph remains with the Palver poll of October 3, which had Flávio Bolsonaro at 49% to 44%. Since October 5, a Veritá poll with 51.56% to 48.44% for Flávio Bolsonaro in valid votes in the second round has been circulating; its fieldwork ran from September 26 to October 2, before the ballot box, and AFOS does not use it as a measurement of the second round.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between October 8 and 14. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication, because firms can delay or cancel the release. Filters applied: national scope and a sample of 1,000 or more. Each registration linked to the TSE public lookup.

Date	Firm	Sample	Scope	TSE registration	Conf.
08/Oct	PoderData	3,000	national	BR-08134/2026	0.7
08/Oct	Datafolha	2,520	national	BR-02949/2026	0.9
09/Oct	AtlasIntel	5,000	national	BR-03663/2026	0.9
09/Oct	Vox Brasil	2,100	national	BR-09623/2026	0.7
10/Oct	Ipespe	1,500	national	BR-00933/2026	0.6
11/Oct	DataTrends	2,000	national	BR-03576/2026	0.7

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists the 6 national polls in the window; 14 registrations from the same period were left out by scope or by sample. The status is registered and not published.

3. What the press covered

The endorsements. Novo declared its support for Flávio Bolsonaro on October 7, after Romeu Zema, and ACM Neto announced his own on the same day. PP and União Brasil had announced their support on October 6. According to VEJA, Flávio Bolsonaro will receive the support of the Republicanos and is aiming for that of Podemos. The MDB is consulting its state directorates: the majority favors voting for him, according to Folha de S.Paulo, and the party is expected to remain neutral, according to O Globo. Solidariedade is not expected to support him, said Paulinho da Força. Michelle Bolsonaro was with Flávio Bolsonaro at the meeting of the PL caucus.

Lula. In a meeting with allies, Lula said this year's campaign was the least organized since 1989, which O Globo also reports. On social media, he called supporters to the streets and pressed Flávio Bolsonaro for a position on ending the 6x1 work schedule.

The debates. The broadcasters confirmed four dates: Record on October 11, a pool of 11 outlets on October 15, Band on October 18 and TV Globo on October 23. The attendance of the two candidates is not yet confirmed.

The TSE and the Supreme Court. In decisions released on October 7, the president of the TSE, Kassio Nunes Marques, kept online videos from Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign that associate Lula with Alexandre de Moraes and Lulinha with the so-called Careca do INSS, and denied the requests for removal and for a right of reply from Lula's campaign. He said that Jair Bolsonaro's criminal review will only be considered after the second round, in the STF plenary. Folha de S.Paulo reports that the centrão has begun to defend the impeachment of at least one Supreme Court justice. In the Master case, the Federal Police postponed the testimony of Roberto Campos Neto, scheduled for October 7, with no new date; Valor speaks of a cancellation.

4. Divergences of the day

Market x poll: for the third day, the winner contract moves without any national poll of the second round conducted after the ballot box. The last measurement of the pair, with fieldwork before October 4, had the firms split between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro; the first new ones come out on October 8.

Market x ballot box: the contract pays 84.95% for Flávio Bolsonaro and 14.50% for Lula, and the first round ballot box separated them by 1.87 points. Price is not voting intention: the first measures the probability of winning on October 25, the second the share of votes of October 4.

Endorsements × ballot: among the names eliminated in the first round, those who declared support for Flávio Bolsonaro, Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema, totaled 2.45% of valid votes. The two who back no one, Augusto Cury and Renan Santos, totaled 5.13%, more than double, and more than the 1.87 points that separated Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula. The string of declared endorsements does not reach most of the vote left without a candidate.

In summary

Novo and ACM Neto declare their support for Flávio Bolsonaro, the Republicanos is expected to formalize its own and the MDB consults its state directorates.
The winner contract goes to 84.95% for Flávio Bolsonaro, and the gap opens to 70.45pp.
Four debates have dates, from October 11 to 23, and Datafolha and PoderData release on October 8 the first national polls of the second round.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (quotes via the AFOS proxy, confirmed reading of Oct 7, 17:35 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls), TSE results (1st round tally).

October 7, 2026