1. Prediction market

The gap opens for the third straight day. In the confirmed reading of October 8 at 20:38 BRT, the winner contract pays 85.65% for Flávio Bolsonaro (USD 18.50M) and 13.50% for Lula (USD 21.00M). Against the reading of October 7 at 17:35 BRT, Flávio Bolsonaro rises 0.70pp and Lula falls 1.00pp, with 0.96pp to each side in the normalized figure, because the sum of the pair went from 99.45 to 99.15. The gap goes from 70.45pp to 72.15pp. The total accumulated volume in the presidential book adds up to USD 177.95M in the 20:50 BRT reading, and the largest volume in the book is still that of Lula.

Supreme Court and inflation. The contract on the impeachment of an STF justice before 2027 stands at 3.90% (USD 0.10M) in the confirmed reading of 20:38 BRT, 1.15pp above the 2.75% of October 7, which had gone live without the double reading. In the 2026 inflation one, the 5.00% to 5.49% range leads with 51.40% (USD 25 thousand), in the 20:50 BRT reading.

2. What the polling firms registered

The first ones of the second round. In Datafolha, with 2,520 interviews from October 6 to 8, Flávio Bolsonaro has 49% and Lula 45%, with 5% blank, null and none and 1% undecided; in valid votes, 52% to 48%. In the firm's round of October 3, conducted before the ballot box, Lula had 47% and Flávio Bolsonaro 46%. In PoderData/Aya, with 3,000 interviews from October 5 to 7, Flávio Bolsonaro has 53% and Lula 47% of valid votes, and the release does not include the total. In Datafolha, 46% reject Lula and 43% reject Flávio Bolsonaro, and PoderData/Aya measures the same numbers. The poll side of the panel graph is now Datafolha, the only national poll of the day that published the total vote, the same basis used since the start.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between October 9 and 15. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication, because firms can delay or cancel the release. Filters applied: national scope and a sample of 1,000 or more. Each registration linked to the TSE public lookup.

Date	Firm	Sample	Scope	TSE registration	Conf.
09/Oct	AtlasIntel	5,000	national	BR-03663/2026	0.9
09/Oct	Vox Brasil	2,100	national	BR-09623/2026	0.7
10/Oct	Ipespe	1,500	national	BR-00933/2026	0.6
11/Oct	DataTrends	2,000	national	BR-03576/2026	0.7
13/Oct	PoderData	3,000	national	BR-01209/2026	0.7
13/Oct	Gerp	2,400	national	BR-07877/2026	0.7
13/Oct	Gerp	2,400	national	BR-05187/2026	0.7
13/Oct	100 Cidades	2,000	national	BR-00650/2026	0.7
13/Oct	Nexus	2,000	national	BR-07997/2026	0.7

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists the 9 national polls in the window; 14 registrations from the same period were left out by scope or by sample. The status is registered and not published.

3. What the press covered

The endorsements. Augusto Cury, third place in the first round, declared his support for Flávio Bolsonaro on October 8, and Podemos made its own official on the same day. The PSDB freed its members to choose in the second round. Lula received the support of Unidade Popular, PSTU and PCB, and Renan Santos still backs neither of the two, according to CNN Brasil.

The candidates. Flávio Bolsonaro said that the constitutional amendment ending reelection could extend his term to five years if he is elected and that he intends to include Brazil in Donald Trump's Shield of the Americas. Lula criticized the fiscal adjustment plan of his opponent and, after Datafolha, said that he does not evaluate polls.

The Supreme Court. Alexandre de Moraes declared the final judgment of the case against Eduardo Bolsonaro for coercion in the course of proceedings and ordered the start of the serving of the sentence of 4 years and 2 months, in an initial semi-open regime, with his name in the arrest warrant database and his passports canceled. Eduardo Bolsonaro lives in the United States. Flávio Bolsonaro asked Moraes to resign, and Folha de S.Paulo counts 50 elected senators in favor of the impeachment of STF justices, below the 54 votes required. Luiz Fux requested access to investigations involving Jair Bolsonaro. In the Master case, Gabriel Galípolo reported to the Federal Police delays by Central Bank staff in the supervision of the bank.

4. Divergences of the day

Market × poll: the first poll after the ballot box measures a 4 point lead for Flávio Bolsonaro, from 45% to 49%, at the edge of the margin of 2 points either way. The winner contract pays 85.65% for him and 13.50% for Lula, more than six times as much for one as it pays for the other. Price measures the probability of winning on October 25, and the poll measures the voting intention of the week.

Poll × poll: in valid votes, Flávio Bolsonaro's lead is 4 points in Datafolha and 6 in PoderData/Aya, with fieldwork in the same week. The rejection measured is the same in both, 46% for Lula and 43% for him.

Endorsements × ballot box: with Augusto Cury, the eliminated candidates who declared support for Flávio Bolsonaro total 5.34% of the valid votes of the first round, and only Renan Santos, with 2.24%, is left without a side. Datafolha shows his lead going from 1.87 points at the ballot box to 4 points in the poll, without separating how much of that comes from the voters of the eliminated candidates.

In summary

The first national polls of the second round put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead, with 49% to 45% in Datafolha and 53% to 47% of valid votes in PoderData/Aya.
The winner contract goes to 85.65% for him, and the gap opens to 72.15pp.
Augusto Cury and Podemos declare their support for Flávio Bolsonaro, and Moraes orders Eduardo Bolsonaro to begin serving his sentence.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (quotes via the AFOS proxy, confirmed reading of Oct 8, 20:38 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls), TSE results (1st round tally).

October 8, 2026